Orange County Housing Market Reports: October to December 2026

Orange County Real Estate Market Report: October 12, 2026 - The Slowdown Is in Volume, Not in the Health of the Market

Quick Links: Inventory Stats | City-Specific Reports | Instant Home Valuation

Market Trends

Every week lately the story has been the same two words, and they are worth repeating because they are easy to confuse: slower sales volume, and sold prices holding even as asking prices ease.

Pending and under contract listings fell again this week to 1,616, the third straight weekly decline and another multi month low. New listings came in at just 538, the lightest week in a while. Fewer new deals are being written and fewer new homes are coming to market. That is the seasonal fall slowdown, pulled forward this year by rates that have stayed elevated.

Here is what is not happening. Sold prices are not falling apart, and the market is not seizing up. Going through the numbers city by city this week, days on market still looked healthy across almost all of Orange County. The county wide median held at 46 days for a third straight week, and the fastest segment, the $1 million to $2 million range, held at 39 days. Asking prices have drifted lower, which you will see in the stats below, but that is sellers meeting the market, and it is exactly why the homes that close are still closing at solid numbers.

Even better for sellers, the gap between sold price and list price actually narrowed this week in both tiers. Homes above $2.5 million closed an average of just 2.2 percent under asking, the tightest reading in weeks, and homes below $2.5 million came in at 1.3 percent. When fewer homes are selling but the ones that do sell are closing closer to the asking price, that tells you the slowdown is about buyers being selective, not about the market losing its footing.

So if you are a seller watching headlines about a cooling market and worrying, understand the distinction. There are fewer buyers out there right now than in the spring. But a well priced, well presented home is still selling at a normal pace and for close to what you are asking. The homes sitting are the ones priced ahead of the market.

New construction is one of the most interesting corners of the Orange County market right now, because it is where motivated builders meet a higher rate environment. If a brand new home is on your list, this is a good moment to be a prepared buyer.

For homes built in 2019 and newer, there are 642 active and coming soon new construction listings across the county, 56 of them new just this week, at a median list price of $1,659,000. The range is enormous, from a $465,000 condo up to a $69,998,000 estate, and about 31 percent of active inventory was built in 2026 or later, meaning it is brand new or still being completed.

One important caveat on those numbers. What shows up in the MLS is only part of what is actually available. Many builders still sell directly from their sales offices without listing publicly. That is changing, and more builder inventory is reaching the MLS than a year ago as builders use every avenue to move homes, but treat these figures as a floor, not a ceiling. The real number of new homes you could buy is higher than any public search shows.

New construction is also heavily concentrated. Irvine alone accounts for about a third of all active new construction in the county. Rancho Mission Viejo is the most accessible of the major new home areas at a median of $999,000, while Newport Beach anchors the luxury end.

Here is the most important thing I can tell you. Builders right now are motivated to move inventory, and if you are even considering working directly with one, talk to me first, before you walk into their sales office. I represent buyers directly with builders and negotiate for the things that actually move the needle: interest rate buydowns that can put your monthly payment well below what 7 percent would suggest, closing cost credits, and upgrade packages that add real value. The builder’s on site agent works for the builder, not for you.

On that rate point, here is why a buydown matters so much. On an $800,000 loan:

At 6.5 percent: about $5,057 per month
At 7.5 percent: about $5,594 per month
The difference: about $537 a month, or roughly $6,400 a year

A builder buydown or a creative lender can close much of that gap, which is exactly the kind of concession builders are offering right now to move homes. It is worth a conversation before you assume the numbers do not work.

Browse all active and coming soon new construction here: Orange County New Construction For Sale

I track every major new development across Orange County, including which cities are moving and which are stalling, here: New Developments in Orange County.

Get This Report In Your Inbox Every Week

If you find this report useful, the easiest way to stay current on the Orange County market is to have it delivered directly to you each Monday after I write it. No sales pitch. Just the data, straight from the MLS, with honest analysis from a broker who lives and works here.

Subscribe to the Weekly Housing Report

Orange County Inventory Statistics

Orange County inventory edged up to 5,020 active listings from 4,987 last week, holding near the 5,000 line. The notable movement was on the flow side. New listings slowed to 538 from 588, the lightest week in a while, and closings pulled back to 357 from 470. With both new supply and sales light, the total barely moved.

Pending and under contract listings fell again to 1,616 from 1,653, a third consecutive weekly decline and the clearest ongoing signal of the fall slowdown. This is the number I keep watching, because closings reflect deals written a month ago while pending shows where demand is right now. It continues to drift lower. U.S. single family inventory eased nationally to 898,139 from 902,112.

Orange County Days on Market Statistics

Average days on market held at 66 and the median held at 46 for a third straight week. The steadiness is the story. Even with demand cooling, the pace of the homes that are selling has not slipped.

Homes under $1 million came in at a median of 46 days, up one, with the active count climbing again to 1,954 from 1,919. That band keeps adding inventory week over week, the pattern I have flagged as the most rate sensitive part of the market. The $1 million to $2 million range held at a median of 39 days across 1,827 listings, still the fastest moving segment in the county. Homes at $2 million and above held at a median of 59 days across 1,256 listings.

Orange County Key Housing Statistics

Single family list prices continued to drift lower. The median slipped to $1,699,800 from $1,725,000, the first reading below $1.7 million in some time, and the average eased to $3,448,414. Condo and townhome list prices held at a median of $825,000. On the closed side, the single family median rose to $1,440,000 from $1,413,518, while the average came down to $1,902,155 on a lighter mix of high end closings. Condos closed at a median of $809,500, up from $779,000.

List prices easing while closed prices hold steady is the signature of a market where sellers are meeting buyers rather than one where values are dropping. The homes that sell are still clearing at solid numbers.

The sold to list gap improved in both tiers this week. Above $2.5 million, sellers closed an average of $93,502 below asking, or 2.2 percent, the tightest reading in weeks. Below $2.5 million, the gap narrowed to $15,739, or 1.3 percent. A better week at the negotiating table on both ends of the market.

This data excludes 55+ communities. Statistics reflect all Orange County residential property types unless noted.

Dana Point, San Clemente and San Juan Capistrano Market Snapshot

Single Family Homes

Across Dana Point, San Clemente, and San Juan Capistrano there are 194 active single family listings with a median asking price of $2,999,944 and a median price per square foot of $979.67, sitting at a median of 48.5 days on market.

Of the 506 single family homes that sold over the past six months, the median sale price was $2,150,000 at a median price per square foot of $888.54, with a median of just 13 days on market. That 13 day figure is the headline for South County. Well priced homes here are moving in about two weeks. The spread between the roughly $3 million active median and the $2,150,000 sold median is not a sign that active listings are overpriced. This is a stretch of coastline where oceanfront, ocean view, and larger estate properties list alongside interior homes, and those features carry real and very different values. The active pool leans toward the higher end and the most unique coastal product, which sits longer and pulls the median up, while the bulk of demand continues to clear closer to $2.15 million.

The pace does vary by city, and it is worth seeing. San Clemente single family homes are moving fastest at a median of 11 days with a sold median of $2,075,000. Dana Point is at 17 days and a higher sold median of $2,405,000, reflecting more oceanfront and view product. San Juan Capistrano sits at 19.5 days and a sold median of $2,100,000. Different pace, same healthy market, with the differences driven by price point and property type.

The 63 homes pending or under contract are working at a median of $2,295,000 with a median of 33 days on market, a solid pipeline against 194 actives and more confirmation that buyers are transacting where the market is actually clearing.

Condos and Townhomes

Across the three cities there are 81 active condo and townhome listings with a median asking price of $1,199,900 and a median price per square foot of $838.41, sitting at a median of 70 days on market. Twenty four are pending or under contract at a median of $1,077,000.

Of the 199 condos and townhomes that sold over the past six months, the median sale price was $1,100,000 at a median price per square foot of $779.80, with a median of just 14 days on market. The active median sits modestly above the sold median, which is the usual signal that the current active inventory skews toward larger or more view oriented units than what has been closing, rather than a market that is mispriced. The pending median of $1,077,000 sits right near the sold median, which is where the bulk of the market is transacting.

By city, Dana Point carries the higher end coastal condo product at a sold median of $1,346,938, San Clemente follows at $1,099,000, and San Juan Capistrano is the most accessible entry point at a sold median of $913,500. All three are moving quickly, with sold days on market in the 14 to 17 day range, a sign that well priced coastal condos continue to find buyers fast even as the broader market slows on volume.

Market Reports: Dana Point, San Clemente and San Juan Capistrano

 Looking for city-specific data? Explore our Orange County city market reports for detailed updates on each community, including Costa Mesa, Irvine, Newport Beach, Anaheim, San Clemente and all the cities in Orange County.

Selling Your Property in Orange County

If you're considering selling your property in Orange County, understanding the local market data is essential. Key insights like days on market and the price range of homes in your neighborhood can help you make smarter decisions. We cover more about selling your home in Orange County here. For a personalized, in-depth discussion, feel free to send us an email or text us at 949-430-7500. 

A great first step is knowing your home’s current market value. We've added a powerful new home valuation tool to our website to provide one of the most accurate estimates available. Check your home’s value here. Eric will cross reference MLS data and title records to verify the estimate provided.

Orange County Open Houses: As we head into the busy spring market, open house activity is surging across the county. On any given weekend, there are now well over 2,500 open houses scheduled, offering a fantastic opportunity for buyers to explore different neighborhoods and home styles in person. To help you plan your weekend tours, we maintain a comprehensive Orange County Open House Guide that is updated every Friday.

The list is conveniently sorted by city and price, with direct links to each property so you can view photos and details before you hit the road. Whether you are seriously searching or just starting to explore, it’s the most efficient way to see what the Orange County market has to offer. Orange County Open Houses.

If you're searching for Orange County luxury homes priced over $10,000,000 take a look at the 100 most recent listed properties at this link. Keep in mind that we offer private and confidential representation.

At Orange County Real Estate, Inc., we take great pride in our expertise and thoroughness, ensuring that none of these market dynamics are overlooked. Our commitment is to the success of our clients in navigating the Orange County real estate market. For more insights on how to effectively buy or sell in Orange County, or to connect with the best real estate agents in the area, we're here to help, please visit our website or reach out to us directly at 949-430-7500

Orange County Real Estate Market Report: October 5, 2026 - Mortgage Rates Hit a Three Year High as Inventory Slips Below 5,000

Quick Links: Inventory Stats | City-Specific Reports | Instant Home Valuation

Market Trends

Start with the headline number that looks like good news and is more complicated underneath. Orange County inventory fell to 4,987 this week, back under 5,000 for the first time in months. On its own that reads like a tightening market. It is not quite that simple.

A big piece of the decline is sellers leaving rather than selling. In the last seven days, 379 properties were delisted, a combination of expired and canceled listings. This is not a number I track every week, but I checked it because it jumped from the week before. There are many reasons a listing gets canceled, and a wave of them heading into fall is a fairly normal seasonal progression. Sellers who did not get their price over the summer pull back and wait for spring.

So when you see inventory drop, understand that some of it closed and some of it simply walked off the board. Closed sales did jump this week to 470 from 341, a real increase. But remember the timing. Those closings went under contract about a month ago, before rates pushed to where they are now. The fresher signal is pending and under contract, which fell again to 1,653, down 118 in a single week. Fewer new deals are replacing the ones closing.

On rates, the pressure kept building. Mortgage News Daily is quoting 7.57 percent on the 30 year fixed, the highest in roughly three years, and the Mortgage Bankers Association reported total application volume fell 6 percent for the week ending September 25. Higher rates, lower demand. One thing worth repeating for anyone sitting on the sidelines: not every lender is at the headline rate. Some are getting creative and finding ways to get borrowers under 7 percent, and on a loan this size that is worth a conversation before you assume the math does not work.

The longer term story got an interesting data point this week too. Realtor dot com published an analysis of what some are calling the silver tsunami. Aging baby boomer and Silent Generation homeowners are expected to free up 13.9 million homes nationally over the next decade, a 34 percent increase over the past ten years, with the handoff accelerating every year.

Here is the part that matters for how you read it. Most of that supply is family sized and larger homes, not starter homes. Only about 3 percent of the released inventory falls into the entry level category, because older owners of smaller homes tend to own them free and clear and have little reason to sell. So this wave does not relieve the entry level crunch, which is exactly the under $1 million squeeze we talk about here every week.

I expect this to touch Orange County, but gradually and unevenly, and probably less than the rest of the country. The researchers note the turnover is happening fastest in the Rust Belt and Midwest, not in expensive coastal markets like ours where owners have every incentive to hold. Where it does show up here, it will be in the mid and upper tier family and large home segments over the next decade. Paired with the 180,000 new units the state is mandating by 2029, it points to real added supply in those segments and gradual downward price pressure over time, not a sudden shift. I am tracking the new construction side of that across every Orange County city here: New Developments in Orange County.

Get This Report In Your Inbox Every Week

If you find this report useful, the easiest way to stay current on the Orange County market is to have it delivered directly to you each Monday after I write it. No sales pitch. Just the data, straight from the MLS, with honest analysis from a broker who lives and works here.

Subscribe to the Weekly Housing Report

Orange County Inventory Statistics

Orange County inventory fell to 4,987 active listings from 5,061 last week, back below 5,000 for the first time in months. The decline came from three directions. New listings slowed to 588 from 597, closings jumped to 470 from 341, and 379 listings were delisted through expirations and cancellations. That combination of more homes closing and more sellers pulling back pulled the total down.

Pending and under contract listings fell again to 1,653 from 1,771, a drop of 118 and the lowest level in many months. This is the metric I keep pointing to. While closings this week reflect contracts written a month ago, the pending number is the live read on demand, and it continues to slide. U.S. single family inventory kept climbing nationally to 902,112 from 895,398.

Orange County Days on Market Statistics

Average days on market held at 66 and the median held at 46 for a second straight week. Underneath, all three price bands actually improved by a day, a small sign that the homes still transacting are moving at a steady pace even as the overall market cools.

Homes under $1 million came in at a median of 45 days, down one, with the active count easing to 1,919 from 1,938. The $1 million to $2 million range improved to a median of 39 days across 1,825 listings, still the fastest moving segment in the county. Homes at $2 million and above improved to a median of 58 days across 1,257 listings, with that count dropping meaningfully from 1,301, likely reflecting some of the high end cancellations.

Orange County Key Housing Statistics

Single family list prices eased this week. The median dropped to $1,725,000 from $1,749,000, and the average slipped to $3,488,737. Condo and townhome list prices held at a median of $825,000. On the closed side, both segments firmed up. The single family closed median rose to $1,413,518 from $1,400,000 and the average climbed to $2,089,224. Condos closed at a median of $779,000, up from $752,500.

List prices drifting down while closed prices hold is the pattern of a market where sellers are adjusting expectations to meet buyers, and the homes that do sell are still clearing at solid numbers.

The sold versus list gap was mixed. Above $2.5 million, sellers closed an average of $145,424 below asking, or 2.9 percent, an improvement from 3.5 percent last week. Below $2.5 million, the gap widened to $19,913, or 1.6 percent, from 1.1 percent. The high end had a better week at the negotiating table while the broad middle gave back a little more.

This data excludes 55+ communities. Statistics reflect all Orange County residential property types unless noted.

Tustin Market Snapshot

Tustin Single Family Homes and North Tustin Single Family Homes

There are 45 active single family listings in Tustin with a median asking price of $1,599,000 and a median price per square foot of $776.09, sitting at a median of 40 days on market.

Of the 129 single family homes that sold over the past six months, the median sale price was $1,359,000 at a median price per square foot of $702.43, with a median of just 12 days on market. That 12 day figure is the headline. Tustin single family homes priced right are moving in under two weeks. The gap between the active median and the sold median reflects the usual range of product. Larger and higher end homes make up more of the current active pool and sit a little longer, which pulls the median up, while the bulk of demand continues to clear near $1.36 million.

The 20 homes pending or under contract are working at a median of $1,432,000 with a median of 33 days on market, a solid pipeline against 45 actives. The expired and canceled data marks the ceiling. Sixteen listings expired at a median of $1,582,000 after a median of 88 days, and 14 were canceled at a median of $1,432,944. Sellers pushing toward $1.58 million and above are finding more resistance than those priced at or near where the market is clearing.

North Tustin is an unincorporated hillside community with no condo or townhome inventory. Every transaction here is single family, reflecting the area's larger lots, more privacy, and a clear step up in price from the city of Tustin.

There are 24 active single family listings in North Tustin with a median asking price of $2,644,444 and a median price per square foot of $765.98, sitting at a median of 35 days on market. Of the 82 single family homes that sold over the past six months, the median sale price was $2,105,000 at a median price per square foot of $758.42, with a median of just 14 days on market. Homes priced correctly in North Tustin move fast, and the price per square foot between active and sold is within about $8, a sign the active inventory is priced sensibly for what it is.

The 19 homes pending or under contract are working at a median of $2,025,000 with a median of just 18 days on market, a strong pipeline against 24 actives. The off market data shows where patience runs out. Six listings expired at a median of $2,547,000 after a median of 81 days, and 13 were canceled at a median of $2,700,000 after a median of 79 days. North Tustin buyers will pay a premium for the right home, but the upper range of $2.7 million and above requires either exceptional value or a seller willing to wait.

Tustin Condos and Townhomes

There are 55 active condo and townhome listings in Tustin with a median asking price of $800,000 and a median price per square foot of $622.07, sitting at a median of 44 days on market. Sixteen are pending or under contract at a median of $862,000.

Of the 105 condos and townhomes that sold over the past six months, the median sale price was $820,000 at a median price per square foot of $625.00, with a median of 23 days on market. This is a tightly aligned segment. The active median of $800,000, the pending median of $862,000, and the sold median of $820,000 all sit within a narrow band, and the price per square foot across all three is nearly identical, which tells you buyers and sellers largely agree on value. Well priced units are going under contract in about three weeks.

The off market data points to a clear ceiling. Thirty two listings expired at a median of $934,380 after a median of 88 days, and 39 more were canceled at a median of $889,000. The Tustin condo and townhome market moves well at and below roughly $820,000. Above $900,000, sellers are consistently finding fewer buyers.

Looking for city-specific data? Explore our Orange County city market reports for detailed updates on each community, including Costa Mesa, Irvine, Newport Beach, Anaheim, San Clemente and all the cities in Orange County.

Selling Your Property in Orange County

If you're considering selling your property in Orange County, understanding the local market data is essential. Key insights like days on market and the price range of homes in your neighborhood can help you make smarter decisions. We cover more about selling your home in Orange County here. For a personalized, in-depth discussion, feel free to send us an email or text us at 949-430-7500. 

A great first step is knowing your home’s current market value. We've added a powerful new home valuation tool to our website to provide one of the most accurate estimates available. Check your home’s value here. Eric will cross reference MLS data and title records to verify the estimate provided.

Orange County Open Houses: As we head into the busy spring market, open house activity is surging across the county. On any given weekend, there are now well over 2,500 open houses scheduled, offering a fantastic opportunity for buyers to explore different neighborhoods and home styles in person. To help you plan your weekend tours, we maintain a comprehensive Orange County Open House Guide that is updated every Friday.

The list is conveniently sorted by city and price, with direct links to each property so you can view photos and details before you hit the road. Whether you are seriously searching or just starting to explore, it’s the most efficient way to see what the Orange County market has to offer. Orange County Open Houses.

If you're searching for Orange County luxury homes priced over $10,000,000 take a look at the 100 most recent listed properties at this link. Keep in mind that we offer private and confidential representation.

At Orange County Real Estate, Inc., we take great pride in our expertise and thoroughness, ensuring that none of these market dynamics are overlooked. Our commitment is to the success of our clients in navigating the Orange County real estate market. For more insights on how to effectively buy or sell in Orange County, or to connect with the best real estate agents in the area, we're here to help, please visit our website or reach out to us directly at 949-430-7500