Late on Rent Equals Late on Mortgage?

The stats for August are in:

The pandemic’s economic pain has battered renters far more than it has homeowners as some fresh data from the U.S. Census Bureau reminds us.

In Riverside and San Bernardino counties, 336,000 adults live in households that are behind on rent due in the week ended Aug. 31, according to the bureau.

That’s 30% of all Inland Empire tenants and almost twice the rate in Los Angeles and Orange counties where 537,000 who live in rentals were late payers — 17% of all tenants.

The Inland Empire payment challenges also look high compared with 15% of skipped rent checks statewide and across the U.S. in late August.

Lower-income workers, who tend to be tenants, have been hit harder by pandemic business restrictions, which have hammered many service industries such as dining, entertainment and tourism.

With various stimulus efforts gone or reduced, rent payments have become tougher to meet.

This also puts landlords in tough positions with various moratoriums on evictions further strapping their abilities to get paid.

Just ponder what a poll from the Public Policy Institute of California tells us about renters’ economic plight.

When asked to evaluate their financial feelings — 66% of renters statewide said “fair” or “poor” vs. just 40% for homeowners.

And not only are past-due rent payments piling up, the prospects of making the next rent check aren’t great in the Inland Empire.

Census found 261,000 renters had “no confidence” they can pay (or will defer paying) the landlord this month — 22% of tenants.

In L.A.-O.C., 412,000 renters are unlikely to pay — or 12% of tenants. Nationally, this expected non-payment rate is 11%; statewide it’s 10%.

Pandemic-linked financial woes in SoCal are plentiful and not just a renter issue. 

Note that July’s 16.8% unemployment rate in L.A.-O.C. was the highest among the 51 largest metro areas nationwide the Inland Empire at 13.4% was 9th worst.

But compare skipped rent payments to far fewer missed mortgage bills for homeowners.

Census found 423,000 living in homes they own in L.A.-O.C. were behind on their mortgage — 14% of homes with financing.

And 11% of these owners had no confidence or would defer their next mortgage payment.

In the Inland Empire, 164,067 are in households that were late on the mortgage — 11% of owners with financing.

Just 6% have no confidence or will defer the next house payment.

Owners are later payers outside the region, too.

Statewide, 10% are behind on the mortgage and 8% have doubts about the next payment.

Nationally, 10% are behind and 6% think they miss or defer the upcoming mortgage due.

“Variances are being heavily driven by the different industry and population composition among the state’s diverse metro areas,” said Taner Osman, research manager at Beacon Economics."

“Think about the industry sectors that dominate a region like Los Angeles – entertainment, leisure and hospitality, healthcare, retail – these are some of the hardest hit by the pandemic’s health-mandated closures and offer little possibility to work remotely; as such, they simply can’t show the same resilience seen, for example, in professional, scientific, and technical services.”

Orange County Real Estate Market Recap July 2020

I'm normally an optimist but I keep waiting for the market to crash...On a national level, home prices are up 7.5% since this time last year. The buying/selling season has been extended this year due to Covid. People are trying to optimize their lives for the new normal. They are looking for home office space and just more space. As we spend more time in our homes the need for privacy to conduct virtual meetings and to attend virtual classrooms has increased.

• US median home price is $354,900

Orange County Home Prices

Orange County continues to see home prices on the rise. Demand continues to grow fueled by low-interest rates and the available homes for sale are among the lowest levels in years. We currently have 4,449 homes for sale compared to 7,488 at this time last year.

Do I think This Is A Good Time To Buy?

Taking advantage of the low-interest rates makes sense. Overall the answer to this question is different for everyone. I would ask a few simple questions.

1. Have you been employed during the pandemic? Do you have an essential job?
2. How much savings do you have to put down for the purchase and how much will you have left for reserves?
3. How long do you plan to stay in this house?

If we do have another "crash" you will need to be prepared to buckle down and ride it out for the best outcome.

Orange County Real Estate Market Recap May 2020

The Coronavirus pandemic has certainly left a mark on the planet. One positive outcome is the planet seems to be in a state of healing. Less travel has decreased air pollution levels and reduced the seismic vibrations on earth.

May offered 2,940 new listings bringing the total to 6,520. The increase in new listings is up from April by nearly 1000. This is important because we had a lack of inventory and a resurgence in buyer demand. The days on market in May moved to 74 days down from 121 days in April. It is now a sellers market. 

A factor fueling the real estate market has to be the low interest rates. We closed a transaction in May with a jumbo loan. Our client locked the rate at 2.99% for a 30 year fixed. We were all shocked.

Orange County Real Estate Market Recap February 2020

Below is a Core-Logic recap of our current Orange County Real Estate Marketplace for the month of February 2020. Source; OC Register, 4/19/2020.

1. Home Prices Resale Homes +8.6%, Resale Condos +5.0% and New Home Sales -17.7% Median OC home price is $748,000 up versus one year ago (New High) $1,000,000 plus homes represent 50.2% of all OC listings
2. Sales Volume Resale Homes +34.5%, Resale Condos +20.5% and New Home Sales +8.5% Home sales volume is 2,431 up versus one year ago Inventory is at 4,161 up from one month ago OC Average days on market; 60 days.
3. Interest Rates 30-year fixed Mortgage rate is 3.31%, down versus last week 15-year fixed rate is 2.87%, down versus one week ago Average Home Payment is $3,478.65 down versus one year ago ARM’s represent 12.5% of all mortgages
4. STATS of THE DAY 37% of all US homes have no mortgage! Of the remaining 63%, 1 in 4 have over 50% equity Newport Beach average household income was $122,709 in 2019 (twice the national average) California home price appreciation was 4.23% in 2019 (Lowest in 7 year) The average California FICO score in 2019 was 708, 20th among all states… 67 million homeowners are over the age of 55! Time to market to BABY BOOMERS!
5. Did you Know? There are 14,000,000+ residences in California There were 34,000 homes sold in Orange County in 2019 There were 35,100 homes sold in Orange County in 2018 There were 38,400 homes sold in Orange County in 2017 There were 37,900 homes sold in Orange County in 2016 There were 53,900 homes sold in Orange County in 2003 614 homes sell every hour in the United States! The median US home sales price in 2019 was $274,500 (+7.8% VLY) There were 5,340,000 homes sold in the US in 2019
6. Market Trends Southern California median home price is $550,000 +7.2% VLY OC median home price is $748,000 +6.9% LA median home price is $621,250 +6.2% VLY San Diego median home price is $587,000 +6.8% VLY Ventura median home price is $575,000 +1.8% VLY Riverside median home price is $400,000 +6.2% VLY San Bernardino median home price is $350,000 +4.5% VLY

Orange County Real Estate Activity for the week of April 14th-20th:

Orange County Real Estate Agents Are Praying: "Flatten The Curve"

Thru March 2020:

First of all, we hope everyone is staying safe and healthy. These are trying times. We are focusing on the health and well being of our loved ones which includes mental health. At time of so much uncertainty, it can be difficult to cope with stress.

Housing demand and supply have been on a complete opposite curve as the Coronavirus curve. An extreme downward trend. We all want both curves to be inverted. 

Thru January 2020:

Below is a Core-Logic recap of our current Orange County Real Estate Marketplace for the month of January 2020. Source; OC Register, 3/8/2020.

• Home Prices Resale Homes +6.7%, Resale Condos +19.4% and New Home Sales -5.4%
• Median OC home price is $747,000 up versus one year ago (New High)
• $1,000,000 plus homes represent 49.7% of all OC listings

Interest Rates

• 30-year fixed Mortgage rate is 3.29%, way down versus last week
• 15-year fixed rate is 2.79%, down big versus one week ago
• Average Home Payment is $3,451.55 down versus one year ago
• ARM’s represent 12.5% of all mortgages

STATS of THE DAY

• Newport Beach average household income was $122,709 in 2019 (twice the national average)
• California home price appreciation was 4.23% in 2019 (Lowest in 7 year)
• The average California FICO score in 2019 was 708, 20th among all states…
• 67 million homeowners are over the age of 55! 

Did you Know?

• There are 14,000,000+ residences in California
• There were 35,100 homes sold in Orange County in 2018
• There were 38,400 homes sold in Orange County in 2017
• There were 37,900 homes sold in Orange County in 2016
• There were 38,400 homes sold in Orange County in 2017
• There were 53,900 homes sold in Orange County in 2003
• 614 homes sell every hour in the United States!
• The median US home sales price in 2019 was $274,500 (+7.8% VLY)
• There were 5,340,000 homes sold in the US in 2019

Market Trends

• Southern California median home price is $550,000 +7.2% VLY
• OC median home price is $747,000
• LA median home price is $628,250 +7.4% VLY
• Ventura median home price is $580,000 +.9% VLY
• San Diego median home price is $575,000 +4.5% VLY
• Riverside median home price is $401,250 +6.9% VLY
• San Bernardino median home price is $355,000 +7.7% VLY

SoCal home prices rose slightly in October, 2019

Home sales jumped, the latest indication of a warming housing market.

• The six-county region’s median price climbed 1.9% from a year earlier to reach $535,000 last month, according to Core Logic provided by DQNews.
• Sales, increased for the 2nd consecutive month, rising 8.2% from Oct. 2018.
• Recently there have been signs of a pickup. Economists attribute the change to rising incomes and falling mortgage rates that have made housing relatively more affordable. Average hourly earnings in California have risen by about 5% so far this year compared with 2018, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• And the avg. rate on a 30-year fixed mtg. was 3.66% this week, according to Freddie Mac, down more than a percentage point from a year ago.
• That saves buyers $260 on a monthly payment for a $535,000 house.

Most SoCal counties shared in the sales and price gains:

In L.A. County, the median price rose 4.2% to $620,000, sales climbed 5.6%.

In Orange County, the median rose 0.7% to $725,000, while sales climbed 6%.

In Riverside County, the median rose 3.9% to $395,000, sales climbed 11.4%.

In San Bernardino County, the median rose 5.2%, while sales climbed 8.1%.

In San Diego County, the median rose 2.6%, while sales climbed 10%.

In Ventura County, the median fell 3% to $580,000, while sales climbed 17%.

Home price gains are still muted compared with the beginning of 2018, which saw gains in the high single digits.

Bidding wars that drove buyers away were sitting on the sidelines as buyers aren’t willing to go extravagantly high on pricing anymore.

Chris Thornberg, founding partner with Beacon Economics, said the market should pick up further next year. “The economy is likely to keep growing, and California is likely to keep failing to build enough homes”.

In the third quarter, 31% of California households could reasonably afford to purchase the median-priced single-family house, according to the C.A.R.

That figure was 27% a year ago.

For those priced out, costs are high. Many renters who can’t afford to purchase a home are stuck paying unaffordable rent, putting them at risk of being forced from their communities & in the worst cases, onto the street.

Beyond a crushing human toll, there’s an economic cost as well.

An analysis released this week from the McKinsey Global Institute estimated the high cost of housing in L.A. County crowds out other spending and forces people into long commutes, reducing GDP by about 4% to 5%, or more than $30 billion annually.

SoCal Home Sales Soar 10.4% - Largest Jump in 3 years

OCRegister.com SoCal home sales rose 10.4% for the year ended in September 2019, the largest year-over year jump in nearly 3 years.For the month, 19,253 residences, newly built and existing homes, sold in the six-county region vs. 17,440 a year earlier, according to CoreLogic data The 10.4% rise was the largest jump since November 2016. Sales rose in all six counties for the first time in 29 months The rush to buy pushed up some prices. The 6 county median was $533,000 vs. $520,000 a 2.5% increase — but increases were in just 3 counties. Homebuying slowed in the past 2 years as higher loan rates, rising prices plus economic & political uncertainty scared off some house hunters. Sales had fallen, year- year, in 20 of the previous 26 months.

But in 2019 dramatic drop in mortgage rates to below 4% — a tumble that was as much as a record breaking 1.33% drop motivated buyers to act.

Here’s how the selling broke down in key Southern California niches.

Existing single-family homes: 13,365 sold — up 11.8% in a year. Median price: $560,000 — up 3.2% in a year.

Existing condos: 4,236 sold — up 13.6% in a year. Median price: $450,000 — flat in a year.

New homes: 1,652 sold, down 3.2% in a year.

Median price: $552,000 — down 3.6% in a year. Builders’ share of all sales was 8.6% vs. 10.1% a year ago.

And buyers have fewer choices with 42,577 listings, down 9% in a year.

County-by-County Homebuying (Sept 2018-2019)

Los Angeles: Sales rose 7.3%; its median of $618,000 was up 3.9% in a year.

Orange: Sales rose 13.1%; its median of $723,000 was down 2.3% in a year.

Housing Report for September 2019

Home Prices

• Resale Homes +0.6%, Resale Condos -2.5% and New Home Sales -1.3%
• All totaled, OC home values are down -0.7% versus last year Median OC home price is $720,000 up versus one year ago (-$20k from peak)
• $1,000,000 plus homes represent 43.5% of all OC listings

Sales Volume

• Resale Homes +10.8%, Resale Condos +2.5% and New Home Sales -39.8%
• All totaled, OC sales volume is down +1.8% versus last year
• Home sales volume is 3,273 up versus one year ago Inventory is at 6,860 down from one month ago
• OC Average days on market; 87 days. Over $1,250,000 is 200+ days!

Interest Rates

• 30-year fixed Mortgage rate is 3.65%, up versus last week
• 15-year fixed rate is 3.14%, down versus one week ago
• Average Home Payment is $3,335.09 down versus one year ago
• ARM’s represent 12.5% of all mortgages

STAT of THE DAY

• It has been an odd summer with listings only up .05% versus last year but still +6% above the 8-year average for this time of year. New escrows are up 7.6% versus last year but 2.6% below the 8-year norm.

Did you Know?

• There are 14,000,000+ residences in California
• US home ownership is at 64.4% (up versus last year)
• California home ownership is 55.2% (up versus last year)
• OC/LA home ownership is 47.3% (down from last year)
• California led the nation in 2017 with lowest vacancy rate at 8.3%
• There were 402,705 SFR homes sales in CA in 2018
• There were 35,020 homes sold in Orange County in 2018
• There were 37,881 homes sold in Orange County in 2017
• It takes a $169,850 a year income to buy an OC median-priced home?
• 614 homes sell every hour in the United States!

Facts

• Southern California median home price is $540,000
• OC median home price is $719,500
• LA median home price is $619,000
• Ventura median home price is $599,000
• San Diego median home price is $584,000
• Riverside median home price is $390,000
• San Bernardino median home price is $346,000

Real Estate Trends

• Price adjustments are up across the US, CA and Orange County
• Foreign investor purchases down 41% in CA versus last year
• 110k new homes in the US this year (down 65% from 1986)
• CA bankruptcies rise for the first time in 8 years (+2% VLY)
• Listings are at a 5-year high
• The last time there were these many homes on the market was 2014
• Orange County has 19% more inventory than this time last year
• Escrows are down 2% and days on the market are up 18%
• Only 1.19% of all OC properties currently listed as distressed

Real Estate Forecast

1. Core-Logic forecasts US home prices will increase 4.8% in 2019
2. CAR Forecasts California home prices will rise 3.1% in 2019
3. Cal State Fullerton forecasts a 4-5% prices in increase in SoCal in 2019
4. Chapman University forecasts a 2.9% price increase for OC in 2019

Orange County Housing Report for August 2019

Below is a Core-Logic recap of our current Orange County Real Estate Marketplace for the 22 business days ending August 8th, 2019. Source; OC Register, 9/8/2019.

Home Prices

Resale Homes +0.7%, Resale Condos -2.7% and New Home Sales -12.8% All totaled, OC home values are up -3.2% versus last year Median OC home price is $715,000 up versus one year ago (-$25k from peak) $1,000,000 plus homes represent 43.1% of all OC listings

Sales Volume

Resale Homes +1.1%, Resale Condos +1.9% and New Home Sales -32.9% All totaled, OC sales volume is up -2.3% versus last year Home sales volume is 3,134 up versus one year ago Inventory is at 7,307 down from one month ago OC Average days on market; 87 days

Interest Rates

30-year fixed Mortgage rate is 3.49%, down versus last week 15-year fixed rate is 3.00%, down versus one week ago Average Home Payment is $3,481.03 down versus one year ago ARM’s represent 13.9% of all mortgages

STAT of THE DAY This year’s sharply falling mortgage rates boosted the number of SoCal households that theoretically could qualify to buy an entry level home to 257,000! That’s a lot of new potential buyers.

Did you Know? There are 14,000,000+ residences in California US home ownership is at 64.4% (up versus last year) California home ownership is 55.2% (up versus last year) OC/LA home ownership is 47.3% (down from last year) California led the nation in 2017 with lowest vacancy rate at 8.3% There were 402,705 SFR homes sales in CA in 2018 There were 35,020 homes sold in Orange County in 2018 There were 37,881 homes sold in Orange County in 2017 It takes a $169,850 a year income to buy an OC median priced home? 614 homes sell every hour in the United States!

Facts Southern California median home price is $540,000 (sales up 3.7%) OC median home price is $715,000 (sales down 2.3%) LA median home price is $635,000 (sales flat 0%) Ventura median home price is $595,000 (sales up 6.2%) San Diego median home price is $580,000 (sales up 10.1%) Riverside median home price is $395,000 (sales up 8.6%) San Bernardino median home price is $340,000 (sales up 3.3%)

Trends Foreign investor purchases down 41% in CA versus last year 110k new homes in the US this year (down 65% from 1986) CA bankruptcies rise for the first time in 8 years (+2% VLY) Listings are at a 5-year high The last time there were these many homes on the market was 2014 Orange County has 19% more inventory than this time last year Escrows are down 2% and days on the market are up 18% Only 1.19% of all OC properties currently listed as distressed

Forecast CAR forecasts a -6.9% decline in sales for 2019 Core-Logic forecasts US home prices will increase 4.8% in 2019 CAR Forecasts California home prices will rise 3.1% in 2019 Cal State Fullerton forecasts a 4-5% prices in increase in SoCal in 2019 Chapman University forecasts a 2.9% price increase for OC in 2019

Orange County Housing Report for the month of July 2019

Facts

• Southern California median home price is $541,250 (sales down 8.8%)
• OC median home price is $738,000 (sales down 9.4%)
• LA median home price is $618,000 (sales down 12.1%)
• San Diego median home price is $590,000 (saleHome Prices
• Resale Homes +2.3%, Resale Condos +2.2% and New Home Sales +14.7%
• All totaled, OC home values are up +1.0% versus last year
• Median OC home price is $738,250 up versus one year ago (-$2k from peak)
• $1,000,000 plus homes represent 42.8% of all OC listings

Sales Volume

• Resale Homes +0.0%, Resale Condos -5.0% and New Home Sales -36.3%
• All totaled, OC sales volume is up -5.7% versus last year
• Home sales volume is 3,447 up versus one year ago
• Inventory is at 7,601 up from one month ago
• OC Average days on market; 91 days

Interest Rates

• 30-year fixed Mortgage rate is 3.60%, huge drop versus last week
• 15-year fixed rate is 3.05%, down versus one week ago
• Average Home Payment is $3,479.32 down versus one year ago
• ARM’s represent 16.0% of all mortgages

STAT of THE DAY

This year’s sharply falling mortgage rates boosted the number of SoCal households that theoretically could qualify to buy an entry level home to 257,000! That’s a lot of new potential buyers…

Did you Know?

• There are 14,000,000+ residences in California
• US home ownership is at 64.4% (up versus last year)
• California home ownership is 55.2% (up versus last year)
• OC/LA home ownership is 47.3% (down from last year)
• California led the nation in 2017 with lowest vacancy rate at 8.3%
• There were 402,705 SFR homes sales in CA in 2018
• There were 35,020 homes sold in Orange County in 2018
• There were 37,881 homes sold in Orange County in 2017
• It takes a $169,850 a year income to buy an OC median priced home?
• 614 homes sell every hour in the United States! s down 7.4%)
• Ventura median home price is $580,000 (sales up 1.6%)
• Riverside median home price is $399,000 (sales down 4.0%)
• San Bernardino median home price is $340,000 (sales down 11.4%) Only 28.6% of all OC earners can purchase a home

Trends

• Foreign investor purchases down 41% in CA versus last year
• 110k new homes in the US this year (down 65% from 1986)
• CA bankruptcies rise for the first time in 8 years (+2% VLY)
• Listings are at a 5-year high
• The last time there were these many homes on the market was 2014
• Orange County has 19% more inventory than this time last year
• Escrows are down 2% and days on the market are up 18%
• Only 1.19% of all OC properties currently listed as distressed

Forecast

• CAR forecasts a -6.9% decline in sales for 2019
• Core-Logic forecasts US home prices will increase 4.8% in 2019
• CAR Forecasts California home prices will rise 3.1% in 2019
• Cal State Fullerton forecasts a 4-5% prices in increase in SoCal in 2019
• Chapman University forecasts a 2.9% price increase for OC in 2019

Orange County Housing Report, August 5th, 2019

July ended with a large number of active listings for Orange County and a slight increase in closed sales. 

Total active listings: 9,260

New Listings in July: 3,664

Total closed sales: 2,865

Not much has changed from last month when looking at the numbers. The days on market has slightly increased. The data from the Infosparks and the CRMLS shows an average of 44 days on market. 

Orange County homes for sale under $750,000

Orange County homes for sale $750,000-$1,000,000

Orange County homes for sale from $1,000,000-$2,000,000

Orange County homes for sale over $2,000,000

Orange County Housing Report, July 2nd, 2019

Total Active listings: 9,467 we had an increase in inventory from May

• Single Family Homes: 6,169
• Condos and Townhomes: 2,765

Closed Sales: 2,693 which is slightly down from May closings

Supply continues to be on the upswing while closings are slightly down. With the increase in active listings, it becomes more important to price your home correctly. The strategy of "testing the market" on the MLS is costing time and money. It costs more time on the market which statistically reduces the final sale price.

It will be very important to look at all the available data to price your home. Comparable sales, condition of the property, price per square foot can all factor in the price.

We will do the homework and then put together the right marketing strategy for your home.

Orange County Housing Report, June 1st, 2019

Total Active listings: 8,778

• Single Family Homes: 5,748
• Condos and Townhomes: 2,601

Closed Sales: 2,935

• Single Family Homes: 1,854
• Condos and Townhomes: 1,009

Supply is on an upswing since December of 2018 which is the norm every year after the holidays. July of 2014 was our highest peak of inventory and we could surpass that in the next few weeks if demand stays soft.

We are showing a shrinking inventory of housing under $500,000 (currently 1,478). Housing units priced under $500,000 will have a tendency to sell quickly but the housing units at this price point are fading away.

Conversely we have 3,831 units for sale over $1,000,000 in Orange County.