The stats for August are in:
The pandemic’s economic pain has battered renters far more than it has homeowners as some fresh data from the U.S. Census Bureau reminds us.
In Riverside and San Bernardino counties, 336,000 adults live in households that are behind on rent due in the week ended Aug. 31, according to the bureau.
That’s 30% of all Inland Empire tenants and almost twice the rate in Los Angeles and Orange counties where 537,000 who live in rentals were late payers — 17% of all tenants.
The Inland Empire payment challenges also look high compared with 15% of skipped rent checks statewide and across the U.S. in late August.
Lower-income workers, who tend to be tenants, have been hit harder by pandemic business restrictions, which have hammered many service industries such as dining, entertainment and tourism.
With various stimulus efforts gone or reduced, rent payments have become tougher to meet.
This also puts landlords in tough positions with various moratoriums on evictions further strapping their abilities to get paid.
Just ponder what a poll from the Public Policy Institute of California tells us about renters’ economic plight.
When asked to evaluate their financial feelings — 66% of renters statewide said “fair” or “poor” vs. just 40% for homeowners.
And not only are past-due rent payments piling up, the prospects of making the next rent check aren’t great in the Inland Empire.
Census found 261,000 renters had “no confidence” they can pay (or will defer paying) the landlord this month — 22% of tenants.
In L.A.-O.C., 412,000 renters are unlikely to pay — or 12% of tenants. Nationally, this expected non-payment rate is 11%; statewide it’s 10%.
Pandemic-linked financial woes in SoCal are plentiful and not just a renter issue.
Note that July’s 16.8% unemployment rate in L.A.-O.C. was the highest among the 51 largest metro areas nationwide the Inland Empire at 13.4% was 9th worst.
But compare skipped rent payments to far fewer missed mortgage bills for homeowners.
Census found 423,000 living in homes they own in L.A.-O.C. were behind on their mortgage — 14% of homes with financing.
And 11% of these owners had no confidence or would defer their next mortgage payment.
In the Inland Empire, 164,067 are in households that were late on the mortgage — 11% of owners with financing.
Just 6% have no confidence or will defer the next house payment.
Owners are later payers outside the region, too.
Statewide, 10% are behind on the mortgage and 8% have doubts about the next payment.
Nationally, 10% are behind and 6% think they miss or defer the upcoming mortgage due.
“Think about the industry sectors that dominate a region like Los Angeles – entertainment, leisure and hospitality, healthcare, retail – these are some of the hardest hit by the pandemic’s health-mandated closures and offer little possibility to work remotely; as such, they simply can’t show the same resilience seen, for example, in professional, scientific, and technical services.”
I'm normally an optimist but I keep waiting for the market to crash...On a national level, home prices are up 7.5% since this time last year. The buying/selling season has been extended this year due to Covid. People are trying to optimize their lives for the new normal. They are looking for home office space and just more space. As we spend more time in our homes the need for privacy to conduct virtual meetings and to attend virtual classrooms has increased.
Orange County continues to see home prices on the rise. Demand continues to grow fueled by low-interest rates and the available homes for sale are among the lowest levels in years. We currently have 4,449 homes for sale compared to 7,488 at this time last year.
Taking advantage of the low-interest rates makes sense. Overall the answer to this question is different for everyone. I would ask a few simple questions.
If we do have another "crash" you will need to be prepared to buckle down and ride it out for the best outcome.
The Coronavirus pandemic has certainly left a mark on the planet. One positive outcome is the planet seems to be in a state of healing. Less travel has decreased air pollution levels and reduced the seismic vibrations on earth.
May offered 2,940 new listings bringing the total to 6,520. The increase in new listings is up from April by nearly 1000. This is important because we had a lack of inventory and a resurgence in buyer demand. The days on market in May moved to 74 days down from 121 days in April. It is now a sellers market.
A factor fueling the real estate market has to be the low interest rates. We closed a transaction in May with a jumbo loan. Our client locked the rate at 2.99% for a 30 year fixed. We were all shocked.
Below is a Core-Logic recap of our current Orange County Real Estate Marketplace for the month of February 2020. Source; OC Register, 4/19/2020.
Orange County Real Estate Activity for the week of April 14th-20th:
Thru March 2020:
First of all, we hope everyone is staying safe and healthy. These are trying times. We are focusing on the health and well being of our loved ones which includes mental health. At time of so much uncertainty, it can be difficult to cope with stress.
Housing demand and supply have been on a complete opposite curve as the Coronavirus curve. An extreme downward trend. We all want both curves to be inverted.
Below is a Core-Logic recap of our current Orange County Real Estate Marketplace for the month of January 2020. Source; OC Register, 3/8/2020.
Home sales jumped, the latest indication of a warming housing market.
In L.A. County, the median price rose 4.2% to $620,000, sales climbed 5.6%.
In Orange County, the median rose 0.7% to $725,000, while sales climbed 6%.
In Riverside County, the median rose 3.9% to $395,000, sales climbed 11.4%.
In San Bernardino County, the median rose 5.2%, while sales climbed 8.1%.
In San Diego County, the median rose 2.6%, while sales climbed 10%.
In Ventura County, the median fell 3% to $580,000, while sales climbed 17%.
Home price gains are still muted compared with the beginning of 2018, which saw gains in the high single digits.
Bidding wars that drove buyers away were sitting on the sidelines as buyers aren’t willing to go extravagantly high on pricing anymore.
Chris Thornberg, founding partner with Beacon Economics, said the market should pick up further next year. “The economy is likely to keep growing, and California is likely to keep failing to build enough homes”.
In the third quarter, 31% of California households could reasonably afford to purchase the median-priced single-family house, according to the C.A.R.
That figure was 27% a year ago.
For those priced out, costs are high. Many renters who can’t afford to purchase a home are stuck paying unaffordable rent, putting them at risk of being forced from their communities & in the worst cases, onto the street.
Beyond a crushing human toll, there’s an economic cost as well.
An analysis released this week from the McKinsey Global Institute estimated the high cost of housing in L.A. County crowds out other spending and forces people into long commutes, reducing GDP by about 4% to 5%, or more than $30 billion annually.
OCRegister.com SoCal home sales rose 10.4% for the year ended in September 2019, the largest year-over year jump in nearly 3 years.For the month, 19,253 residences, newly built and existing homes, sold in the six-county region vs. 17,440 a year earlier, according to CoreLogic data The 10.4% rise was the largest jump since November 2016. Sales rose in all six counties for the first time in 29 months The rush to buy pushed up some prices. The 6 county median was $533,000 vs. $520,000 a 2.5% increase — but increases were in just 3 counties. Homebuying slowed in the past 2 years as higher loan rates, rising prices plus economic & political uncertainty scared off some house hunters. Sales had fallen, year- year, in 20 of the previous 26 months.
But in 2019 dramatic drop in mortgage rates to below 4% — a tumble that was as much as a record breaking 1.33% drop motivated buyers to act.
Here’s how the selling broke down in key Southern California niches.
Existing single-family homes: 13,365 sold — up 11.8% in a year. Median price: $560,000 — up 3.2% in a year.
Existing condos: 4,236 sold — up 13.6% in a year. Median price: $450,000 — flat in a year.
New homes: 1,652 sold, down 3.2% in a year.
Median price: $552,000 — down 3.6% in a year. Builders’ share of all sales was 8.6% vs. 10.1% a year ago.
And buyers have fewer choices with 42,577 listings, down 9% in a year.
County-by-County Homebuying (Sept 2018-2019)
Los Angeles: Sales rose 7.3%; its median of $618,000 was up 3.9% in a year.
Orange: Sales rose 13.1%; its median of $723,000 was down 2.3% in a year.
STAT of THE DAY
Did you Know?
Real Estate Trends
Below is a Core-Logic recap of our current Orange County Real Estate Marketplace for the 22 business days ending August 8th, 2019. Source; OC Register, 9/8/2019.
Resale Homes +0.7%, Resale Condos -2.7% and New Home Sales -12.8% All totaled, OC home values are up -3.2% versus last year Median OC home price is $715,000 up versus one year ago (-$25k from peak) $1,000,000 plus homes represent 43.1% of all OC listings
Resale Homes +1.1%, Resale Condos +1.9% and New Home Sales -32.9% All totaled, OC sales volume is up -2.3% versus last year Home sales volume is 3,134 up versus one year ago Inventory is at 7,307 down from one month ago OC Average days on market; 87 days
30-year fixed Mortgage rate is 3.49%, down versus last week 15-year fixed rate is 3.00%, down versus one week ago Average Home Payment is $3,481.03 down versus one year ago ARM’s represent 13.9% of all mortgages
STAT of THE DAY This year’s sharply falling mortgage rates boosted the number of SoCal households that theoretically could qualify to buy an entry level home to 257,000! That’s a lot of new potential buyers.
Did you Know? There are 14,000,000+ residences in California US home ownership is at 64.4% (up versus last year) California home ownership is 55.2% (up versus last year) OC/LA home ownership is 47.3% (down from last year) California led the nation in 2017 with lowest vacancy rate at 8.3% There were 402,705 SFR homes sales in CA in 2018 There were 35,020 homes sold in Orange County in 2018 There were 37,881 homes sold in Orange County in 2017 It takes a $169,850 a year income to buy an OC median priced home? 614 homes sell every hour in the United States!
Facts Southern California median home price is $540,000 (sales up 3.7%) OC median home price is $715,000 (sales down 2.3%) LA median home price is $635,000 (sales flat 0%) Ventura median home price is $595,000 (sales up 6.2%) San Diego median home price is $580,000 (sales up 10.1%) Riverside median home price is $395,000 (sales up 8.6%) San Bernardino median home price is $340,000 (sales up 3.3%)
Trends Foreign investor purchases down 41% in CA versus last year 110k new homes in the US this year (down 65% from 1986) CA bankruptcies rise for the first time in 8 years (+2% VLY) Listings are at a 5-year high The last time there were these many homes on the market was 2014 Orange County has 19% more inventory than this time last year Escrows are down 2% and days on the market are up 18% Only 1.19% of all OC properties currently listed as distressed
Forecast CAR forecasts a -6.9% decline in sales for 2019 Core-Logic forecasts US home prices will increase 4.8% in 2019 CAR Forecasts California home prices will rise 3.1% in 2019 Cal State Fullerton forecasts a 4-5% prices in increase in SoCal in 2019 Chapman University forecasts a 2.9% price increase for OC in 2019
STAT of THE DAY
This year’s sharply falling mortgage rates boosted the number of SoCal households that theoretically could qualify to buy an entry level home to 257,000! That’s a lot of new potential buyers…
Did you Know?
July ended with a large number of active listings for Orange County and a slight increase in closed sales.
Total active listings: 9,260
New Listings in July: 3,664
Total closed sales: 2,865
Not much has changed from last month when looking at the numbers. The days on market has slightly increased. The data from the Infosparks and the CRMLS shows an average of 44 days on market.
Total Active listings: 9,467 we had an increase in inventory from May
Closed Sales: 2,693 which is slightly down from May closings
Supply continues to be on the upswing while closings are slightly down. With the increase in active listings, it becomes more important to price your home correctly. The strategy of "testing the market" on the MLS is costing time and money. It costs more time on the market which statistically reduces the final sale price.
It will be very important to look at all the available data to price your home. Comparable sales, condition of the property, price per square foot can all factor in the price.
We will do the homework and then put together the right marketing strategy for your home.
Total Active listings: 8,778
Closed Sales: 2,935
Supply is on an upswing since December of 2018 which is the norm every year after the holidays. July of 2014 was our highest peak of inventory and we could surpass that in the next few weeks if demand stays soft.
We are showing a shrinking inventory of housing under $500,000 (currently 1,478). Housing units priced under $500,000 will have a tendency to sell quickly but the housing units at this price point are fading away.
Conversely we have 3,831 units for sale over $1,000,000 in Orange County.
Based on information from California Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc. as of . This information is for your personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties you may be interested in purchasing. Display of MLS data is usually deemed reliable but is NOT guaranteed accurate by the MLS. Buyers are responsible for verifying the accuracy of all information and should investigate the data themselves or retain appropriate professionals. Information from sources other than the Listing Agent may have been included in the MLS data. Unless otherwise specified in writing, Broker/Agent has not and will not verify any information obtained from other sources. The Broker/Agent providing the information contained herein may or may not have been the Listing and/or Selling Agent.