Southern California homebuyers took their feet off the gas pedal last month, causing the region's white-hot housing market to level off after six months of record-setting price gains.
The median price of a SoCal home, or the price at the mid-point of all sales, was $680,000 in August, down $1,000 from July, DQ News/CoreLogic reported Sept 21st.
There also were 541 fewer homes sold last month vs. July, a decrease of 2.2%. Market Slow Down The supply of homes for sale also has ticked up steadily over the past few months, giving buyers more selection and less incentive to bid higher for desired homes. DQ News/Core-Logic figures show that the six-county median was up $83,000 — or 13.9% — from August 2020, DQ News/Core-Logic figures show. That's an average gain of almost $1,600 every week for the past year.
Sales edged up, too, rising 8.1% from August 2020 levels. That's a comparatively small gain after a year of increases ranging from 17% to 96%.
At 24,565 sales, last month's total also was the smallest for an August since 2006. More sellers are reducing their asking prices, Zillow reported. Homes selling below asking prices increased 10.7% in Los Angeles and Orange counties and 10.3% in Riverside and San Bernardino counties. "There is probably some buyer fatigue in the market evident by lower sales-to list (price) ratios and fewer offers for homes on the market," said Selma Hepp, CoreLogic's deputy chief economist.
The traditional summer slowdown and more inventory also contributed to the August cooldown. The number of SoCal homes for sale has been ticking upward steadily since February, rising 18% to 42,756 homes for sale last month, Zillow figures show. "Another month of rising for-sale inventory gives shoppers more options to choose from and less competition," said Nicole Bachaud, economic data analyst at Zillow. That, in turn, "should help reduce bidding wars and further moderate rampant price hikes."
The Data, The median home price (US) is $389,000. Up from $351,000 in 2020. It's the end of the summer now and prices are generally stable from here until November. Prices stayed elevated last fall and winter and the data suggests much of the same this year. We are still seeing immediate sales affecting the inventory numbers. We had 24,000 immediate sales again this week, which shows that while maybe there are fewer people in each bidding war, there are plenty of buyers waiting for any opening at all. We can see immediate sales this week especially strong in places like Phoenix and Miami which may be the first of the snowbirds buying now in preparation for the winter months. Still a very big chunk of the new listings are getting snapped up immediately.
The new listing volume is staying strong but we are not seeing a surge. The reason we are not seeing the surge we were expected is that two million homeowners are still in the forbearance program. And mortgage delinquencies have been declining.
Orange County August 2021 median home price reaches $900,000
August of 2020 the median home price was $794,000. August 2021 had 4,151 total listings which is down 1,800 from last year.
For the week of June 14th - June 20th (Happy Father's Day) the country had 110,000 new listings. Out of those 28,000 were immediately under contract. This is the time of year when inventory increases.
In Orange County over the past week we saw 699 new listings and total of 1,354 listings that were new, price adjusted or back on the market. We are at 49% of the active listings compared to June of 2019. The biggest change is the immediate sales. We (Orange County) have 1,060 properties under contract or pending.
May of 2021 active and pending listings are 4,146. May of 2019 active and pending listings are 7,148. Yes, that is a big difference in total inventory.
One thought, for those of you who are waiting for a crash. It appears that we will have a restrictive inventory for the next few years. The only thing that will improve the inventory is interest rates climbing and that's not a guarantee.
In the United States, Inventory is up for the week! This is also the first week in over a year that prices did NOT climb. In previous years the market peak is near the end of June so we are seeing some similarities in regards to pricing.
There are no signs of distressed mortgages coming to the market. We've heard of a "big wave" of distressed inventory coming to the market but we are not seeing it. Distressed inventory accounts for 1% of the inventory in the United States. 1% is a very normal figure. The question still remains if the government is going to force the banks to work with their forbearance mortgages.
Listing inventory in Orange County still remains at record lows. Our inventory has decreased in the past week down to 2,247 homes for listed for sale. Distressed homes for sale in Orange County account for less than 1% of the total listings.
Despite the "inventory shortage" Orange County had 3,374 residential real estate sales in April of 2021. This data is directly from the MLS and InfoSparks. In April of 2019, pre-pandemic, Orange County had 2,526 residential real estate sales. That doesn't look like an inventory shortage. That looks like a super hot market.
In Huntington Beach, the real estate market has been consistent for the past few months. The numbers that stand out, Price Decreased - 20% of the listings. This is still in the record low area. Since that statistic has been tracked the average listings with price decreases is closer to 35%.
We also have immediate sales which alter the days on market. Immediate sales occur when a buyers' offer is accepted in the first couple of days on the market.
The pandemic has improved a few local businesses. Mountain Mike's Pizza is an Orange County-owned company. They had a 13% increase in sales in 2020 and continue to grow into one of the top restaurant chains in the county.
It was exciting to see an inventory increase in the County last week. It has given some hope to our first-time buyer clients.
An article in the Orange County Register "First-time homebuyers are getting outbid by big companies" by Jeff Lazerson, on April 22nd tried to crush our hope. The article explained how buyers are competing against companies, large and small, who invest in Orange County property. These companies can be mom-and-pop shops, investor groups, publicly traded companies, pension funds and even large foreign behemoths. Orange County Investment Properties
The article discusses statistics in Southern California and the entire country. Orange County stands out because 3.5% of the residential 1-4 unit properties are owned by corporate entities. That is the highest in the region. Orange County also has the highest median home value by nearly $200,000. That is one factor that makes Orange County an attractive investment.
The other interesting article, Landsea Homes has bought land in San Juan Capistrano to build 132 homes. Landsea Group is a China real estate company.
This is a snapshot of Laguna Niguel on April 25th, 2021:
Call or text 949-430-7500 if you have any questions.
The first time in 52 weeks the inventory increased! In the United States, the inventory went up by 1.6%. Not much but a huge milestone after 52 straight weeks of inventory dropping.
In Orange County, the active inventory increased by 6% or 144 homes. The largest increase since May 2020. The largest amount of new listings came in the price range of $750,000 to $1,000,000. 86 new listings or a 25% increase. $500,000-$750,000 had a 13% increase in new listings which equates to 41 homes. I know this doesn't look like much but this factored in with the price decreases equals good news for buyers. The price reductions are a sign of slower demand.
You can see the data for Huntington Beach.
14 days on market! Homes are selling fast.
24% of homes have had a price decrease/reduction. That is good news. Demand has started to slow down as inventory had the first positive upswing in a year.
You can see it's still a strong sellers market. In Orange County the inventory usually peaks in July or August. We may be on track for that to happen.
Call or text 949-430-7500 if you have any questions.
I can create a snapshot market report for your zip code.
As the economy goes the real estate market goes. I've heard a lot of talk of a bubble but Anil Puri, Director California State University, Fullerton, Woods Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting has indicated that the economic outlook for Orange County has climbed to the highest level since 2018. Citing vaccinations on an upswing, elections over with, coronavirus cases lowering and the economy opening up, optimism has clearly returned.
A third of the county's businesses are operating at or above the pre-pandemic level. And the county's largest source of jobs, Disneyland, plans to open at the end of April. The Anaheim real estate market will be effected by the reopening of Disneyland.
Call or text 949-430-7500 if you have any questions.
The first week of April had 665 new properties listed.
We had 1,970 go under contract or closed.
The data looks the same...More houses closed, pending and under contract than new listings.
The one indicator that we will focus on is the price reductions. Price reductions are still at an all-time low, 16%. This number has been steady for a couple of months. Analysts expect the price reductions to increase in April which is an indication that demand has decreased. Hopefully, this will be paired with an increase in supply.
This will be an important time for sellers trying to buy at the same time. Many have been waiting on the sidelines due to the lack of supply. If the analysts are correct, your time is coming. We feel like this is good news for our buyer clients and our clients who are ready to move up or downsize.
Logistics are an important factor when trading houses. No one likes to move and moving twice is a sign of poor logistics. We will negotiate the timing to allow for a single move with ample time. One strategy we have used during the pandemic real estate market is the rent back. Sell your house. Rent it back from the new owner. Identify your new house. Close on your new house. In one weekend, move out of your old house and move into your new house. It sounds easy and can be.
Demand is still outpacing supply.
Our government has proposed a housing policy, a $15,000 first-time buyer tax credit. This policy will increase demand.
Normally, we see inventory decrease through January and then level off in February. This year will mark the first time in 13 years that inventory continued to decrease through February. Normally, we see an increase in inventory starting in March. What's going to happen in March of 2021?
What does this graph/data tell us? This is One week in January!
At this moment we have less than 3000 homes/condos listed for sale in Orange County. That's less than two weeks of inventory.
Buyer frustrations are boiling over. I understand. It's difficult and emotionally draining. These are things you can do to get your offer noticed:
We recently had an offer accepted that wasn't the highest price. We discovered how to net the seller the most money without offering the highest price. In this case, the house had $16,000 worth of termite repairs. Nine offers were submitted that required the seller to repair the termite damage. From the seller's perspective that can be overwhelming, maybe they are forced to move. They just want to get out as quickly and quietly as possible.
Our offer was "as-is". We were going to pay for the termite repairs and any small repairs that may be discovered during our home inspection. We kept the contingency on the offer in case there was major damage. In the case of major damage, we would then negotiate to have that repaired or the price reduced.
You have to be patient.
Shall we pause from the lovely holiday photos to look at some INSANE real estate data?
Only 419,000 single family homes on the market in the entire country right now.
It wasn't that long ago when we'd start the year with more than 1 million.
With a combination of ultra restricted supply and super high demand, home prices climbed 10% this year.
That equals a sellers market. Poorly constructed doghouses are starting to sell. I hope buyers are in a situation where they don't have to panic and make a tough decision. The new listings will rise in January. In the meantime, if you're a buyer, keep looking.
Actually, yes, statistically speaking the real estate market has started to slow down. 3% decrease in active inventory, 7% increase in total demand and 10% decrease in luxury demand.
What does this mean? Continued competition for buyers and a hot seller's market. If you're a buyer the holiday season may present some opportunities while others are sleeping. Keep looking.
11-05-2020...by the largest amount in at least two years, with Inland Empire prices increasing at the fastest pace in the region, the CoreLogic Home Price Index for September shows.
Prices in Riverside and San Bernardino counties jumped 7.7% in September, the largest year-over-year percentage gain since May 2018, according to the index, released Tuesday, Nov. 3.
Economists say buyer demand shifted to non-urban areas like the Inland Empire since the virus forced more residents to work or study from home.
The median home price in San Diego County blew past the previous record to hit an all-time high of $634,000 in July.
That represented a 9.3% price increase over a year earlier, according to CoreLogic data provided by DQNews — the highest annual jump in nearly two years.
Los Angeles County, with the second-biggest gain, showed house prices rising 6.3% from September 2019 levels, the largest percentage increase since September 2018.
Orange County’s gain of 5.09% was the biggest since August 2018. The CoreLogic HPI confirms earlier housing market reports showing soaring home prices since mid-summer amid high demand and record-low mortgage interest rates.
A lack of homes for sale also created high competition among home buyers, with bidding wars pushing purchase prices even higher.
The traditional spring home buying season also shifted to the summer following the shutdown caused by the corona virus last April and May, when sales plummeted.
Nationally, the index value of a resale house increased 6.7% in September. CoreLogic officials called the housing market “a bright spot” in an otherwise struggling economy still burdened by high unemployment rates and a third spike in COVID cases.
“COVID has contributed to the acute shortage of inventory as the pace of new construction slowed and older prospective sellers postponed listing their homes until after the pandemic,” CoreLogic Chief Economist Frank Nothaft said in a statement.
Improved containment of the virus could cause home price gains to slow as more homes are put up for sale, Nothaft said.
“Once the pandemic passes or a vaccine is widely administered, we should see a noticeable pick-up in for-sale homes,” he said. “And if the economy’s recovery is sluggish next year, distressed sales may also add to market inventory.”
10/30/2020 Currently 2,320,000 homeowners are 90 days or more late on their mortgage...a 43,000 improvement from the prior month.
The mortgages that are less than 90 days late also showed improvement.
Foreclosure inventory has also improved. The CARES Act is directly affecting these statistics.
On a national level, the median home price has risen during the pandemic. Surprising? It looks like the luxury market had a large impact on the statistics. Homes priced under $250,000 have increased in value by 4%.
The stats for August are in:
The pandemic’s economic pain has battered renters far more than it has homeowners as some fresh data from the U.S. Census Bureau reminds us.
In Riverside and San Bernardino counties, 336,000 adults live in households that are behind on rent due in the week ended Aug. 31, according to the bureau.
That’s 30% of all Inland Empire tenants and almost twice the rate in Los Angeles and Orange counties where 537,000 who live in rentals were late payers — 17% of all tenants.
The Inland Empire payment challenges also look high compared with 15% of skipped rent checks statewide and across the U.S. in late August.
Lower-income workers, who tend to be tenants, have been hit harder by pandemic business restrictions, which have hammered many service industries such as dining, entertainment and tourism.
With various stimulus efforts gone or reduced, rent payments have become tougher to meet.
This also puts landlords in tough positions with various moratoriums on evictions further strapping their abilities to get paid.
Just ponder what a poll from the Public Policy Institute of California tells us about renters’ economic plight.
When asked to evaluate their financial feelings — 66% of renters statewide said “fair” or “poor” vs. just 40% for homeowners.
And not only are past-due rent payments piling up, the prospects of making the next rent check aren’t great in the Inland Empire.
Census found 261,000 renters had “no confidence” they can pay (or will defer paying) the landlord this month — 22% of tenants.
In L.A.-O.C., 412,000 renters are unlikely to pay — or 12% of tenants. Nationally, this expected non-payment rate is 11%; statewide it’s 10%.
Pandemic-linked financial woes in SoCal are plentiful and not just a renter issue.
Note that July’s 16.8% unemployment rate in L.A.-O.C. was the highest among the 51 largest metro areas nationwide the Inland Empire at 13.4% was 9th worst.
But compare skipped rent payments to far fewer missed mortgage bills for homeowners.
Census found 423,000 living in homes they own in L.A.-O.C. were behind on their mortgage — 14% of homes with financing.
And 11% of these owners had no confidence or would defer their next mortgage payment.
In the Inland Empire, 164,067 are in households that were late on the mortgage — 11% of owners with financing.
Just 6% have no confidence or will defer the next house payment.
Owners are later payers outside the region, too.
Statewide, 10% are behind on the mortgage and 8% have doubts about the next payment.
Nationally, 10% are behind and 6% think they miss or defer the upcoming mortgage due.
“Think about the industry sectors that dominate a region like Los Angeles – entertainment, leisure and hospitality, healthcare, retail – these are some of the hardest hit by the pandemic’s health-mandated closures and offer little possibility to work remotely; as such, they simply can’t show the same resilience seen, for example, in professional, scientific, and technical services.”
I'm normally an optimist but I keep waiting for the market to crash...On a national level, home prices are up 7.5% since this time last year. The buying/selling season has been extended this year due to Covid. People are trying to optimize their lives for the new normal. They are looking for home office space and just more space. As we spend more time in our homes the need for privacy to conduct virtual meetings and to attend virtual classrooms has increased.
Orange County continues to see home prices on the rise. Demand continues to grow fueled by low-interest rates and the available homes for sale are among the lowest levels in years. We currently have 4,449 homes for sale compared to 7,488 at this time last year.
Taking advantage of the low-interest rates makes sense. Overall the answer to this question is different for everyone. I would ask a few simple questions.
If we do have another "crash" you will need to be prepared to buckle down and ride it out for the best outcome.
The Coronavirus pandemic has certainly left a mark on the planet. One positive outcome is the planet seems to be in a state of healing. Less travel has decreased air pollution levels and reduced the seismic vibrations on earth.
May offered 2,940 new listings bringing the total to 6,520. The increase in new listings is up from April by nearly 1000. This is important because we had a lack of inventory and a resurgence in buyer demand. The days on market in May moved to 74 days down from 121 days in April. It is now a sellers market.
A factor fueling the real estate market has to be the low interest rates. We closed a transaction in May with a jumbo loan. Our client locked the rate at 2.99% for a 30 year fixed. We were all shocked.
Below is a Core-Logic recap of our current Orange County Real Estate Marketplace for the month of February 2020. Source; OC Register, 4/19/2020.
Orange County Real Estate Activity for the week of April 14th-20th:
Thru March 2020:
First of all, we hope everyone is staying safe and healthy. These are trying times. We are focusing on the health and well being of our loved ones which includes mental health. At time of so much uncertainty, it can be difficult to cope with stress.
Housing demand and supply have been on a complete opposite curve as the Coronavirus curve. An extreme downward trend. We all want both curves to be inverted.
Below is a Core-Logic recap of our current Orange County Real Estate Marketplace for the month of January 2020. Source; OC Register, 3/8/2020.
Home sales jumped, the latest indication of a warming housing market.
In L.A. County, the median price rose 4.2% to $620,000, sales climbed 5.6%.
In Orange County, the median rose 0.7% to $725,000, while sales climbed 6%.
In Riverside County, the median rose 3.9% to $395,000, sales climbed 11.4%.
In San Bernardino County, the median rose 5.2%, while sales climbed 8.1%.
In San Diego County, the median rose 2.6%, while sales climbed 10%.
In Ventura County, the median fell 3% to $580,000, while sales climbed 17%.
Home price gains are still muted compared with the beginning of 2018, which saw gains in the high single digits.
Bidding wars that drove buyers away were sitting on the sidelines as buyers aren’t willing to go extravagantly high on pricing anymore.
Chris Thornberg, founding partner with Beacon Economics, said the market should pick up further next year. “The economy is likely to keep growing, and California is likely to keep failing to build enough homes”.
In the third quarter, 31% of California households could reasonably afford to purchase the median-priced single-family house, according to the C.A.R.
That figure was 27% a year ago.
For those priced out, costs are high. Many renters who can’t afford to purchase a home are stuck paying unaffordable rent, putting them at risk of being forced from their communities & in the worst cases, onto the street.
Beyond a crushing human toll, there’s an economic cost as well.
An analysis released this week from the McKinsey Global Institute estimated the high cost of housing in L.A. County crowds out other spending and forces people into long commutes, reducing GDP by about 4% to 5%, or more than $30 billion annually.
OCRegister.com SoCal home sales rose 10.4% for the year ended in September 2019, the largest year-over year jump in nearly 3 years.For the month, 19,253 residences, newly built and existing homes, sold in the six-county region vs. 17,440 a year earlier, according to CoreLogic data The 10.4% rise was the largest jump since November 2016. Sales rose in all six counties for the first time in 29 months The rush to buy pushed up some prices. The 6 county median was $533,000 vs. $520,000 a 2.5% increase — but increases were in just 3 counties. Homebuying slowed in the past 2 years as higher loan rates, rising prices plus economic & political uncertainty scared off some house hunters. Sales had fallen, year- year, in 20 of the previous 26 months.
But in 2019 dramatic drop in mortgage rates to below 4% — a tumble that was as much as a record breaking 1.33% drop motivated buyers to act.
Here’s how the selling broke down in key Southern California niches.
Existing single-family homes: 13,365 sold — up 11.8% in a year. Median price: $560,000 — up 3.2% in a year.
Existing condos: 4,236 sold — up 13.6% in a year. Median price: $450,000 — flat in a year.
New homes: 1,652 sold, down 3.2% in a year.
Median price: $552,000 — down 3.6% in a year. Builders’ share of all sales was 8.6% vs. 10.1% a year ago.
And buyers have fewer choices with 42,577 listings, down 9% in a year.
County-by-County Homebuying (Sept 2018-2019)
Los Angeles: Sales rose 7.3%; its median of $618,000 was up 3.9% in a year.
Orange: Sales rose 13.1%; its median of $723,000 was down 2.3% in a year.
STAT of THE DAY
Did you Know?
Real Estate Trends
Below is a Core-Logic recap of our current Orange County Real Estate Marketplace for the 22 business days ending August 8th, 2019. Source; OC Register, 9/8/2019.
Resale Homes +0.7%, Resale Condos -2.7% and New Home Sales -12.8% All totaled, OC home values are up -3.2% versus last year Median OC home price is $715,000 up versus one year ago (-$25k from peak) $1,000,000 plus homes represent 43.1% of all OC listings
Resale Homes +1.1%, Resale Condos +1.9% and New Home Sales -32.9% All totaled, OC sales volume is up -2.3% versus last year Home sales volume is 3,134 up versus one year ago Inventory is at 7,307 down from one month ago OC Average days on market; 87 days
30-year fixed Mortgage rate is 3.49%, down versus last week 15-year fixed rate is 3.00%, down versus one week ago Average Home Payment is $3,481.03 down versus one year ago ARM’s represent 13.9% of all mortgages
STAT of THE DAY This year’s sharply falling mortgage rates boosted the number of SoCal households that theoretically could qualify to buy an entry level home to 257,000! That’s a lot of new potential buyers.
Did you Know? There are 14,000,000+ residences in California US home ownership is at 64.4% (up versus last year) California home ownership is 55.2% (up versus last year) OC/LA home ownership is 47.3% (down from last year) California led the nation in 2017 with lowest vacancy rate at 8.3% There were 402,705 SFR homes sales in CA in 2018 There were 35,020 homes sold in Orange County in 2018 There were 37,881 homes sold in Orange County in 2017 It takes a $169,850 a year income to buy an OC median priced home? 614 homes sell every hour in the United States!
Facts Southern California median home price is $540,000 (sales up 3.7%) OC median home price is $715,000 (sales down 2.3%) LA median home price is $635,000 (sales flat 0%) Ventura median home price is $595,000 (sales up 6.2%) San Diego median home price is $580,000 (sales up 10.1%) Riverside median home price is $395,000 (sales up 8.6%) San Bernardino median home price is $340,000 (sales up 3.3%)
Trends Foreign investor purchases down 41% in CA versus last year 110k new homes in the US this year (down 65% from 1986) CA bankruptcies rise for the first time in 8 years (+2% VLY) Listings are at a 5-year high The last time there were these many homes on the market was 2014 Orange County has 19% more inventory than this time last year Escrows are down 2% and days on the market are up 18% Only 1.19% of all OC properties currently listed as distressed
Forecast CAR forecasts a -6.9% decline in sales for 2019 Core-Logic forecasts US home prices will increase 4.8% in 2019 CAR Forecasts California home prices will rise 3.1% in 2019 Cal State Fullerton forecasts a 4-5% prices in increase in SoCal in 2019 Chapman University forecasts a 2.9% price increase for OC in 2019
STAT of THE DAY
This year’s sharply falling mortgage rates boosted the number of SoCal households that theoretically could qualify to buy an entry level home to 257,000! That’s a lot of new potential buyers…
Did you Know?
July ended with a large number of active listings for Orange County and a slight increase in closed sales.
Total active listings: 9,260
New Listings in July: 3,664
Total closed sales: 2,865
Not much has changed from last month when looking at the numbers. The days on market has slightly increased. The data from the Infosparks and the CRMLS shows an average of 44 days on market.
Total Active listings: 9,467 we had an increase in inventory from May
Closed Sales: 2,693 which is slightly down from May closings
Supply continues to be on the upswing while closings are slightly down. With the increase in active listings, it becomes more important to price your home correctly. The strategy of "testing the market" on the MLS is costing time and money. It costs more time on the market which statistically reduces the final sale price.
It will be very important to look at all the available data to price your home. Comparable sales, condition of the property, price per square foot can all factor in the price.
We will do the homework and then put together the right marketing strategy for your home.
Total Active listings: 8,778
Closed Sales: 2,935
Supply is on an upswing since December of 2018 which is the norm every year after the holidays. July of 2014 was our highest peak of inventory and we could surpass that in the next few weeks if demand stays soft.
We are showing a shrinking inventory of housing under $500,000 (currently 1,478). Housing units priced under $500,000 will have a tendency to sell quickly but the housing units at this price point are fading away.
Conversely we have 3,831 units for sale over $1,000,000 in Orange County.
Based on information from California Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc. as of . This information is for your personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties you may be interested in purchasing. Display of MLS data is usually deemed reliable but is NOT guaranteed accurate by the MLS. Buyers are responsible for verifying the accuracy of all information and should investigate the data themselves or retain appropriate professionals. Information from sources other than the Listing Agent may have been included in the MLS data. Unless otherwise specified in writing, Broker/Agent has not and will not verify any information obtained from other sources. The Broker/Agent providing the information contained herein may or may not have been the Listing and/or Selling Agent.