Orange County Housing Report - May 20, 2019

Sellers have until the end of July to get their homes into escrow, indicating that the price better be right.

Pricing: Expired listings are up 64% so far in 2019, illustrating how crucial pricing is this year to avoid becoming another statistic.

Ignoring the expert on pricing advice is understandable, but unfortunate. The best advice is to lean into their years of experience and understanding of current market conditions, trends, and pricing strategies. The emotions behind pricing must be removed to find success. A buyer’s lens is much different. They do not want to inherit deferred maintenance. They want to see upgrades. The location and lot size are important considerations. Most importantly, buyers are not willing to overpay for a home, especially in 2019.

The active listing inventory is at its highest level since 2011. There are 29% more homes on the market compared to last year. With more inventory, the number of unsuccessful sellers is escalating. So far this year, there have been 3,455 expired listings, up 64% compared to last year. Based upon the number of closed sales through April, 30% of homes that were marketed did not find success. At this time last year, it was only 17%.

The chances of finding success have dropped substantially. Pricing a home accurately is more important today than in years. This is not the Spring Markets of 2012 through 2018. The average Expected Market Time (the time from the initial FOR SALE sign to opening escrow) during those years was 56 days. It is at 84 days today, nearly a month longer. The Expected Market Time is a factor of both supply and demand. There is a lot more seller competition with the extra supply; and, demand is muted as well. Demand (number of pending sales in the prior 30-days) is down 14% compared to the last seven years.

How should sellers approach the housing market? The best approach is to be sure to lean into the expert, the real estate professional, and price a home according to its Fair Market Value. This is determined by condition, upgrades, and location. The REALTOR® will be able to pull their emotion out of a home and objectively arrive at the price that will result in a sale. The second step is to be patient. This housing market is no longer instantaneous. Finally, after being exposed to the market for a while and receiving objective feedback directly from buyers, do not be afraid to make some adjustments in condition and price.

How should buyers approach the housing market? Remember, it is NOT a Buyer’s Market. It is not even a Balanced Market. Currently, it is a slight Seller’s Market. That means that when a home is accurately priced, it will generate buyers’ interest. On average, homes are selling within 2% of their asking price. Lowball offers will only result in wasting everyone’s time. Jump on homes that match your specified criteria and are priced according to their Fair Market Value.

Active Inventory: In the past couple of weeks, the active inventory surpassed last year’s peak and will continue to climb. In the past two weeks, the active listing inventory increased by 228 homes, up 3%, and now totals 7,413, surpassing last year’s peak of 7,292. That’s the highest level since September 2014. It will continue to climb until peaking sometime this summer, most likely mid-August. By then the inventory will reach its highest level since 2011. That would be a lot more seller competition and a much slower market than today.

Last year at this time there were 5,730 homes on the market. That means that there are 29% more homes available today. This is the highest level of homes on the market for this time of the year since 2011.

Demand: In the past couple of weeks, demand was nearly unchanged. Demand, the number of new pending sales over the prior month, increased by 2 pending sales in the past two weeks, nearly unchanged, and now totals 2,655. After an initial slow start to the year, demand surged from February through April. In May, it slightly came off of those highs and most likely peaked early for 2019. Even with interest rates dropping to 4%, there are external economic headwinds which are continuing to mute demand. Demand will not change much from here. It will remain relatively the same through mid-June. From there, expect demand to slowly and systematically fall for the remainder of the year, starting with numerous summer distractions. Current demand is as strong as it is going to get.

Last year at this time, there were 71 more pending sales, 3% more than today.

The current Expected Market Time increased from 81days to 84 days in the past two weeks, a slight Seller’s Market. It is still the highest reading for this time of the year since 2011. Last year, the Expected Market Time was at 63 days, better than today.

Luxury End: The luxury market continued to slow. In the past two weeks, demand for homes above $1.25 million decreased by 31 pending sales, an 8% drop, and now totals 361. That is back to back 8% drops over the past month. The luxury home inventory grew by 114 homes and now totals 2,483, a 5% increase and its highest level in years. The overall expected market time for homes priced above $1.25 million increased from 181 days to 206 over the past two weeks, a significant increase. Four weeks ago it was at 161 days.

Year over year, luxury demand is down by 76 pending sales or 17%, and the active luxury listing inventory is up by an additional 384 homes or 18%. Extra seller competition and muted demand in the luxury ranges in 2019 is a theme that is getting louder. The expected market time last year was at 144 days, noticeably less compared to today.

For homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two weeks, the expected market time decreased from 128 to 125 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time increased from 134 to 174 days. For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time increased from 228 to 262 days. For homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time increased from 463 to 568 days. At 568 days, a seller would be looking at placing their home into escrow around December of 2020.

Orange County Housing Market Summary:

• The active listing inventory increased by 228 homes in the past two weeks, up 3%, and now totals 7,413, the highest level since September 2014. Last year, there were 5,730 homes on the market, 1,683 fewer than today. There are 29% more homes than last year.
• Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased by 2 pending sales in the past two weeks, nearly unchanged, and now totals 2,655. Last year, there were 2,726 pending sales, 3% more than today.
• The Expected Market Time for all of Orange County increased from 81 days two weeks ago to 84 days today, a slight Seller’s Market (between 60 to 90 days) and the highest level for this time of the year since 2011. It was at 63 days last year.
• For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a slight Seller’s Market (between 60 and 90 days) with an expected market time of 61 days. This range represents 39% of the active inventory and 54% of demand.
• For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 63 days, a slight Seller’s Market. This range represents 18% of the active inventory and 24% of demand.
• For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 93 days, a Balanced Market.
• For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two weeks, the expected market time decreased from 128 to 125 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time increased from 134 to 174 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time increased from 228 to 262 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time increased from 463 to 568 days.
• The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 34% of the inventory and only 14% of demand.
• Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.8% of all listings and 1.4% of demand. There are only 22 foreclosures and 41 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 63 total distressed homes on the active market, down 5 in the last two weeks. Last year there were 42 total distressed homes on the market, fewer than today.
• There were 2,558 closed residential resales in April, 2% fewer than April 2018’s 2,614 closed sales. April marked a 13% increase from March 2019. The sales to list price ratio was 97.9% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.3% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.4%. That means that 99.3% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.

Orange County Housing Report - May 6, 2019

Housing demand in Orange County has already peaked, meaning the market will slow from here.

With a slight rise in interest rates since dropping to 4% at the end of March, demand peaked in April this year.

For sellers who are holding their collective breath anticipating the Spring Market to continue to accelerate from here, they will be disappointed. Demand, the last month of pending sales, peaked two weeks ago and dropped 3% since. It currently sits at 2,653 pending sales. From here, it will remain relatively the same until it methodically drops slowly but surely from June through the end of the year.

If demand is going to remain at roughly the same high level, what is the big deal? The active inventory will grow from here until peaking sometime in August. On average, in the past six years, the active inventory has grown by 1,350 homes, a 26% rise. With demand plateauing and then dropping, coupled with a rising inventory, the Expected Market Time (from coming on the market to opening escrow) will rise. The market will slow from here. The longer a homeowner waits to come on the market, the longer it will take to sell their home. The current Expected Market Time for all of Orange County is 81 days, rising from 76 days just two weeks ago. That is a slight Seller’s Market, where homes are not appreciating much at all, but sellers get to call more of the shots. It will continue to climb and surpass the 90-day mark sometime during the summer, reaching a Balanced Market, one that does not favor sellers or buyers (between 90 and 120 days).

Success can still be found for homeowners who come on the market in June or July, but there will be more sellers competing against each other for a slightly smaller pool of buyers. For sellers, accurately pricing a home by leaning into their REALTOR® is crucial in order to find success.

Erroneously and aggressively overpricing a home right out of the gates is a waste of time and misses the opportunity to take advantage of the very best time to sell, the first couple of weeks a home enters the fray. That’s when apps, websites, and buyers highlight the fact that a NEW LISTING has hit the market. When a home reduces the price down the road, buyers are not as enthusiastic with the PRICE REDUCED banner as they were when they were scrolling through all 40 photos when the home initially hit the market. Take advantage of the first couple of weeks of market enthusiasm and get that price right.

Don’t be a statistic: 16% of all homes in Southern California reduced their asking price just last week.

Active Inventory: In the past couple of weeks, the active inventory increased by 4%. In the past two weeks, the active listing inventory increased by 252 homes, up 4%, and now totals 7,185, surpassing the 7,000-home mark for the first time since November. That’s a six-month high and it will only increase from here. The sharp rise in the inventory was the largest so far this year. The inventory has climbed, on average, by 26% in the past six years from now through mid-August. Even if the inventory just climbed 20%, that would place it at 8,600 homes, the highest peak since 2011. That would be a lot more seller competition.

Last year at this time there were 5,434 homes on the market. That means that there are 32% more homes available today. This is the highest level of homes on the market for this time of the year since 2011.

Demand: In the past couple of weeks, demand decreased by 3%. Demand, the number of new pending sales over the prior month, dropped by 57 pending sales in the past two weeks, down 2%, and now totals 2,653. It was the first drop in demand this year. It appears as if demand peaked a little earlier this year, in April. Demand had experienced a giant uptick a couple of weeks ago due to rates dropping all the way to 4%. However, rates have been slowly rising to 4.25%, eroding some of the low rate enthusiasm. While demand is still excellent, it will not change much from here. It will remain relatively the same through mid-June. From there, expect demand to slowly and systematically fall for the remainder of the year. Summer distractions will initially set in, followed by the start of school, and then finally all of the distractions of the holidays. Current demand is as strong as it is going to get.

Last year at this time, there were 22 more pending sales, 1% more than today.

Luxury End: The luxury market slowed significantly in the past two weeks. In the past two weeks, demand for homes above $1.25 million decreased by 32 pending sales, an 8% drop, and now totals 392. The luxury home inventory grew by 90 homes and now totals 2,369, a 4% increase, its highest level in years. The overall expected market time for homes priced above $1.25 million increased from 161 days to 181 over the past two weeks, a significant increase.

Year over year, luxury demand is down by 20 pending sales or 8%, and the active luxury listing inventory is up by an additional 344 homes or 17%. Extra seller competition in the luxury ranges in 2019 is a theme that will carry through to the end of the year. The expected market time last year was at 147 days, noticeably less compared to today.

For homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two weeks, the expected market time increased from 108 to 128 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time increased from 133 to 134 days. For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time increased from 186 to 228 days. For homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time increased from 425 to 463 days. At 463 days, a seller would be looking at placing their home into escrow around August of 2020.

Orange County Housing Market Summary:

• The active listing inventory increased by 252 homes in the past two weeks, up 4%, and now totals 7,185. It was the largest increase so far this year. Last year, there were 5,434 homes on the market, 1,751 fewer than today. There are 32% more homes than last year.
• Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 71 pending sales in the past two weeks, down 3%, and now totals 2,653. Last year, there were 2,675 pending sales, 1% more than today.
• The Expected Market Time for all of Orange County increased from 76 days two weeks ago to 81 days today, a slight Seller’s Market (between 60 to 90 days) and the highest level for this time of the year since 2011. It was at 61 days last year.
• For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a Seller’s Market (less than 60 days) with an expected market time of 58 days. This range represents 39% of the active inventory and 55% of demand.
• For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 70 days, a slight Seller’s Market. This range represents 19% of the active inventory and 22% of demand.
• For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 86 days, a slight Seller’s Market.
• For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two weeks, the expected market time increased from 108 to 128 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time increased from 133 to 134 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time increased from 186 to 228 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time increased from 425 to 463 days.
• The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 33% of the inventory and only 15% of demand.
• Distressed homes, both short sales, and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.9% of all listings and 1.3% of demand. There are only 27 foreclosures and 41 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 68 total distressed homes on the active market, up 9 in the last two weeks. Last year there were 44 total distressed homes on the market, fewer than today.
• There were 2,558 closed residential resales in April, 2% fewer than April 2018’s 2,614 closed sales. April marked a 13% increase from March 2019. The sales to list price ratio was 97.9% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.3% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.4%. That means that 99.3% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.

Orange County Housing Report: April 22, 2019

The Right Time To Buy And Sell: With low-interest rates and a surge in demand, it is a good time for both buyers and sellers to make a move.

When is “the” best time to make a move? For prospective buyers and sellers, the current housing conditions and trends point to NOW. How can it be both an excellent time to buy and sell at the very same time? For buyers, it is all about interest rates. For sellers, it is all about top dollar and cashing in on this year’s consistent, growing demand.

At the end of 2018, prognosticators, economic experts, and major financial institutions were all forecasting interest rates anywhere from 5.25% to 6% in 2019. That seemed more than reasonable given the fact that rates had climbed from 3.95% at the beginning of 2018 to nearly 5% by November. Yet, after an exceptionally rocky December for Wall Street and news of an economic slowdown in both China and Europe, interest rates retreated and dropped to 4%. Since then, they have risen slightly to about 4.2%, where they stand today. The bottom line, mortgage rates are back down to historical lows. It is a great time to be a buyer.

These rates could be gone tomorrow if more and more positive economic news hits the presses. The tremendous twist of fate has allowed buyers to afford a lot more home. Affordability improved radically. For a buyer looking for a payment of about $3,000 per month with 20% down, they are now looking at purchasing a home priced at $762,500 with a 4.25% mortgage rate. Compare that to last November when rates were just about 5%; that $3,000 per month payment allowed a buyer to purchase a home at $698,750. The drop in rates has allowed a buyer to purchase $63,750 more home, yet the mortgage payment did not change.

For sellers, lower rates have pushed the market from a slight Buyer’s Market at the end of 2018 and start to January of this year, to a Balanced Market in February, to a slight Buyer’s Market today. Last month, rates dropped nearly a half of a percentage point, dropping from 4.5% to nearly 4%. That plunge resulted in a considerable uptick in demand (prior 30-days of pending sales). In the past two weeks alone, demand increased by 11%, while the active inventory only increased by 1%. As a result, the Expected Market Time (the number of days it would take for a home placed on the market today to open escrow down the road) dropped from 84 to 76 days, the largest drop at this time of year since 2009. This dip is not typical for mid-April.

Why is it such a great time to sell right now? From here, demand typically rises slowly until peaking by the end of May. With the distractions of graduation and the kids off for summer break, demand starts to slow in June. In the past seven years, from May to August, demand drops, on average, by 10%. At the same time, the inventory increased, on average, by 18%. With falling demand and an increasing supply of homes that sellers are competing against, the Expected Market Time rises. The best time of the year for sellers, with the lowest Expected Market Time, is from February until mid-May.

For sellers to properly take advantage of the most optimal time to sell, they need to be on the market now and priced right. Currently, there are plenty of homes that are flying off the market with multiple offers, often selling for more than their asking prices. BUT, there are also plenty of homes that are sitting on the market with no interest, or offers to purchase that come in well below the asking price. Accurately pricing a home based upon the condition, location, upgrades, and overall appeal is fundamental in order to find success. Any home that looks like the final reveal on one of the many HGTV programs where a fixer-upper is transformed into a dream home, will procure an avalanche of offers in today’s market IF it is priced well. Pricing a home too aggressively will result in very little activity and ultimately will just sit, missing the opportunity to cash in on the best time of the year to sell.

The bottom line: the best time of the year for buyers and sellers to make a move is right now.

Active Inventory: In the past couple of weeks, the active inventory increased by 1%. In the past two weeks, the active listing inventory increased by 57 homes, up 1%, and now totals 6,933, knocking on the door of 7,000 for the first time since November. Expect the inventory to continue to climb from now until it peaks sometime between July and August. The inventory will most likely eclipse the 8,000 home level and reach its highest summer peak since 2011.

Last year at this time there were 5,144 homes on the market. That means that there are 35% more homes available today. This is the highest level of homes on the market for this time of the year since 2011.

Demand: In the past couple of weeks, demand increased by an astonishing 11%. Demand, the number of new pending sales over the prior month, jumped by 279 pending sales in the past two weeks, up 11%, and now totals 2,272, surpassing last year’s level for the first time since July 2017. This spike is unusual for this time of the year, most likely prompted by the massive drop in rates last month. From here, expect demand to slowly rise as it draws closer to its peak, sometime in May. After that, it will drop for the remainder of the year.

Last year at this time, there were 84 fewer pending sales, 3% fewer than today.

Luxury End: The luxury market improved dramatically in the past two weeks. In the past two weeks, demand for homes above $1.25 million increased by 54 pending sales, a 15% increase, and now totals 424, its highest level since mid-May 2018. The luxury home inventory grew by 69 homes and now totals 2,279, a 3% increase. The overall expected market time for homes priced above $1.25 million decreased from 179 days to 161 over the past two- weeks, a significant drop.

Year over year, luxury demand is up by 53 pending sales or 14%, and the active luxury listing inventory is up by an additional 305 homes or 15%. There is a lot more seller competition so far this year compared to 2018. The expected market time last year was at 160 days, nearly identical to today.

For homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two weeks, the expected market time decreased from 109 to 108 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 154 to 133 days. For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 222 to 186 days. For homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 466 to 425 days. At 466 days, a seller would be looking at placing their home into escrow around June of 2020.

Orange County Housing Market Summary:

• The active listing inventory increased by 57 homes in the past two weeks, up 1%, and now totals 6,933. Last year, there were 5,144 homes on the market, 1,789 fewer than today. There are 35% more homes than last year.
• So far this year, 3% fewer homes came on the market below $500,000 compared to 2018, and there were 15% fewer closed sales. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is continuing to vanish.
• Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased by 279 pending sales in the past two weeks, up 11%, and now totals 2,724, surpassing the prior year for the first time since July 2017. Last year, there were 2,340 pending sales, 3% fewer than today.
• The Expected Market Time for all of Orange County decreased from 84 days two weeks ago to 76 days today, a slight Seller’s Market (between 60 to 90 days) and the highest level for this time of the year since 2011. It was at 58 days last year.
• For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a Seller’s Market (less than 60 days) with an expected market time of 55 days. This range represents 40% of the active inventory and 55% of demand.
• For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 66 days, a slight Seller’s Market. This range represents 18% of the active inventory and 21% of demand.
• For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 83 days, a slight Seller’s Market.
• For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two weeks, the expected market time decreased from 109 to 108 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 154 to 133 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 222 to 186 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 466 to 425 days.
• The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 33% of the inventory and only 16% of demand.
• Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.9% of all listings and 1% of demand. There are only 23 foreclosures and 36 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 59 total distressed homes on the active market, down 2 in the last two-weeks. Last year there were 43 total distressed homes on the market, slightly fewer than today.
• There were 2,265 closed residential resales in March, 13% fewer than March 2018’s 2,613 closed sales. March marked a 47% increase from February 2019. The sales to list price ratio was 97.3% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.4% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.5%. That means that 99.1% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.

Orange County Housing Report: April 8, 2019

This is the time of the year when more sellers come on the market than any other time of the year.

More Seller Competition: 

Nearly a third of all homes that are placed on the market during the year occur from April through June. There has already been an uptick in the number of homes coming on the market within the last couple of weeks. As a result, the active listing inventory in Orange County grew by 5%, adding an additional 344 homes. It now sits at 6,876 homes, its highest level since mid-November of 2018.

Right now, it is the best time of the year to sell a home in terms of buyer demand. Demand is currently increasing as well, growing by 4% in the past two weeks. It will peak by mid-May. Yet, even with increasing demand, it does not mean that the market is getting hotter. In fact, what you see is what you get. The market will not improve any more than where it is today. This is due to the fact that while demand is rising, so is the active listing inventory. The inventory is rising slightly faster than demand. The added seller competition is offsetting any improvement in demand.

In looking at the Expected Market Time for Orange County (that is the number of days from coming on the market to opening escrow), it has dropped like a rock from the beginning of the year, transitioning from a slight Buyer’s Market to a Balanced Market to a slight Seller’s Market, where it stands today. It dropped from 152 days on January 10th to 84 days today.

For those sellers holding their collective breath in anticipation of a hot Spring, that is not going to occur. Instead, it will be a lukewarm housing market. The current Expected Market Time of 84 days is the highest level for this time of the year since 2011. Last year at this time it was a HOT Seller’s Market and the Expected Market Time was at 54 days.

The difference between a slight Seller’s Market (between 60 to 90 days) and a hot Seller’s Market (less than 60 days) is that the number of buyer showings has dropped, the number of multiple offer situations has dropped, home appreciation has stalled and is only slight rising, and open house activity has fallen. It is quite simply not as hot as prior years. Sellers still get to call the shots, but when the market does not move as quickly, home prices do not move as quickly as well.

Sellers need to understand that the market is not going to get better. In fact, by mid-May, it will start to slow. That is when demand starts to drop with all the distractions of graduation and summertime. The inventory continues to rise until peaking sometime in July to August. With slightly dropping demand and increasing seller competition in the form of a rising active listing inventory, the Expected Market Time will grow and the market will slow.

The key for sellers is to realistically price their homes right now versus waiting down the road to get real when the market is slowing.

Active Inventory: In the past couple of weeks, the active inventory increased by 5%. In the past two weeks, the active listing inventory increased by 344 homes, up 5%, and now totals 6,876, the largest two-week increase since April of last year. This spike is not only because it is the Spring Market; it is also due to the torrential downpours now being in the past and warmer dryer weather ahead in the forecast.  We can expect the inventory to continue to climb from here until it peaks sometime this summer between July and August. The inventory will most likely eclipse the 8,000 home level for the first time since 2014 and it may reach heights not seen since the start of 2012, surpassing 8,500 homes.

Last year at this time there were 4,708 homes on the market. That means that there are 46% more homes available today. This is the highest level of homes on the market for this time of the year since 2011.

Demand: In the past couple of weeks, demand increased by 4%. Demand, the number of new pending sales over the prior month, continued to rise, increasing by 95 pending sales in the past two weeks, up 4%, and now totals 2,445. Demand is not growing as rapidly after soaring for the first two-and-a-half months of this year, coming off lows not seen since 2008. Demand also slows as it draws closer to its peak, sometime in May. From there, demand will slowly diminish through the rest of the Spring and Summer Markets.

The retreat in interest rates this year has helped demand considerably. As a result, housing has evolved from a slight Buyer’s Market to a slight Seller’s Market, where it stands today. Part of why the market has not developed further to a hot Seller’s Market is that there still is buyer apprehension in approaching housing. They are careful not to overpay and are looking to offer as close to a home’s Fair Market Value as possible. They are not willing to stretch the asking price, which is why homes are currently not appreciating as fast as they have in prior years.

Last year at this time, there were 157 additional pending sales, 6% more than today.

Luxury End:  The luxury inventory is climbing faster than luxury demand.

In the past two weeks, demand for homes above $1.25 million increased by 18 pending sales, a 5% increase, and now totals 370, its highest level since mid-June 2018. The increase in demand was offset by a spike in the luxury home inventory of 120, and now totals 2,210, a 6% increase. The overall expected market time for homes priced above $1.25 million increased from 178 days to 179 over the past two weeks, a slight increase.

Year over year, luxury demand is up by 17 pending sales or 5%, and the active luxury listing inventory is up by an additional 351 homes, or 19%. There is a lot more seller competition so far this year compared to 2018. The expected market time last year was at 158 days, better than today.

For homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two weeks, the expected market time increased from 103 to 109 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time increased from 146 to 154 days. For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 233 to 222 days. For homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 562 to 466 days. At 466 days, a seller would be looking at placing their home into escrow around July of 2020.

Orange County Housing Market Summary:

• The active listing inventory increased by 344 homes in the past two weeks, up 5%, and now totals 6,876. Last year, there were 4,708 homes on the market, 2,168 fewer than today. There are 46% more homes than last year.
• So far this year, 3% fewer homes came on the market below $500,000 compared to 2018, and there were 15% fewer closed sales. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is continuing to vanish.
• Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased by 95 pending sales in the past two-weeks, up 4%, and now totals 2,445, its lowest level for this time of the year since 2008. Last year, there were 2,602 pending sales, 6% more than today.
• The Expected Market Time for all of Orange County increased from 83 days two weeks ago to 84 days today, a slight Seller’s Market (between 60 to 90 days) and the highest level for this time of the year since 2011. It was at 54 days last year.
• For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a slight Seller’s Market (between 60 and 90 days) with an expected market time of 62 days. This range represents 41% of the active inventory and 55% of demand.
• For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 73 days, a slight Seller’s Market. This range represents 18% of the active inventory and 21% of demand.
• For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 90 days, a slight Seller’s Market. For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two weeks, the expected market time increased from 103 to 109 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time increased from 146 to 154 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 230 to 222 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 562 to 466 days.
• The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 32% of the inventory and only 16% of demand.
• Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.8% of all listings and 1.8% of demand. There are only 19 foreclosures and 30 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 49 total distressed homes on the active market, down two from two-weeks ago. Last year there were 39 total distressed homes on the market, slightly less than today.
• There were 2,265 closed residential resales in March, 13% fewer than March 2018’s 2,613 closed sales. March marked a 47% increase from February 2019. The sales to list price ratio was 97.3% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.4% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.5%. That means that 99.1% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.

Orange County Housing Report: March 25, 2019

Many buyers are sitting on the fence waiting for interest rates to fall, but don’t know when to cash in their chips.

Gambling on Rates: Interest rates have fallen to 4.25%, the lowest level in over a year. No matter what your age, or what kind of music you like, everybody has listened to and knows the lyrics to Kenny Roger’s “The Gambler.” “You’ve got to know when to hold ‘em. Know when to fold ‘em. Know when to walk away. And know when to run.” It is a song about a young man who stumbles upon gambling advice from a seasoned, old, veteran gambler “on a train bound for nowhere.”

So many potential buyers are just like the young gambler, they simply don’t know when they should walk away from the fence they are sitting on and cash in their chips. They are waiting to take the plunge into homeownership but are trying to “time the market.” Unfortunately, so many of these buyers and homeowners waiting to refinance have been sitting on the sidelines and have already missed prior opportunities to cash in on excellent interest rates. Fortunately, rates are excellent once again.

Last week was a huge week for interest rates. The last several months have been huge for interest rates. Since November 2018, interest rates have dropped dramatically from 5% to 4.25%, a substantial difference that helps on the homebuyer affordability front. Today’s rate of 4.25% is the lowest since February 2018.

What happened? The United States economy is showing signs of slowing, there has been an international economic slowdown, the price of oil has dropped substantially, the trade war seems as if there is no end in sight, and there has been tremendous stock market volatility. That is enough for investors around the world to park their money in long term U.S. government bonds. When this happens, interest rates fall. And, last week, the Federal Reserve stated that they were done raising the short-term rate and will not make a move on rates at all in 2019.

As a result, interest rates have dropped to new lows not seen in over a year. For buyers looking at a $500,000 mortgage, the drop has resulted in a savings of $224 per month compared to last November. That is an annual savings of $2,688, or $13,440 in 5 years. The savings are even more substantial for higher mortgage amounts.

This is where buyers need to understand that right NOW is an excellent time to cash in on today’s low-interest rate. Waiting for interest rates to drop further is a lot like gambling. Reminiscing about the good ‘ol days when interest rates were in the mid-3% range will not magically make rates drop. Could they go down further? Perhaps. Could they go up again? Absolutely. The old saying, “a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush” applies. It is better to cash in today than to risk losing out on this opportunity by hoping rates fall further. There are plenty of stories of buyers who have kicked themselves for waiting too long.

In taking a closer look at affordability, for buyers looking for a $3,000 mortgage payment, along with a 20% down payment, the drop in interest rates has allowed them to afford a much larger home. Back in November 2018, they were looking at a $698,750 home with a 5% mortgage. That has improved spectacularly since. With today’s 4.25% interest rate, a buyer is now looking at purchasing a $762,500 home. That is an amazing increase of $63,750 in purchasing power.

The combination of improved home affordability and substantially more inventory than the last several spring selling seasons should lead to an increase in home buyer demand. Buyers, what are you waiting for? It is time to get off of the home buying fence and cash in your chips.

Active Inventory: In the past couple of weeks, the active inventory increased by 3%. In the past two weeks, the active listing inventory increased by 166 homes, up 3%, and now totals 6,532, the highest level since November last year. The inventory had been slowly rising, most likely due to the torrential rain that Southern California had experienced. Since much of the heavy rain is over, and now that is officially spring, more homeowners are opting to place their homes on the market. The increases will gain momentum in the coming weeks, the busiest time of the year for housing.

Last year at this time there were 4,609 homes on the market. That means that there are 42% more homes available today. This is the highest level of homes on the market for this time of the year since 2012.

Demand: In the past couple of weeks, demand increased by 3%. Demand, the number of new pending sales over the prior month, continued to rise, increasing by 78 pending sales in the past two weeks, up 3%, and now totals 2,350. The rapid increase in demand from the start of the year is starting to slow and will most likely only increase slightly until peaking sometime in May. From there, demand will slowly diminish through the rest of the Spring and Summer Markets.

The retreat in interest rates this year has helped demand considerably. Soft demand had been an enormous issue in the second half of 2018, but with falling rates demand has picked up.

Even with the strong increase in demand, it is important to note that the current demand reading continues to be the lowest for this time of the year since 2014. There still is buyer apprehension in approaching the housing market. They are careful not to overpay and are looking to offer only the Fair Market Value for a home. They are not willing to stretch the asking price, which is why homes are currently not appreciating much at all.

Last year at this time, there were 188 additional pending sales, 7% more than today.

The current Expected Market Time dropped from 84 days to 83 days in the past two weeks, a slight Seller’s Market. It is still the highest reading for this time of the year since 2011. Last year, the Expected Market Time was at 54 days, a HOT Seller’s Market.

Luxury End: The luxury inventory climbed quite a bit. In the past two-weeks, demand for homes above $1.25 million increased by 6 pending sales, a 2% increase, and now totals 352, its highest level since the end of June 2018. The luxury home inventory increased by 76 homes and now totals 2,090, a 4% increase. The overall expected market time for homes priced above $1.25 million increased from 175 days to 178 over the past two-weeks, a slight increase.

Year over year, luxury demand is down by 1 pending sale, basically the same as last year, and the active luxury listing inventory is up by an additional 293 homes or 16%. There is a lot more seller competition so far this year. The expected market time last year was at 153 days, better than today.

For homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two-weeks, the expected market time increased from 95 to 103 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time increased from 140 to 146 days. For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 245 to 230 days. For homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 650 to 562 days. At 562 days, a seller would be looking at placing their home into escrow around the start of October 2020.

Orange County Housing Market Summary:

• The active listing inventory increased by 166 homes in the past two weeks, up 3%, and now totals 6,532. Last year, there were 4,609 homes on the market, 1,923 fewer than today. There are 42% more homes than last year.
• So far this year, 4% fewer homes came on the market below $500,000 compared to 2018, and there were 15% fewer closed sales. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is continuing to vanish.
• Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased by 78 pending sales in the past two-weeks, up 3%, and now totals 2,350, its lowest level for this time of the year since 2014. Last year, there were 2,538 pending sales, 8% more than today.
• The Expected Market Time for all of Orange County decreased from 84 days two weeks ago to 83 days today, a slight Seller’s Market (between 60 to 90 days) and the highest level for this time of the year since 2011. It was at 54 days last year.
• For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a slight Seller’s Market (between 60 and 90 days) with an expected market time of 64 days. This range represents 42% of the active inventory and 54% of demand.
• For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 66 days, a slight Seller’s Market. This range represents 18% of the active inventory and 22% of demand.
• For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 85 days, a slight Seller’s Market.
• For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two weeks, the expected market time increased from 95 to 103 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time increased from 140 to 146 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 245 to 230 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 650 to 562 days.
• The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 32% of the inventory and only 16% of demand.
• Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.8% of all listings and 1.8% of demand. There are only 19 foreclosures and 30 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 49 total distressed homes on the active market, down two from two-weeks ago. Last year there were 39 total distressed homes on the market, slightly less than today.
• There were 1,543 closed residential resales in February, 15% fewer than February 2018’s 1,820 closed sales. February marked a 6% increase from January 2019. The sales to list price ratio was 97.4% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.3% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.6%. That means that 99.1% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.

Orange County Housing Report: March 11, 2019

The Spring Market: The best conditions to sell a home are right now.

It is that time of the year again. The hills are a dazzling green. Trees are beginning to bud new leaves. Flowers are opening their petals for the first time. Hummingbirds are feeding on the sweet nectar from birds-of-paradise. The season is changing and so is the housing market.

Housing has been accelerating all year and is officially moving at full speed. It took a while to ramp up, starting the year with an Expected Market Time of 140 days, a slight Buyer’s Market. [The Expected Market Time is the amount of time it would take for a home that comes on the market today to open up escrow down the road]. The market has improved dramatically since, on the backs of dropping interest rates. Back in November, rates nearly reached 5%. They dropped to 4.5% by the start of 2019. They recovered even more, dipping to 4.35% by the end of February. As a result, more buyers entered the fray and demand increased by 91% since January 1st. Last year, it improved by 61%.

As the New Year unfolded, the market sped up. By February, it transitioned to a Balanced Market, one that does not favor buyers or sellers. It continued to develop, and the Expected Market Time just dipped to 84 days, a slight Seller’s Market.

Before sellers jump up and down celebrating a return to the housing run, this is not a market with rapid appreciation and multiple offers on every home regardless of the condition. This is not a market where sellers get away with stretching the asking price, where eager buyers are willing to pay a lot more than the most recent comparable sale. The Spring Markets of 2012 through 2018 were all HOT Seller’s Market. The Expected Market Time dropped down to as low as 33 days. That is significantly different than today’s 84 days.

From here, the Expected Market Time will flatten and not change as much as the first couple of months. Do not anticipate a lot more improvement unless interest rates miraculously drop further. The odds of that happening are currently slim to none. Today’s lower interest rates are a gift to prospective buyers. For buyers who are looking at obtaining a $750,000 mortgage, their payment has dropped from a height of $4,026 last November to $3,734 today, a drop of $292 per month, or $3,504 per year. Huntington Beach homes priced between $950,000 and $750,000.

Today’s housing market is exceptionally interest rate sensitive. Lower rates produce much higher demand, which is where the market is today. Higher rates slow demand. Buyers are enjoying much more favorable rates right now because of a perceived global slowdown, the trade war, uncertainty, and Wall Street volatility. But, that can change on a dime. If the trade war were to end, the stock market could get an enormous boost and interest rates would rise.

Advice to Sellers: approach pricing your home with extreme caution. Overpriced homes will sit without success. Currently, there are plenty of homes in every price range that have been sitting for quite some time already. It all boils down to pricing carefully based upon comparable pending and recent closed sales, condition, upgrades, and location. Buyers today want a home to be turnkey and ready to go. Homes with deferred maintenance, or a lack of upgrades, or a poor location, must be priced accordingly. The SLIGHT Seller’s Market means that sellers are able to call more of the shots during negotiations; yet, prices are not appreciating much at all right now.

Active Inventory: In the past couple of weeks, the active inventory increased by 1%. In the past two weeks, the active listing inventory increased by 72 homes, up 1%, and now totals 6,366. It is not rising that rapidly because demand has increased tremendously this year while the number of homeowners opting to sell is a bit subdued. So far this year, 4% fewer homeowners have opted to sell compared to 2018. The wet weather may have something to do with this recent trend. Only time will tell.

From here, expect the inventory to slowly rise until it starts picking up momentum at the end of this month. It will then increase at a higher rate with a lot more homeowners deciding to sell as housing rolls deeper into the Spring Market.

Last year at this time there were 4,420 homes on the market. That means that there are 44% more homes available today. This is the highest level of homes on the market for this time of the year since 2012.

Demand: In the past couple of weeks, demand increased by 9%. Demand, the number of new pending sales over the prior month, continued its rapid rise, increasing by 184 pending sales in the past two weeks, and now totals 2,272. The retreat in interest rates this year has helped demand considerably. Expect demand to continue to slowly rise before peaking sometime in May. From there, demand will slowly diminish through the rest of the Spring and Summer Markets.

Even with the strong increase in demand, it is important to note that the current demand reading continues to be the lowest for this time of the year since 2008. Expect persistent muted demand compared to recent years.

Last year at this time, there were 145 additional pending sales, 6% more than today.

The current Expected Market Time dropped from 90 days to 84 days in the past two weeks, a slight Seller’s Market. It is still the highest reading for this time of the year since 2011. Last year, the Expected Market Time was at 55 days, a HOT Seller’s Market.

Luxury End: Luxury demand soared by 22%. In the past two-weeks, demand for homes above $1.25 million increased by 62 pending sales, a 22% increase, and now totals 346, its highest level since the end of June 2018. The luxury home inventory increased by 77 homes and now totals 2,014, a 4% increase. The overall expected market time for homes priced above $1.25 million dropped from 205 days to 175 over the past two-weeks, a considerable improvement.

Year over year, luxury demand is up by 3 pending sales, or 1%, and the active luxury listing inventory is up by an additional 310 homes, or 18%. There is a lot more seller competition so far this year. The expected market time last year was at 149 days, better than today.

For homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two-weeks, the expected market time decreased from 132 to 95 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 173 to 140 days. For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time increased from 234 to 245 days. For homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time increased from 573 to 650 days. At 650 days, a seller would be looking at placing their home into escrow around the middle of December 2020.

Orange County Housing Market Summary:

• The active listing inventory increased by 72 homes in the past two weeks, up 1%, and now totals 6,366. Last year, there were 4,420 homes on the market, 1,946 fewer than today. There are 44% more homes than last year.
• So far this year, 4% fewer homes came on the market below $500,000 compared to 2018, and there were 15% fewer closed sales. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is continuing to vanish.
• Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, continued its rapid rise in the past two-weeks, climbing by 184 pending sales, up 9%, and now totals 2,272, its lowest level for this time of the year since 2008. Last year, there were 2,417 pending sales, 6% more than today.
• The Expected Market Time for all of Orange County decreased from 90 days two weeks ago to 84 days today, a slight Seller’s Market (between 60 to 90 days) and the highest level for this time of the year since 2011. It was at 55 days last year.
• For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a slight Seller’s Market (between 60 and 90 days) with an expected market time of 65 days. This range represents 42% of the active inventory and 54% of demand. For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 63 days, a slight Seller’s Market. This range represents 17% of the active inventory and 23% of demand.
• For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 102 days, a Balanced Market.
• For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two weeks, the expected market time decreased from 132 to 95 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 173 to 140 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time increased from 234 to 245 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time increased from 573 to 650 days.
• The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 32% of the inventory and only 16% of demand.
• Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.8% of all listings and 1.9% of demand. There are only 17 foreclosures and 34 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 51 total distressed homes on the active market, down eight from two-weeks ago. Last year there were 39 total distressed homes on the market, slightly less than today.
• There were 1,543 closed residential resales in February, 15% fewer than February 2018’s 1,820 closed sales. February marked a 6% increase from January 2019. The sales to list price ratio was 97.4% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.3% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.6%. That means that 99.1% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity. 

Orange County Housing Report: February 24, 2019

Lack of Sellers: Fewer homeowners are opting to sell in spite of homes appreciating to record levels.

From 2000 to 2008, there was an average of 1,347 more homes that came on the market every single month compared to the past 10 years. That is an extra 16,158 sellers every year, 39% more. That has been the storyline for a decade, not enough homes are offered for sale. It is not just an Orange County phenomenon. Nor is it isolated to California.

A lack of sellers has been a national issue that has plagued the real estate market and made it very difficult for buyers to isolate a home. The lack of supply and years of red-hot demand, juiced by historically low interest rates, has resulted in homes appreciating to record levels in Orange County, erasing the losses and sting of the Great Recession. This 10-year old trend is now the norm. Homeowners are simply not moving as often as they used to.

Based upon 2018 closed sales, the turnover rate for the Orange County housing stock is once every 21 years, matching the rate of 2016. It is a little bit longer than 2017’s once every 20 years, but slightly better than the 2015’s once every 23 years and 2014’s once every 24 years. Regardless, once every 21 years is a long time to hold onto a home before opting to sell.

In 2018, the markets with the best turnover rates were in South Orange County and along the coast. From the south, Ladera Ranch and Rancho Mission Viejo top the list once again with a turnover rate of once every 11 years. Talega, Laguna Woods, Coto de Caza, San Juan Capistrano and Dove Canyon, all from the south, are all turning over faster than the rest of the county. Newport Coast and Corona del Mar, two of the most expensive zip codes in the county, also made the top eight list. Many of the top eight are newer areas, which tend to turn over more rapidly.

The lowest turnover rates can be found in more established, older cities in North Orange County: Garden Grove, Buena Park, Santa Ana, Fountain Valley, Cypress, La Palma, and Westminster round out the bottom seven with the lowest turnover rates. The lowest rate in Orange County can be found in Westminster where homeowners are moving at a pace of once every 28 years.

There are numerous reasons that homeowners in Orange County and across the nation are opting to stay put. After feeling the burn from the Great Recession, many are turning their homes into “Forever Homes.” A majority of homeowners have refinanced to historically low interest rates, some as low as the mid-threes, making moving a lot more challenging as rates rise. Most baby boomers plan on staying put instead of downsizing after retirement. They are not moving as many had originally forecasted. They have been selling at a much slower pace than prior generations. This could be due to a longer life expectancy and a healthier lifestyle. They are happy just aging in place. And, builders have not been building homes, especially in the lower ranges, as they did in prior decades. All of these factors combined have contributed to the low turnover rate in the housing stock.

Currently, the active inventory is at its highest level since 2012. That is not because suddenly homeowners are finally deciding to sell at a faster pace. In fact, the number of homeowners coming on the market is slightly less so far this year. Instead, the higher inventory is due to muted demand, a result of interest rates in the mid-4’s.

Buyers must understand that the low turnover rate in the housing stock is here to stay. In some areas, homes are coming on the market at a snail’s pace. Here is a great tip for buyers: realistically approach the market with market data, patience, persistence, and a solid game plan, utilizing the expertise of a professional REALTOR®.

Active Inventory: In the past couple of weeks, the active inventory increased by 3%. In the past two weeks, the active listing inventory increased by 194 homes, up 3%, and now totals 6,294. It is not rising that rapidly because demand has increased tremendously in recent weeks while the number of homeowners opting to sell is a bit subdued. So far this year, 5% fewer homeowners have opted to sell compared to 2018. That could be due to all of the wet weather. Only time will tell.

From here, expect the inventory to slowly rise until it starts picking up momentum at the end of March. It will then increase at a higher rate with many more homeowners deciding to sell as the market rolls through the spring.

Last year at this time there were 4,178 homes on the market. That means that there are 51% more homes available today. This is the highest level of homes on the market for this time of the year since 2012.

Demand: In the past couple of weeks, demand increased by 17%. Demand, the number of new pending sales over the prior month, continued its rapid climb. In the past couple of weeks, demand increased by 297 pending sales, or 17%, from 1,791 to 2,088. Demand typically ramps up through the month of February as it prepares for the best time of the year, in terms of pending sales activity, springtime. So far this year, demand has increased by 79%, even stronger than last year’s 69% rise. Part of demands resurgence is due to interest rates falling from 4.5% at the start of the year to 4.35% last week. Back in November, rates almost reached 5%. The retreat has helped demand considerably.

Even with the strong increase in demand, it is important to note that the current demand reading is the lowest for this time of the year since 2008. It will continue to be muted compared to recent years unless interest rates drop to 4% or below.

Last year at this time, there were 353 additional pending sales, 17% more than today.

The current Expected Market Time dropped from 102 days to 90 days in the past two weeks, a Balanced Market (between 90 and 120 days) and is knocking on the door of a slight Seller’s Market. It is still the highest reading for this time of the year since 2011. Last year, the Expected Market Time was at 51 days, a HOT Seller’s Market.

Luxury End: Luxury demand increased by 14%. In the past two weeks, demand for homes above $1.25 million increased by 35 pending sales, a 14% increase, and now totals 284, its highest level since the end of September 2018. The luxury home inventory increased by 75 homes and now totals 1,937, a 4% increase. The overall expected market time for homes priced above $1.25 million dropped from 224 days to 205 over the past two weeks, a significant improvement.

Year over year, luxury demand is down by 70 pending sales or 20%, and the active luxury listing inventory is up by an additional 308 homes or 19%. The expected market time last year was at 138 days, considerably better than today.

For homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million. In the past two weeks, the expected market time decreased from 144 to 132 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 209 to 173 days. For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 241 to 234 days. For homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 582 to 573 days. At 573 days, a seller would be looking at placing their home into escrow around the middle of September 2020.

Orange County Housing Market Summary:

• The active listing inventory increased by 194 homes in the past two weeks, up 3%, and now totals 6,294. Last year, there were 4,178 homes on the market, 2,116 fewer than today. There are 51% more homes than last year.
• In January, 2% fewer homes came on the market below $500,000 compared to 2018, and there were 19% fewer closed sales. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is continuing to vanish.
• Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, continued its rapid rise in the past two weeks, climbing by 297 pending sales, up 17%, and now totals 2,088, its lowest level for this time of the year since 2008. Last year, there were 2,441 pending sales, 17% more than today.
• The Expected Market Time for all of Orange County decreased from 102 days two weeks ago to 90 days today, a Balanced Market (between 90 to 120 days) and the highest level for this time of the year since 2011. It was at 51 days last year.
• For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a slight Seller’s Market (between 60 and 90 days) with an expected market time of 72 days. This range represents 44% of the active inventory and 55% of demand.
• For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 67 days, a slight Seller’s Market. This range represents 17% of the active inventory and 24% of demand.
• For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 96 days, a Balanced Market. For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two weeks, the expected market time decreased from 144 to 132 days.
• For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 209 to 173 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 241 to 234 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 582 to 573 days.
• The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 31% of the inventory and only 14% of demand.
• Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.9% of all listings and 1.3% of demand. There are only 21 foreclosures and 37 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 58 total distressed homes on the active market, down one from two-weeks ago. Last year there were 40 total distressed homes on the market, slightly less than today.
• There were 1,461 closed residential resales in January, 19% fewer than January 2018’s 1,800 closed sales. January marked an 18% drop from December 2018. The sales to list price ratio was 96.7% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.8% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.6%. That means that 98.6% of all sales were good ole fashioned sellers with equity.

Orange County Housing Report - February 10, 2019

After three months of a slight Buyer’s Market, Orange County housing has moved back to a Balanced Market.

Back to Balance: With rising demand, the housing market transitioned to a Balanced Market.

Let’s paint a picture. It is the end of the school year and time for thousands to graduate from college and embark on the next chapter in their lives. Arenas and stadiums across the country will bestow degrees to young adults eager to make their mark on the world. Their heads are filled with the highest expectations: instant job offers, the job of their choice, and an attractive salary. Then, reality sets in. They move back in with their parents. Their résumé is distributed to a myriad of companies, but there is no instant offer. Finally, after months of looking, they stumble upon an entry level position that pays very little. It all boils down to unrealistic expectations.

Similarly, sellers in 2019 are experiencing the plight of unrealistic expectations. Many are coming on the market expecting a hot Seller’s Market in the spring like 2012 through 2018: instant offers, instant success, full price offers, and buyers tripping over themselves to purchase their home. That is just not the Spring Market in 2019. Like college graduates, it all boils down to unrealistic expectations.

The Spring Market is officially here. Now that the New England Patriots have clinched yet another Super Bowl victory, the housing market moves to THE very best time of the year to sell a home, from now through the end of April. That is three months of perfect market conditions, rising demand and not as much seller competition. The Expected Market Time (the amount of time it will take to list a home today and place it into escrow down the road) drops to its lowest level of the year and remains there through April.

Buyer demand peaks in May and slowly drops from there. At the same time, the active inventory rises as more homeowners opt to come on the market from May through July. With falling demand and a rising inventory, the Expected Market Time rises. It continues to rise until it peaks, customarily between July and August. Last year, it did not peak until ringing in a New Year because demand dropped considerably while the active inventory continued growing until the end of October.

For the next three months it is the best time to sell a home. In the past couple of weeks, demand jumped by 25%, normal for this time of the year, while the active inventory remained nearly the same. As a result, the Expected Market Time dropped from 128 days, a slight Buyer’s Market, to 102 days, a Balanced Market. It is a market that does not favor buyers or sellers. It was a Balanced Market last year from September through the start of November. It shifted to a slight Buyer’s Market the week of Thanksgiving, but just shifted back to balance within the last two weeks with stronger demand. Since January 1st, demand has increased by 51% and the active inventory has only increased by 10%; thus, the huge drop in the Expected Market Time.

Right now, the Orange County housing market is a Balanced Market, noticeably different than past seven years when it leaned heavily in favor of sellers. That is when sellers called the shots and prices climbed. Many sellers are eagerly coming on the market now anticipating a hot Seller’s Market once again; instead, they are encountering today’s Balanced Market. Homes are sitting on the market longer. There are markedly fewer showings. Success is determined by the sellers who accurately price their homes and pack their patience. The market no longer provided instantaneous success with multiple offers. Only homes that are nicely upgraded, show like a model, and are priced well fly off the market. They are the exception, not the rule.

The market is not going to get much better than where it is today, balanced. It will most likely remain balanced throughout the Spring Market. In May, as the Expected Market Time starts to rise, slowly, but surely, Orange County housing will become more sluggish and tilt more in the buyer’s favor.

Active Inventory: In the past couple of weeks, the active inventory decreased by 22 homes. In the past two weeks, the active inventory decreased by 22 homes, almost no change, and now totals 6,100. The lack of a rise is partially due to increased demand, with more homes going into escrow; but, it is also due to the fact that 5% fewer homes have come on the market so far this year. Nonetheless, expect the inventory to rise through the Spring and Summer markets as more sellers enter the fray.

Last year at this time there were 3,981 homes on the market. That means that there are 53% more homes available today. This is the highest level of homes on the market in February since 2012.

Demand: In the past couple of weeks, demand increased by 25%. Demand, the number of new pending sales over the prior month, continued to soar. In the past couple of weeks, demand increased by 356 pending sales, or 25%, from 1,435 to 1,791. This is typical for this time of the year. For perspective, demand increased by 30% last year, adding an additional 522 pending sales. Demand will continue to rise until peaking sometime in May.

Even with the increase in demand, it is the lowest reading for this time of the year since 2008. It will continue to be muted compared to recent years.

Last year at this time, there were 495 additional pending sales, 28% more than today. The current Expected Market Time dropped from 128 days to 102 days in the past two weeks, a Balanced Market (between 90 and 120 days). Last year, the Expected Market Time was at 52 days, a HOT Seller’s Market.

Luxury End: Luxury demand jumped by 33%. In the past two weeks, demand for homes above $1.25 million increased by 62 pending sales, a 33% increase, and now totals 249. The luxury home inventory decreased by 8 homes and now totals 1,862, almost unchanged. The overall expected market time for homes priced above $1.25 million dropped from 300 days to 224 over the past two weeks, a significant improvement.

Year over year, luxury demand is down by 56 pending sales, or 25%, and the active luxury listing inventory is up by an additional 229 homes, or 19%. The expected market time last year was at 167 days, noticeably better than today.

For homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two weeks, the expected market time decreased from 185 to 144 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 305 to 209 days. For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 314 to 241 days. For homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 794 to 582 days. At 582 days, a seller would be looking at placing their home into escrow around the middle of September 2020.

Orange County Housing Market Summary:

• The active listing inventory decreased by 22 homes in the past two weeks and now totals 6,100, almost unchanged. Last year, there were 3,981 homes on the market, 2,119 fewer than today.
• There are 53% more homes than last year. In January, 2% fewer homes came on the market below $500,000 compared to 2018, and there were 19% fewer closed sales. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is continuing to vanish.
• Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, soared in the past two-weeks by 356 pending sales, up 25%, and now totals 1,791, its lowest level for this time of the year since 2008. Last year, there were 2,286 pending sales, 28% more than today.
• The Expected Market Time for all of Orange County decreased from 128 days two weeks ago to 102 days today, a Balanced Market (between 90 to 120 days) and the highest level for this time of the year since 2011. It was at 52 days last year.
• For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a slight Seller’s Market (between 60 and 90 days) with an expected market time of 80 days. This range represents 44% of the active inventory and 56% of demand.
• For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 79 days, a slight Seller’s Market. This range represents 17% of the active inventory and 23% of demand.
• For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 112 days, a Balanced Market.
• For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two weeks, the expected market time decreased from 185 to 144 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 305 to 209 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 314 to 241 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 794 to 582 days.
• The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 31% of the inventory and only 14% of demand.
• Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 1% of all listings and 1.6% of demand. There are only 18 foreclosures and 41 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 59 total distressed homes on the active market, up 3 from two-weeks ago. Last year there were 39 total distressed homes on the market, slightly less than today.
• There were 1,461 closed residential resales in January, 19% fewer than January 2018’s 1,800 closed sales. January marked an 18% drop from December 2018. The sales to list price ratio was 96.7% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.8% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.6%. That means that 98.6% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.

Orange County Housing Report January 27, 2019

After an extremely cool December, housing is starting to warm up a bit.

Housing Thaw: With rising demand, the housing market is starting to move its way towards a Balanced Market.

The housing market in 2019 started off a lot colder than everybody had been accustom to. It was the coldest start since 2011 with an Expected Market Time of 152 days, Buyer’s Market territory (the Expected Market Time is the amount of time it would take to place a home on the market today and enter escrow down the road). But, in the past couple of weeks, the market began its annual thaw.

The active inventory rose by 4% and demand jumped by 23%, as a result, the Expected Market Time dropped from 152 days to 128. At 128 days, it is still a slight Buyer’s Market, just not as frigid as a couple of weeks ago. Last year, during the same time period, the inventory increased by 2% and demand increased by 22%, which resulted in the Expected Market Time dropping from 77 days to 64, a Seller’s Market.

This year’s market is completely different than the past seven years. From 2012 through 2018, housing moved to a Seller’s Market by the end of January. In most cases, it quickly moved to a HOT Seller’s Market with Expected Market Times below 60-days. That will not be the case for 2019. Instead, the market is moving towards a Balanced Market, one that does not favor buyers or sellers.

The best time to sell a home, with the lowest Expected Market Time readings for the year, occurs from the Super Bowl through mid-May. This year will be no exception; it just will not be as robust as the past seven years. Many homeowners and sellers are holding their collective breath with high expectations for the Spring Market. Remember, right now it is still a slight Buyer’s Market. It will drop down to a Balanced Market, NOT a Seller’s Market. It will remain balanced until mid-May. That is when demand will remain relatively the same while more homes come on the market. As a result, the Expected Market Time will rise from mid-May through the Summer Market.

Why will Orange County housing not be hotter in the spring? The answer is a simple Econ 101 principle, supply and demand. The supply of homes, the active listing inventory, is up 62% over last year. Demand, the last 30-days of pending sales, is down 19% from last year. With more sellers competing against each other, coupled with muted demand, the market feels a bit more sluggish than what everybody has been accustom to.

The bottom line: expect housing to be different this year, plan and adjust accordingly.

Active Inventory: In the past couple of weeks, the active inventory increased by 4%.

In the past couple of weeks, the active inventory increased by 211 homes, a 4% rise, and now totals 6,122. Last year, the inventory did not eclipse the 6,000-home mark until mid-June. From here, expect the inventory to continue to rise until peaking sometime over the summer. More and more homeowners opt to place their homes on the market from now through both the Spring and Summer Markets. The greatest number of homes come on in May.

Last year at this time there were 3,774 homes on the market. That means that there are 62% more homes available today. This is the highest level of homes on the market in January since 2012.

Demand: In the past couple of weeks, demand increased by 23%.

Demand, the number of new pending sales over the prior month, soared in the past couple of weeks, rising from 1,190 to 1,435, an increase of 270 pending sales, or 23%. This is typically when the housing market revs its massive engine and rapidly climbs through mid-February. It will continue to rise until peaking sometime in May.

Even with the increase in demand, it is the lowest reading for this time of the year since 2008. It will continue to be muted compared to recent years and the demand readings will be comparable to 2007 levels throughout the year.

Last year at this time, there were 329 additional pending sales, 23% more.

The current Expected Market Time dropped from 152 days to 128 days in the past two weeks, a slight Buyer’s Market (between 120 and 150 days). As the market continues to awaken, the market will move to a Balanced Market (between 90 and 120 days). Last year, the Expected Market Time was at 64 days, knocking on the door of a HOT Seller’s Market.

Luxury End:  The luxury housing market showed some life and is beginning to thaw.

In the past two-weeks, demand for homes above $1.25 million increased by 40 pending sales, a 27% increase, and now totals 187. The luxury home inventory increased by 44 homes and now totals 1,870, a 2% increase. The overall expected market time for homes priced above $1.25 million dropped from 373 to 300 days over the past two-weeks.

Year over year, luxury demand is down by 45 pending sales, or 27%, and the active luxury listing inventory is up by an additional 314 homes, or 27%. The expected market time last year was at 207 days, significantly better than today.

For homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two-weeks, the expected market time decreased from 252 to 185 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 365 to 305 days. For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 347 to 314 days. For homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 1,279 to 794 days. At 794 days, a seller would be looking at placing their home into escrow around the end of March 2021.

Orange County Housing Market Summary:

• The active listing inventory increased by 211 homes in the past two weeks and now totals 6,122, a 4% rise. Last year, there were 3,774 homes on the market, 2,348 fewer than today. There are 62% more homes than last year.
• In 2018, 11% fewer homes came on the market below $500,000 compared to 2017, and there were 26% fewer closed sales. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is slowly vanishing.
• Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, climbed in the past two-weeks by 270 pending sales, up 21%, and now totals 1,435, its lowest level for this time of the year since 2008. Last year, there were 1,764 pending sales, 23% more than today.
• The Expected Market Time for all of Orange County decreased from 152 days two weeks ago to 128 days today, a slight Buyer’s Market (between 120 to 150 days) and the highest level for this time of the year since 2011. It was at 64 days last year.
• For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a Balanced Market (between 90 and 120 days) with an expected market time of 97 days. This range represents 44% of the active inventory and 58% of demand.
• For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 102 days, a Balanced Market. This range represents 18% of the active inventory and 23% of demand.
• For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 156 days, a Buyer’s Market.
• For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two weeks, the expected market time decreased from 252 to 185 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 365 to 305 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 347 to 314 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 1,279 to 794 days.
• The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 30% of the inventory and only 13% of demand.
• Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.9% of all listings and 2.1% of demand. There are only 17 foreclosures and 39 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 56 total distressed homes on the active market, down 11 from two-weeks ago. Last year there were 47 total distressed homes on the market, slightly less than today.
• There were 1,789 closed residential resales in December, 21% fewer than December 2017’s 2,269. December marked a 12% drop over November 2018. The sales to list price ratio was 96.3% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.4% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.7%. That means that 98.9% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.

Orange County Housing Report - January 13, 2019

The start to 2019 is unlike the last 6-years, paving the way for a much different year.

The 2019 Start:

There are a lot more homes, demand is down, and the Expected Market Time is at its highest level since January 2011.

The holiday decorations have been taken down, placed in their appropriate boxes, and carefully tucked away in the attic. Everybody is slowly coming out of the fog after enjoying the festive season full of so many distractions. It is already two weeks into the New Year. This is when the housing market awakens and starts to thaw. Yet, something is different this year.

Orange County housing is starting off on a completely different foot and it is all due to the shift in the market in 2018. The shift was a move away from the theme of “not enough homes on the market” to “not enough demand.” For years, the story was that housing was suffering from a supply problem, but that morphed into a demand problem last year. It is good old fashioned supply and demand from Econ 101. These shifts caused the market to change.

Since 2012, housing has had very little supply and plenty of demand, which favors sellers. But, in 2018, as the supply increased, and demand dropped, the market shifted from a Seller’s Market to a Balanced Market to a slight Buyer’s Market. That is precisely where housing is starting in 2019, a slight Buyer’s Market. Sellers are no longer calling the shots. A slight Buyer’s Market does NOT mean that prices are falling like a rock. Lowball offers are a waste of time and indicate that a buyer is not in touch with reality. Instead, it is a market where buyers no longer have to trip over each other to purchase. They can take their time and call more of the shots in the purchase contract. They are in control.

There were 64% more homes on the market to start in 2019 compared to last year and it was the highest inventory start since 2012. Do not expect a repeat of 2012, though. That year the inventory dropped from week to week until the end of the year and never did rise, not even in the spring. Demand also grew substantially as housing shook crawled out of the Great Recession. On January 1, 2019, there were 5,565 homes on the market, a lot more choices for buyers.

Demand, the last 30-days of pending activity, started the year with 1,190 pending sales, 21% fewer than last year. That was the lowest level to start a year since 2008 when demand was only at 944. With a lot more homes on the market, coupled with muted demand, the Expected Market Time (the amount of time it would take to place a home on the market and open up escrow down the road) was at 140 days on January 1, the highest reading since 2011. The start to 2011 had a very similar feel.

The housing run in Orange County is over. There is a completely different flavor to the market. For years sellers have been in control. For the past few years the Expected Market Time started the year below 90-days, a Seller’s Market; AND, that was in January. This year housing started the year at 142 days and increased to 152 by January 10th. It is a Buyer’s market at the start of the year for the first time in nine years. Keep in mind that some areas in Orange County have different "Markets". For example, the Expected Market Time for Costa Mesa is 85 days and Newport Beach zip code 92662 is 72 days on market.

The Orange County housing market will thaw and improve from here, moving towards a Balanced Market. The best time of the year is around the corner, from February, right after the Super Bowl, through April. There will be no Hot Seller’s Market this year. It will be balanced at best. In May, the Expected Market Time rises and the market slowly cools.

Words of caution for sellers: if you are holding out for the Spring Market in anticipation of a quick sale and a price higher than the last comparable sale, that simply will not happen. Instead, sellers will be looking at a much more sluggish market with muted demand and buyers taking their time to purchase. Properly pricing is absolutely crucial in order to find success. Stretch the price and a seller will sit on the market. One out of every four homes will expire in 2019.

Words of caution for buyers: home values are not dropping much at all right now, so lowball offers are just a waste of everybody’s time including your own. The market is going to improve a bit over the coming weeks and move more towards a Balanced Market during the spring. After isolating a home they like, buyers need to offer the Fair Market Value for a home. A home in great condition that is priced right will not last long even in a slight Buyer’s Market. The old saying “you snooze, you lose” applies.

Active Inventory: In the past couple of weeks, the active inventory increased slightly. In the past couple of weeks, the active inventory increased by 82 homes, a 1% rise, and now totals 5,911. It’s the first increase since mid-October. From January 1st to today, the active listing inventory has risen from 5,565 to 5,911 homes, an increase of 346 homes, or 6%. From here, expect the inventory to continue to rise until peaking sometime over the summer. This is the time of the year where more and more homeowners opt to place their homes on the market now that the holidays are in the past. Some had taken their homes off the market to skip the slowest time of the year and are ready to give it another shot. And, others are just getting a jump start on the Spring Market, knowing that it is going to take a little more time to sell this year.

Last year at this time there were 3,707 homes on the market. That means that there are 59% more homes available today. There is a lot more supply to start this year, the highest since January 2012.

Demand: In the past couple of weeks, demand dropped quite a bit, as it always does to start a year.

Demand, the number of new pending sales over the prior month, decreased from 1,303 to 1,165, a drop of 138, or 11%. It is the lowest demand ready since the start to January 2008. Expect demand to increase from here and peak sometime in May. It will continue to be muted compared to recent years and the demand reading will be comparable to 2007 levels throughout 2019.

Last year at this time, there were 282 additional pending sales, 24% more.

The current Expected Market Time rose from 134 days to 152 days in the past two weeks. But, that will reverse course as the market wakens from its holiday slumber and moves towards the Spring Market. Last year, the Expected Market Time was at 77 days.

Luxury End: The luxury housing market continued to slow considerably. In the past two weeks demand for homes above $1.25 million decreased by 29 pending sales, a 16% drop, and now totals 147. It dropped to levels not seen in quite some time. The luxury home inventory increased by 30 homes and now totals 1,826, a 2% increase. The overall expected market time for homes priced above $1.25 million increased from 306 to 373 days over the past two weeks.

Year over year, luxury demand is down by 23 pending sales, or 14%, and the active luxury listing inventory is up by an additional 450 homes, or 33%. The expected market time last year was at 243 days, significantly better than today.

For homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two weeks, the expected market time increased from 211 to 252 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time increased from 245 to 365 days. For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time increased from 329 to 347 days. For homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time increased from 941 to 1,279 days. At 1,279 days, a seller would be looking at placing their home into escrow around the middle of July 2022.

Orange County Housing Market Summary:

• The active listing inventory increased by 82 homes in the past two weeks and by 346 homes since January 1. It now totals 6,911. Last year, there were 3,707 homes on the market, 2,204 fewer than today. There are 59% more homes than last year.
• In 2018, 11% fewer homes came on the market below $500,000 compared to 2017, and there were 26% fewer closed sales. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is slowly vanishing.
• Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased in the past two-weeks by 138 pending sales and now totals 1,165, its lowest level since 2008. Last year, there were 1,447 pending sales, 24% more than today.
• The Expected Market Time for all of Orange County increased from 134 days two weeks ago to 152 days today, a Buyer’s Market and the highest level since January 2011. It was at 77 days last year.
• For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a Balanced Market (between 90 and 120 days) with an expected market time of 107 days. This range represents 43% of the active inventory and 61% of demand.
• For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 144 days, a slight Buyer’s Market. This range represents 18% of the active inventory and 19% of demand.
• For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 176 days, a Buyer’s Market. For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two weeks, the expected market time increased from 211 to 252 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time increased from 245 to 365 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time increased from 329 to 347 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time increased from 941 to 1,279 days.
• The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 31% of the inventory and only 13% of demand.
• Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 1.1% of all listings and 2.3% of demand. There are only 24 foreclosures and 43 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 67 total distressed homes on the active market, up two from two-weeks ago. Last year there were 50 total distressed homes on the market, slightly less than today.
• There were 1,789 closed residential resales in December, 21% fewer than December 2017’s 2,269. December marked a 12% drop over November 2018. The sales to list price ratio was 96.3% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.4% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.7%. That means that 98.9% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.