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June 23, 2026

Laguna Hills Terravita Project: 480 New Homes Explained

By Eric Engelbert

A long quiet stretch of office buildings on Mill Creek Drive in Laguna Hills is about to become one of the largest residential redevelopments the city has seen in decades. The project, called Terravita, will replace two former office campuses with 480 new homes. The Laguna Hills City Council approved it in February 2026 on a 4 to 1 vote, though the developer did not formally announce it until June.

Mill Creek Drive itself is easy to miss. It is not a heavily traveled corridor, and most drivers passing through Laguna Hills on Moulton Parkway or El Toro Road would never notice the two office campuses tucked along it. East of Moulton Parkway, the area is lined with additional offices and light industrial buildings rather than rooftops, which is exactly the kind of low profile, already built out commercial setting that makes a project like this easier to slot in without disrupting an established residential neighborhood directly. It is, in a lot of ways, a quietly well chosen site for 480 new homes.

If you own a home nearby, or you are watching this market as a buyer or investor, here is what is actually happening, what residents are concerned about, and what it could mean for values in the surrounding subdivisions.

What Is Being Built, and Where

The project sits on 18.5 acres at the northeast corner of Mill Creek Drive and Ridge Route Drive, combining two former office properties. According to the City of Laguna Hills' own planning records, the full site spans 23272, 23282, 23422, 23382, and 23332 Mill Creek Drive, plus 24461 and 24411 Ridge Route Drive, covering the HERE at Laguna Hills campus and Spectrum Summit Plaza. For more than 40 years this land was strictly commercial office space. Spectrum Summit Plaza was reported to be about 95% leased with roughly 40 smaller tenants before the sale, though no high profile anchor tenant names turned up in the public record. Cigna sold the HERE campus to the development team for $64 million in 2022, and the Summit Plaza parcels sold separately for $14.5 million in 2023.

The developer is a partnership between Las Vegas based Kingsbarn Realty Capital and Development and Irvine based Kelemen Company. The plan calls for demolishing seven existing office buildings and replacing them with:

  • 259 attached homes for sale, a mix of three story duets, duplexes, and triplexes
  • 221 apartment units in a single, six story building, including 24 reserved for very low income households
  • A six level, 380 stall parking structure
  • Private parks and recreation space woven through the site

This 259 and 221 breakdown, 480 units total, is confirmed in the developer's own Letter of Justification filed with the City of Laguna Hills on February 18, 2026, and again in the project's Fiscal Impact Analysis. A few secondary commercial real estate listing sites describe an earlier version of the project at 254 single-family units and 210 apartment units in a five story building. That figure does not appear in any city planning record, so it looks like outdated marketing data rather than a competing official source. The 480 unit total is the one to go by.

The surrounding stretch along Moulton Parkway remains largely commercial and light industrial, which limits the number of existing residential neighbors sitting directly inside the construction zone.

Map of Terravita Laguna Hills

The closest single family home subdivision is Laguna Terrace, adjacent to the south side of Ridge Route Drive. It is a neighborhood of mostly single level homes, currently selling between $1,000,000 and $1,250,000, and it sits closer to the project site than any other detached home community in the area.

The Business Journal estimates total project cost above $300 million, or roughly $650,000 per unit before the parking structure. A construction start date has not yet been publicly announced, which matters for anyone trying to time a purchase around this project, more on that below.

Why the Council Approved It Despite Mixed Feelings

This project did not sail through on enthusiasm. The council vote was 4 to 1, and even some of the yes votes came with reservations. Councilman Dave Wheeler voted no and described the state's housing mandate as "an endless morass." Councilwoman Erica Pezold voted yes but said publicly that she would have preferred single family homes with accessory dwelling units instead, and that "this project isn't the best project. It's not."

The driver behind all of it is the state's Regional Housing Needs Assessment, which requires Laguna Hills to plan for 1,985 new housing units, with 46% reserved for low and very low income households. Cities that do not zone for their required density risk fines and the loss of state funding. The city identified this office campus, underused in a softening office market, as one of its easiest paths to hitting that number without touching established single family neighborhoods directly.

What the Community Is Worried About

Local reaction has been mixed at best. The concerns showing up most consistently from nearby residents center on traffic along Mill Creek Drive and Ridge Route Drive, construction disruption over what could be a multi year build, and the strain an additional 480 households could put on local schools, which are part of the Saddleback Valley Unified district.

The property directly across Mill Creek Drive is Laguna Village, a condominium community built in 1976. Of all the surrounding residential properties, Laguna Village sits closest to the construction zone, and residents there are the ones most likely to feel the day to day impact of grading, hauling, and vertical construction once the project breaks ground. Veeh Reservoir sits just behind the site and supplies water to the surrounding community. Nothing in the public record indicates that reservoir maintenance or improvements are part of Terravita's scope, which means protecting water quality during a multi year construction project, grading, runoff, erosion control, falls under standard environmental compliance rather than a dedicated reservoir upgrade. It is worth watching the city's water quality monitoring reports once grading begins, simply to confirm the reservoir is being protected throughout construction.

On the school question, the data is more nuanced than a simple downgrade. Laguna Hills High School actually carries a solid reputation, an A grade from Niche and a top 350 statewide ranking from US News, with a 96% graduation rate and an International Baccalaureate program, a rare offering even among strong schools. But proficiency rates on state math testing run lower, around 31%, which is the kind of number that shows up in school rating sites and can weigh on buyer perception even when the school's overall profile is strong. That gap between reputation and raw test score data is likely part of why Laguna Hills home values have not fully caught up to comparable coastal and inland Orange County cities, and it is worth watching whether 480 new households shift those numbers in either direction once school age children move in.

None of these concerns are unique to Terravita. Every infill housing project built under the state's RHNA mandate generates some version of this same conversation. What makes this one notable is the scale, 480 units is a meaningful addition to a city of Laguna Hills' size, concentrated on a single site.

What These Units Might Cost, and the Likely Bedroom Mix

Kingsbarn and Kelemen have not released floor plans or a public price list for Terravita, but there is now an actual sourced number to work from. The project's Fiscal Impact Analysis, prepared by Kosmont Companies for Kingsbarn Realty Capital and filed with the City of Laguna Hills, updated in February 2026, states the project's own planning assumption: an average sale price of $1,680,000 per for-sale unit. That is not a market comparison, it is the developer's own financial filing with a government agency, which makes it considerably more reliable than estimating off nearby comps.

No bedroom by bedroom breakdown has been released, but this average reframes the picture. The 259 for-sale homes are a mix of 46 duets, 107 duplexes and triplexes, and 106 duplexes, three story attached product likely spanning 2 to 4 bedroom layouts. If the average across that whole mix is $1.68 million, the smaller 2 bedroom units almost certainly sit below that average, while the larger 4 bedroom triplex units are more likely priced above it, not at or below $1,000,000. The 221 unit apartment building, including the 24 affordable units, is the more likely home for a studio to 2 bedroom rental mix and is valued separately from the for-sale average.

For context, the closest active new construction comparable, Rancho Mission Viejo, has 3 to 4 bedroom townhomes from Shea Homes and Lennar starting in the low $1 millions for fall 2026 delivery, and area medians run from about $912,500 in Aliso Viejo to roughly $1,069,000 in Laguna Hills. Terravita's official average sale price assumption is meaningfully higher than those numbers, which suggests the project, or at least its largest units, is being underwritten as a premium product for this submarket rather than a discount one. A $1,000,000 four bedroom home here looks less likely than one priced well above $1.68 million, based on the developer's own numbers.

Quick Math on the Project's Costs and Potential Revenue

The Business Journal's reporting puts total project cost above $300 million, or roughly $650,000 per unit blended across all 480 units, before the parking structure. That is a construction cost figure, not a sale price. The project's own Fiscal Impact Analysis gives a real number for the revenue side, an assumed average sale price of $1,680,000 per for-sale unit.

Multiply that across the 259 for-sale homes and the for-sale component alone pencils out to roughly $434.9 million in gross sales revenue, well above the $300 million total project cost figure reported elsewhere. The same analysis estimates the completed project's total assessed value at approximately $480 million once the apartment building is factored in. By comparison, the existing office buildings on the site are assessed at about $79.5 million today and last traded for roughly $75.5 million combined, which gives a sense of just how much value redevelopment is expected to create.

The 221 unit apartment building works differently, it produces income through rent rather than a one time sale, and the Fiscal Impact Analysis assigns it an assessed value of roughly $356,200 per market rate unit rather than a sale price.

None of this accounts for land basis, financing costs, or the affordable housing requirements baked into the approval, all of which affect the developer's actual return. But the gap between an estimated $300 million build cost and an estimated $480 million completed value, with for-sale revenue alone projected near $435 million, is the kind of spread that explains why a developer takes on a project this size despite the entitlement headaches.

What This Could Mean for Nearby Home Values

Projects like this typically affect nearby values in two phases.

During construction, it is reasonable to expect some softness in the immediately adjacent subdivisions. Laguna Village, directly across Mill Creek Drive, is the property most likely to feel this first and most directly, simply due to proximity. Construction noise, dust, truck traffic, and a constantly changing streetscape are not appealing to buyers, and sellers near active job sites often need to price more competitively or wait longer for an offer. This is a well documented pattern, not specific to Terravita, large scale residential and commercial buildouts routinely create a temporary drag on resale activity in the immediate radius while dirt is moving.

After completion, the picture tends to flip. New rooftops bring new rooftops worth of demand for nearby restaurants, retail, and services, which is generally a net positive for surrounding property values once the dust settles. 480 new households, a mix of first time buyers, renters, and downsizers based on how the developer has described the target market, also means 480 new comparable sales and rental data points feeding into future valuations in the immediate area, which can support pricing for nearby resale homes rather than dilute it, especially if Terravita's for sale units price at a premium per square foot relative to older surrounding stock.

This pattern, values dipping short term before recovering and growing long term, lines up with how these cycles have generally played out elsewhere in Orange County. The bigger variable here is timeline. Since the developer has not announced a construction start date, the "discount window" for buyers willing to tolerate construction has not opened yet, and it is impossible to say today exactly how long it will last once it does. Projects of this size, demolition, infrastructure, vertical construction, and lease up or sellout, typically run three to five years start to finish.

For anyone who wants to track this rather than take it on faith, the Laguna Hills real estate market report updates every 5 minutes with average list price, average close price, and days on market pulled directly from the MLS. Watching those numbers over the next few years is the most reliable way to see whether this construction dip and recovery pattern actually shows up in Laguna Hills the way it has elsewhere.

Could an Investor Time This Market?

Possibly, and there is more than one way to approach it. A few strategies worth understanding, none of which should be treated as financial advice without running your own numbers and talking to your accountant or financial advisor:

  • Buy during the construction dip. If a homeowner near the site needs to sell during active construction and prices accordingly, that can be an entry point for a buy and hold investor who is comfortable riding out a year or two of disruption in exchange for a lower basis.
  • Buy and hold for the long term reposition. This is the lower risk, lower effort version, purchase nearby now, hold through construction, and let the neighborhood's amenity base and comparable sales catch up once Terravita delivers.
  • Watch the for sale product itself. The 259 duets, duplexes, and triplexes will be new construction in a market where most surrounding inventory is decades old. Early phase pricing on new construction sometimes comes in below where later phases sell, once the developer has sales momentum and fewer incentives to offer.
  • Rental positioning near the apartment component. A 221 unit apartment building will bring renters who need everyday services nearby. Investors holding smaller multifamily or single family rentals within a short distance may see steadier rental demand once that population lands.
  • Watch the school data over time. If Laguna Hills home values have genuinely been suppressed by school perception rather than reality, any shift in those numbers, in either direction, as new families move in could be an early signal worth tracking before the broader market reprices around it.
  • Benchmark against where new construction is already concentrated. Right now the heaviest concentration of new build product in Orange County is in Rancho Mission Viejo, followed by Irvine, with its Great Park and Portola Springs neighborhoods, Tustin, where Tustin Legacy continues to build out, and Lake Forest. Comparing what builders are charging for similar floor plans in those cities is the most reliable way to sanity check Terravita's pricing once it is actually released.

The honest caveat: none of this works without a real construction timeline, which has not been released yet. I am tracking the city's project page and will update this post the moment a schedule is announced.

Thinking About Buying, Selling, or Investing Near This Project?

Whether you own a home near Mill Creek Drive and want to understand how this affects your timing, or you are an investor looking at the surrounding neighborhoods with this project in mind, I am happy to run the actual numbers for your specific situation and street.

Want to talk through what Terravita could mean for your home or your next investment? Call or text Eric at 949-430-7500 or visit ocrealestateinc.com.

Posted in Real Estate News
June 16, 2026

California Migration Patterns: Updated 2026 Data and What It Means for Orange County

By Eric Engelbert

The Headlines Say People Are Leaving. Here Is What the Numbers Actually Show.

From 2020 to 2024, California lost a net 1.46 million residents to other states. That number gets used to argue the state is collapsing. The reality is more specific. The people leaving are not a random cross-section of California. There is a clear profile, a clear reason, and a clear set of places they are landing. And in Orange County, home prices are not reflecting the narrative at all. Inventory here is tighter now than it was a year ago, not looser. Here is what the data actually shows.

The State Numbers

From 2020 to 2024, California lost a net total of 1.46 million residents to domestic migration, people moving to other states minus people moving in from other states. In the most recent year on record, July 2024 to July 2025, that net domestic outflow grew to about 216,000 people, matching levels last seen in 2018 and 2019, per Hans Johnson at the Public Policy Institute of California.

California's overall population did grow slightly in 2025, up about 19,200 people to roughly 39,529,000. But that growth came entirely from international arrivals, about 126,000 new residents from abroad, which offset the domestic losses. Remove international migration and the state shrinks. California has been on that side of the ledger for over two decades now.

The states absorbing the most arrivals from California and other high-cost states, based on the most recent multi-year data:

  1. Texas, largest numeric gain in the country, adding roughly 391,000 residents in a single year
  2. Florida, adding roughly 197,000 residents
  3. South Carolina, fastest growing by percentage at around 1.5% annually
  4. North Carolina, largest numeric gain among Southern states outside Texas and Florida
  5. Arizona, consistently top five for both population growth and net domestic migration
  6. Idaho, around 1.4% annual growth
  7. Utah, driven by both migration and high birth rates

The most common destinations for Californians specifically, based on Census data, are Texas, Nevada, Arizona, Washington, Florida, Oregon, and New York, in that order.

Who Is Actually Leaving

The picture most people have of someone leaving California is a homeowner cashing out equity and starting fresh somewhere cheaper. The data does not back that up. The California Policy Lab at UC Berkeley tracked anonymized credit records from 2016 to 2025 and found that people who leave California have credit scores about 17 points lower than neighbors who stay, carry roughly $5,500 more in student debt, and have homeownership rates 33% lower. The people leaving are skewing younger, more likely renting, and under more financial pressure.

The move tends to pay off. Within a year of leaving, Californians find rents about 30%, or $631 a month, lower in their new city. The median home price where they land is roughly $396,000, or 48%, less than what they left behind. Within seven years of leaving, Californians are 48% more likely to own a home than if they had stayed.

The honest version of this story is not that everyone is leaving. It is that California is losing a disproportionate share of renters and lower-income households who are priced out, while the homeowners who can afford to stay, largely do. That distinction matters a lot when you are trying to understand what it means for local real estate.

Who Is Buying

While domestic migration flows out, international buyers have become a meaningfully larger part of who is purchasing in California. Foreign buyers spent $56 billion on US homes between April 2024 and March 2025. California captured about 15% of that volume, the second highest share of any state. Nearly 60% of those international buyers in California come from Asia or Oceania. Buyers from China alone paid cash 71% of the time at an average purchase price of about $1.2 million. Across all international buyers nationally, 56% paid cash, compared to 28% among typical US buyers.

That combination, fewer lower-income renter households able to stay, paired with a consistent wave of cash-heavy international buyers, helps explain why prices have held up even while the population narrative says people are leaving. Supply is not meeting the demand that is actually here.

What This Looks Like in Orange County

Orange County follows the same pattern as the state, just at a smaller scale. The county posted a net population loss of about 6,100 people in 2024, the most recent county-level data available. That breaks down into roughly 22,400 more people moving out to other parts of the country than moving in from other states, offset by about 29,800 more international arrivals than departures. Locals are leaving for cheaper markets. International buyers are filling part of the gap.

I have seen this on both sides of the transaction. In the past year I have sold properties for a couple who moved to Atlanta, a couple who moved to South Carolina, and a couple who moved to Utah, all trading Orange County equity for lower costs elsewhere. I am also working with buyers actively purchasing here, including an international buyer from India, which is consistent with what the national data shows.

Where the local story gets interesting is inventory. National reports have suggested Orange County supply is roughly flat year over year. My own numbers say otherwise. On June 15, 2025, total active inventory in Orange County stood at 5,121 properties. On June 15, 2026, that number had dropped to 4,800 properties, down about 6.3%. The market here is not loosening. It is tightening.

I track this weekly. The Orange County housing report on this site has the archived data going back, so you can compare June 2025 to June 2026 city by city. The tightening shows up across different buyer types. Newport Beach is driven by coastal and international demand. Laguna Niguel is move-up family demand. Yorba Linda attracts buyers looking for larger properties and the school district. All three are seeing the same supply squeeze.

What Is Happening in the Places People Are Moving To

Several years out from the peak pandemic relocation wave, the picture in destination markets has changed. Remote work flexibility is still a factor, but it has settled down as a primary driver. The main reason people are leaving California now is affordability, the same as it has been for years, just more acute.

What has also changed is that the "cheap" markets are not as cheap as they were. Years of sustained inbound migration pushed home prices well above pre-pandemic levels in places like Boise, Austin, and Salt Lake City. Someone moving from Orange County today is still getting more for their money, but the spread has narrowed since 2021 and 2022. Meanwhile, roads, schools, and water infrastructure in fast-growing metros continue to lag population growth, sometimes by years. The trade-off is real, and for buyers who move, it often still pencils out. But it is a more complicated calculation than it was four years ago.

Thinking About a Move or a Sale?

If you are watching these trends and trying to figure out what they mean for a home you own or are planning to buy in Orange County, the data is useful but it does not replace knowing your specific city and neighborhood. I track inventory, days on market, and sale prices weekly across every OC city. The market reports by city on this site are a good place to start if you want to see exactly how your area is performing right now and how that compares to a year ago.

If you are considering selling and want a realistic picture of what your home is worth in this market, or if you are thinking about buying and want to understand where inventory actually stands city by city, reach out directly.

Call or text Eric at 949-430-7500 or visit ocrealestateinc.com to get started.
Posted in Real Estate News
June 8, 2026

The Orange County Market Looks Healthy. Here Is What the Numbers Are Not Telling You.

By Eric Engelbert

Every week I publish an Orange County housing market report. And every week in 2026, the headline looks more or less the same. Inventory is slightly behind last year. Sales volume is on pace to match or slightly surpass 2025. The median sales price has ticked up. Properties going under contract each week look solid. On paper, the market is plugging along just fine.

But I have been doing this long enough to know that healthy-looking numbers can tell an incomplete story. Beneath the surface of this market, there are forces at work that every Orange County homeowner should understand, whether you are thinking about selling, holding, or simply wondering what your home is actually worth today and what that wealth means for your future.

What the Numbers Actually Show

Let's start with some context. In 2021, Orange County recorded 35,189 residential sales, a historic high fueled by pandemic-era demand and near-zero interest rates. When mortgage rates spiked in 2022, total sales fell sharply to 24,403, a 30% drop in a single year. That reset has largely held. We are not in a boom. We are in a market that found a floor and has been steady on it.

Inventory tells the same story. In 2015, Orange County had close to 9,000 properties listed for sale at any given time. By 2019, pre-pandemic, that had settled to around 6,000 to 7,000. Today we are operating with roughly 4,710 active listings, nearly half of what was considered a normal pre-pandemic market. That shortage of supply is the single biggest reason the market has not softened the way some analysts predicted it would when rates rose.

The median single-family home price in Orange County was approximately $1,200,000 in December 2021. By mid-2024 it had reached $1,800,000. That is 50% appreciation in roughly three years. Prices have held near those levels, a remarkable feat given elevated interest rates that were supposed to bring the market down.

The price segment moving fastest right now is the $1 million to $2 million range. This is not a move-up or luxury product. In Orange County, this is a single-family home with a yard. It is the entry point for families who want a house. The days on market in this segment are among the lowest in the county.

OC Days on Market This Week / Total Listings Last Week
Average Days on Market 59 59
Median Days on Market 39 39
Under $1,000,000 38 / 1,610 38 / 1,595
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 31 / 1,710 32 / 1,675
$2,000,000 and Up 51 / 1,403 49 / 1,373

Homes this week are selling just below list price, which is consistent with a balanced to slightly competitive market. This is a measured, disciplined market.

Reading Between the Lines: Who Is Actually Buying?

Here is the question worth asking. If buyer demand is good and days on market are low, why has sales volume been running near its post-2022 floor? The answer is not a lack of willing buyers. It is a lack of buyers who can actually close.

Nationally, first-time buyers accounted for just 21% of all home sales last year, the lowest share in decades. In Orange County, that figure is almost certainly lower. When only 18% of county households can afford a median-priced home, first-time buyers are largely priced out before they start. The buyers who are active in this market today are primarily equity-rich homeowners trading up or down, dual high-income households, and cash buyers. The pool has narrowed. The competition within that pool remains intense.

What looks like a healthy market from the outside is, in part, a market that has shrunk down to the participants who can afford to transact. Everyone else is either locked out or locked in.

Locked In: The Golden Handcuffs Keeping Sellers on the Sidelines

The most significant force suppressing Orange County inventory right now is not the economy or buyer hesitation. It is the homeowners who purchased or refinanced at 2.5% to 3.5% mortgage rates between 2020 and 2022. Selling their home means giving up that rate and stepping into today's market at 6.5% to 7%. For many, the math simply does not work. They are not unhappy where they are. They are just trapped by a financial advantage they cannot afford to walk away from.

Layer Proposition 13 on top of that. Long-time Orange County homeowners are paying property taxes based on what they paid for their home 20 or 30 years ago. In many cases, that is a tax base of $700,000 on a home worth $2 million today. The moment they sell, that cushion is gone. Their next home, wherever it is, comes with a tax bill based on today's purchase price. For a fixed-income retiree, that difference alone can be thousands of dollars a year.

I have clients who call me every few months, and every time I visit them I hear the same thing. The stairs are getting harder. The house is too big. The yard is a lot of work. But they will not move. They love their neighborhood. Their mortgage is paid off. Their property tax bill is a fraction of what it would be anywhere else. They are worth close to $2 million in home equity and they are sitting on it, not because they are making a wrong decision, but because the financial and lifestyle math makes it incredibly difficult to leave. They are not alone. There are thousands of households like theirs across Orange County, quietly holding the market back from a more natural level of supply.

The Tax Burden of Selling a Home You Have Owned for 25 Years

For homeowners who bought in Orange County in the late 1990s or early 2000s, the equity built up in their home is extraordinary. A home purchased for $450,000 in 1999 could easily be worth $2 million or more today. That is a gain of well over $1.5 million. Selling that home triggers a federal capital gains tax liability that many homeowners do not fully anticipate until they are sitting across from their accountant.

The current federal exclusion allows individuals to exclude up to $250,000 in gains from the sale of a primary residence, or $500,000 for married couples. In most parts of the country, that covers the majority of the profit. In Orange County, it barely makes a dent. Gains well above the exclusion are taxed at the federal capital gains rate, plus California's state income tax, which applies to capital gains as ordinary income and can reach 13.3% at the top bracket. The combined tax bill on a large Orange County gain can reach 30% or more of the profit above the exclusion.

There is legislation being discussed in Washington called the Nest Egg Protection Act that would temporarily raise the federal exclusion to $1 million for homeowners 65 and older who have owned their primary residence for at least 25 years. It has not passed and there is no certainty it will, but it reflects a growing recognition that long-time homeowners in high-cost markets are facing an outsized tax burden. It is worth watching, and worth discussing with a CPA who specializes in real estate before you make any decisions.

None of this means selling is the wrong move. For many homeowners, even after taxes, the equity they capture is life-changing. The key is going in with eyes open and a plan. That starts with understanding your actual net proceeds, not just your sale price.

Hard Assets Hold Their Value. Orange County Has Always Known That.

We are living in a period of genuine uncertainty. Interest rates remain elevated. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have unsettled global markets. There is growing public frustration in the United States about government spending, foreign aid, and an economy where millions of households feel squeezed. Add in a tariff environment that is reshaping trade, and it is fair to ask whether any investment is safe.

Real property has historically been one of the most reliable answers to that question. When financial markets are volatile, when currencies are under pressure, and when the geopolitical picture is unclear, hard assets tend to hold their value. You cannot print more land in Laguna Beach or Newport Beach. The ocean view does not go away. The school districts do not disappear. The weather remains. These are structural advantages that do not fluctuate with a Fed announcement.

Orange County in particular has a track record that speaks for itself. When the 2008 financial crisis hit, Southern California real estate took a significant hit. But Orange County home values recovered faster than nearly every surrounding area. Inland Empire markets took years to claw back. Parts of Los Angeles took longer. Orange County bounced back more quickly because the underlying demand, driven by jobs, lifestyle, and a finite supply of desirable land, never went away for long. That resilience is not an accident. It is structural.

For homeowners who plan to stay, that is reassuring. For homeowners who are on the fence about selling, it raises a fair question: if the asset keeps holding its value and you are sitting on substantial equity, is waiting simply costing you opportunity?

What Happens When You Do Sell: Stories From Clients Who Cashed Out

Over the years I have worked with a number of Orange County homeowners who made the decision to sell, capture their equity, and start fresh somewhere else. These are not people who gave up on California. They are people who made a deliberate financial decision and have not looked back.

Clients who sold in Orange County and bought in Idaho paid cash for a home on several acres, pocketed the difference, and cut their cost of living in half. Clients who moved to North Carolina bought a spacious home in a beautiful community near the coast for less than a third of what their Orange County property was worth, with zero mortgage. Clients now in Florida own a waterfront home outright and have money working for them in retirement accounts. Clients in Texas bought in a neighborhood they love, pay no state income tax, and told me recently that the move was the best financial decision they ever made. And clients in Ohio own a home free and clear and are living very comfortably on what they consider the interest alone from the remaining equity they invested.

None of them are struggling. None of them regret the decision. What they had in common was the courage to run the numbers honestly and the willingness to redefine what "home" means to them. In every case, the equity they built in Orange County became the foundation for the next chapter of their lives. That is what 25 years of ownership in one of the most desirable real estate markets in the country can do for you.

This is not an argument that everyone should leave. Orange County is a remarkable place to live, and for many people the right answer is to stay. But if you have been sitting on equity for years, telling yourself you'll think about it later, it may be worth asking what "later" is actually waiting for.

Will New Housing Supply Change the Picture?

California's housing element law requires cities across Orange County to rezone and plan for tens of thousands of new housing units over the next decade. On paper, this should eventually increase supply and ease some of the pressure on buyers. In practice, the gap between planned units and permitted, built, and occupied units has historically been enormous. Entitlement delays, construction costs, and neighborhood opposition slow the pipeline significantly.

Even if the housing element goals are partially met, the new inventory will skew toward attached housing, condos, and townhomes in transit corridors, not the single-family homes with yards that continue to be the most in-demand product in the county. The housing element may help over time, but it is unlikely to fundamentally shift the supply dynamics for the types of homes most Orange County families want within the next few years.

So What Does This Mean If You Own a Home in Orange County?

The market is not broken. It is not headed for a crash. Orange County real estate has proven repeatedly that it can absorb challenges and come back stronger. The numbers each week are not alarming. But they are operating in a compressed environment with a narrower buyer pool, artificially low supply, and a set of financial obstacles that are keeping a large number of potential transactions from happening.

If you are a long-time homeowner, you are sitting at the center of that dynamic. You have equity that most people in this country will never accumulate. You have options, even if the tax picture is complicated and even if leaving the neighborhood feels hard. The question worth sitting with is not whether the market will support a sale. It will. The question is what you want the next ten years to look like, and whether the home you are in right now is still the right vehicle to get you there.

I am here to help you understand what selling would actually mean for you specifically, in your neighborhood, with your numbers. That conversation looks different for every homeowner, and it is one I am happy to have without any pressure or obligation.

Curious what your home is worth and what the numbers look like for your situation? Call or text Eric at 949-430-7500 or visit ocrealestateinc.com.
Posted in Real Estate News
May 28, 2026

From JCPenney to 167 Condos: What the Village at Orange Redevelopment Means for Orange County Housing

By Eric Engelbert

Update: May 2026. Demolition of the long-vacant JCPenney building at The Village at Orange started in April 2025. In its place, developer Integral Communities and homebuilder Lennar Homes are planning 167 for-sale townhome-style condominiums. The project still needs to clear entitlements and environmental review. The mall itself is not being demolished. Only the JCPenney parcel and a portion of the back of the mall are being redeveloped.

The Village at Orange mall is getting 167 new condos. This is exactly what Orange County has been doing.

If you've been watching Orange County housing news, you've probably noticed a pattern. Golf courses are being proposed for housing. Public courses are losing land to development. And now, dead anchor stores at aging malls are coming down to make way for condos. The Village at Orange is the latest chapter in that story.

This isn't just about a JCPenney getting torn down. It's about what kind of housing OC is actually able to build in 2026, and where it's putting it.

What's Actually Being Built

The project, by the numbers:

  • Location: 1500 E Village Way, Orange, CA, on the former JCPenney parcel at The Village at Orange mall
  • Site: Roughly 80,000 sq ft former JCPenney building, vacant for years
  • Units: 167 two- and three-story townhome-style condominiums
  • Type: For-sale homes, not rentals
  • Target buyers: First-time buyers, young families, downsizers
  • Developer: Integral Communities (Newport Beach)
  • Homebuilder: Lennar Homes
  • Landowner: TRC Retail (mall owner)
  • Amenities: Community pool, children's play area, bocce ball court, lounge and gathering spaces
  • Demolition started: April 24, 2025

For-Sale or Rental?

For sale. All 167 units are designed as townhome-style condominiums for ownership, not apartments for rent. The product is squarely aimed at first-time buyers who have been priced out of the OC detached-home market, along with downsizers and young families who want low-maintenance ownership in an established neighborhood.

What It Will Cost

Lennar has not released pricing yet. Pre-sales typically open 12 to 18 months before move-in, so detailed pricing will come once the project clears its remaining approvals and Lennar opens a sales office. For context, new-construction townhome condos in OC aimed at the same buyer profile in 2026 generally run between $700,000 and $1.1 million, with three-bedroom and end-unit plans often pricing higher. Expect the Village at Orange units to land somewhere in that range. You can browse current condos and townhomes for sale across Orange County to see how today's resale and new-construction inventory is priced in comparable communities.

The Status of the Approval

Demolition is happening, but that does not mean the project is fully approved. The residential phase still has to clear entitlements and environmental review. The City of Orange is hosting community engagement sessions, and some neighbors have raised concerns about added traffic and density on a parcel that has long been a single-use shopping destination.

A site doesn't get to "shovels in the ground" just because the old building comes down. The harder fight is usually after demolition, when the city is deciding exactly what gets to go in its place.

This Is Part of a Bigger Pattern

Orange County's malls have been quietly transforming for years. Online shopping, the decline of department-store anchors, and California's housing mandates have combined to make underused mall acreage one of the only viable infill development sites large enough to absorb meaningful unit counts. Several OC malls are now in some stage of housing conversion:

OC malls being reimagined as housing:

  • The Village at Orange (Orange). 167 new condominiums on the former JCPenney site.
  • Westminster Mall (Westminster). Plan calling for more than 1,100 new homes plus retail and open space.
  • Laguna Hills Mall (Laguna Hills). Rebranded as Five Lagunas. Mixed-use redevelopment with residential and retail underway.
  • MainPlace Mall (Santa Ana). Long-term mixed-use redevelopment plan including residential.

The pattern is consistent: retail square footage is shrinking, residential square footage is rising, and the parcels with the easiest path to entitlement are the ones that already have parking, road access, and infrastructure in place.

Why This Matters for Orange

The City of Orange does not see many new housing developments, especially near its established residential and commercial cores. The historic Old Towne, Chapman University, and the surrounding established neighborhoods limit where new construction can practically go. That's exactly why a parcel like the Village at Orange site is so attractive to developers: it's already commercially zoned, already serviced by major roads and utilities, and already part of a community that's used to a steady flow of cars and visitors.

For local buyers, especially first-time buyers and downsizers, that matters. New-construction homes inside the City of Orange are rare. A 167-unit project in a walkable, established area is the kind of inventory that doesn't usually become available outside of the master-planned south-county communities like Rancho Mission Viejo.

My Take, from a Real Estate Perspective

I think this project is good for the market, with some caveats.

On the positive side: OC needs new for-sale housing aimed at first-time buyers, and there isn't much of it being built. 167 townhome-style condos in a walkable infill location in central OC is exactly the type of product that gives a young family or a downsizer a real shot at ownership without leaving the area. That's a win.

The caveats are about execution. Townhome condo projects live and die on design quality, parking ratios, and HOA structure. A well-designed project at this price point will sell out and hold value for decades. A poorly designed one becomes the kind of community that ends up with deferred maintenance, HOA disputes, and resale challenges within ten years. Integral Communities and Lennar both have strong track records, but the final design that comes out of the city review process is what will determine which path this one follows.

The other caveat is the broader mall question. The Village at Orange is not closing. The remaining retail tenants stay. But the long-term direction of retail at the mall is uncertain, and buyers in the new condos need to factor in what their immediate surroundings will look like in five, ten, and twenty years. A vibrant mixed-use anchor next door is an asset. A continuously shrinking mall next door is a different value proposition.

Mall-to-housing conversions work best when the mall doesn't fully die. They become a problem when the new homes are surrounded by empty retail that nobody is willing to refresh.

What This Means for Buyers and Investors

  • If you're a first-time buyer in central OC, this is a project to put on your watch list. Sign up for Lennar's interest list early. Townhome projects from major builders often have priority access for buyers who registered first. While you wait for pre-sales to open, see what's currently available with our live listings of condos and townhomes for sale in Orange.
  • If you live in the surrounding neighborhoods, stay engaged with the City of Orange's community sessions. The final unit count, parking ratios, and circulation plan are still being shaped, and resident input genuinely affects those decisions.
  • If you own a home nearby, the long-term impact on your property value depends on how well the project integrates with the surrounding area and what happens to the remainder of the mall. Well-executed infill generally lifts adjacent home values. Poorly executed infill is more mixed.
  • If you're an investor, remember that townhome condos in Orange County are governed by their HOA structure and CC&Rs. Read those documents carefully before buying. Some condo HOAs restrict rentals, which materially changes the investment thesis.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the Village at Orange mall being demolished?

Not entirely. The mall itself is staying, but the former JCPenney building, which has been vacant for years, is being demolished. The 167 new condominiums will be built on the JCPenney parcel. Much of the back half of the mall was also demolished in early 2024. The remaining tenants and the main mall structure are not being torn down.

Are the new homes condos for sale or apartments for rent?

For sale. The 167 units are townhome-style condominiums developed by Integral Communities and built by Lennar Homes. They are designed for first-time buyers, young families, and downsizers looking for low-maintenance ownership in an established part of Orange. These are not rentals.

How much will the condos at the Village at Orange cost?

Pricing has not been officially released. New construction townhome condos in Orange County aimed at first-time buyers, families, and downsizers in 2026 typically price in the $700,000 to $1.1 million range, with three-bedroom and end-unit plans often higher. Expect Lennar to release official pricing during pre-sales, generally 12 to 18 months before move-in.

When will the condos be built and ready to move in?

Demolition of the JCPenney building began in April 2025. The project still has to clear entitlements and environmental review before construction starts. Realistic move-in dates depend on how quickly the city's review process moves, but most townhome-style condo projects of this size take roughly two to three years from groundbreaking to first occupancy.

Has the project been approved by the City of Orange?

Not fully. Demolition is underway, but the residential project still has to clear entitlements and environmental review. The City of Orange is hosting community engagement sessions, and traffic and density concerns from neighbors are part of the ongoing public conversation. Final approval rests with the City.

Other OC Development Stories in This Series

  1. Costa Mesa Country Club May Lose Holes to Fairview Housing Project. Here's Why.
  2. Oak Creek Golf Club May Be Replaced by 3,100 New Homes. What's Next for Irvine?
  3. Newport Beach Golf Course, Surf Park, and Housing: The Airport Area Transformation.
  4. How Mile Square Golf Course Went From 36 Holes to 18.
  5. The Marisol: Huntington Beach's New $252M Senior Community.

Explore Condos, Townhomes, and Homes for Sale in Orange and Nearby Cities

  1. Orange: Condos and Townhomes for Sale
  2. Orange County: All Condos and Townhomes for Sale
  3. Orange: All Homes for Sale in Orange, CA
  4. Anaheim: Homes for Sale in Anaheim, CA
  5. Tustin: Homes for Sale in Tustin, CA
  6. Santa Ana: Homes for Sale in Santa Ana, CA
  7. Villa Park: Homes for Sale in Villa Park, CA

The Bigger Question

Orange County is not running out of land. It's running out of land where the city, the state, and the surrounding neighborhood will all agree to put new housing. The Village at Orange site has the rare advantage of being commercial land that nobody is using for what it was built for. That makes it a relatively easy candidate for redevelopment. The harder question is what happens at the dozens of other mall and retail sites across OC that aren't this clean a case. Some will follow this path. Some will sit empty for years. The ones that thread the needle will be the ones that match the right product to the right buyer at the right price, with a city willing to approve the plan.

Posted in Real Estate News
May 24, 2026

The Marisol: Huntington Beach's New $252M Senior Community and the Silver Tsunami Heading for Orange County

By Eric Engelbert

Update: May 2026. The Marisol, a planned 214-unit senior care community on Main Street in Huntington Beach, secured $252.1 million in construction financing through the California Public Finance Authority. The project is scheduled to open in 2028. It is not a for-sale 55+ active adult community. It is assisted living and memory care, a fundamentally different product.

A $252 million senior care community is coming to Huntington Beach. Here's what it actually is.

A lot of people in Huntington Beach saw the headline about a new "senior community" getting funded and assumed it meant another for-sale 55-plus neighborhood. That's not what The Marisol is. The product matters, because what's getting built has a lot to say about which seniors Orange County is currently building for and which ones it isn't.

What The Marisol Will Be

The Marisol, by the numbers:

  • Address: 2120 Main Street, Huntington Beach
  • Site: 7 acres within the 11-acre Seacliff Office Park, replacing a former office building
  • Building: Three stories, roughly 281,000 sq ft
  • Units: 214 one- and two-bedroom units
  • Use: Assisted living and memory care
  • Operator: Momentum Senior Living
  • Developer: Bloom Family Foundation with Development Management Associates
  • Financing: $252.1 million from the California Public Finance Authority
  • Delivery: 2028
  • Amenities: Wellness center, art studio, movie theater, golf simulator, multiple dining venues, pet-friendly and wheelchair-accessible design

For-Sale or Care Facility?

This is the part that surprises most people. The Marisol is a care facility, not a for-sale community. Residents will not buy a unit. They will pay a monthly fee that covers their apartment, meals, housekeeping, and care services. That's the standard model for assisted living and memory care.

The difference matters for how you think about who lives there:

  • Assisted living serves seniors who need help with day-to-day activities like bathing, dressing, or medication management. Most residents are in their 80s.
  • Memory care is a secured, specialized environment for residents with Alzheimer's or other forms of dementia. Higher staffing, higher monthly costs.
  • Neither one is age-restricted to 55-plus. A 55-plus community, by contrast, is age-qualified housing where residents own or rent their homes and live independently.

Pricing for The Marisol has not been released. Pre-leasing typically opens 6 to 12 months before opening, so expect more details closer to 2028. For context, comparable new-construction assisted living and memory care in coastal Orange County in 2026 generally runs $7,000 to $10,000 per month for assisted living and $11,000 or more per month for memory care. With the amenity package The Marisol is advertising, expect it to land at the upper end of those ranges.

The Silver Tsunami Is Real, and the Numbers Tell the Story

The senior housing industry has talked about the "silver tsunami" for a decade. It's the demographic wave of baby boomers aging into the years when assisted living, memory care, and continuing care become relevant. The oldest boomers turn 80 in 2026. The youngest turn 80 in 2044. That's nearly two decades of escalating demand.

The supply side is moving in the opposite direction.

U.S. senior housing under construction:

  • 2019 peak: nearly 50,000 units under construction nationwide
  • 2026: fewer than 16,500 units under construction
  • Trend: construction has declined for 17 consecutive quarters

Source: NIC MAP data cited by Multi-Housing News, May 2026.

That's the structural picture. Demand is climbing. Supply is shrinking. Occupancy rates are rising. Projects like The Marisol are the exception, not the trend. Most operators have pulled back because rising construction costs and labor shortages make new builds harder to pencil. The deals that do close, like the one The Marisol just secured, are getting bigger and more amenity-heavy, which is great for the people who can afford them and less great for everyone else.

Which Brings Us to Affordable Senior Housing

If you read the headlines, you'd think every new senior project in Orange County is luxury assisted living. The reality is that the segment with the deepest unmet demand is the opposite end of the market. Seniors living on Social Security plus a modest pension are getting squeezed by the same rent inflation that affects everyone else, with one critical difference: they're usually on a fixed income and they can't go back to work.

The median Social Security benefit for retired workers in 2026 is roughly $2,000 per month. The median rent for a one-bedroom apartment in Orange County is well above that figure. The arithmetic doesn't work, and it's why income-restricted senior apartments have multi-year waitlists across the county. HUD Section 202 senior housing, Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) senior projects, and senior-targeted Section 8 vouchers are the primary tools, and there isn't nearly enough of any of them.

A $252 million project that serves 214 luxury assisted-living residents is a real and necessary product. But it is not a substitute for the much harder-to-finance work of building affordable senior housing for the residents whose pension didn't keep up.

Orange County's Spectrum of Senior Communities

Most people don't realize how broad the senior housing market in Orange County actually is. There's a community type for almost every situation, and the price ranges span an enormous spread.

The four main categories, with examples:

  1. For-sale 55-plus active adult communities. You own your home. You live independently. The HOA enforces age restrictions.
  2. Continuing Care Retirement Communities (CCRCs). Independent living plus assisted living plus skilled nursing, all on one campus, often with a large entrance fee plus monthly rent.
  3. Assisted living and memory care. Monthly rent plus services for residents who need help with daily activities. The Marisol fits here.
  4. Affordable senior housing. Income-restricted apartments funded through HUD, LIHTC, and similar programs. Long waitlists.

For-Sale 55-Plus Active Adult Communities

If you want to own your home and live among other adults 55 and older, this is the category. Pricing in OC ranges from low-$300,000s for older mobile home park spaces to well over $1.5 million for newer detached homes in master-planned communities. Some of the better-known options:

  • Laguna Woods Village (Laguna Woods). The largest 55-plus community in Orange County, with more than 12,000 homes spread across condos, co-ops, and single-family units. Originally built as Leisure World. Wide range of price points, from mid-$200,000s through $1.5 million plus.
  • Huntington Landmark (Huntington Beach). A 1,200-home 55-plus community with a clubhouse, pools, and tennis. Typical pricing in the high $600,000s to low $900,000s.
  • Casta Del Sol and Palmia (Mission Viejo). Two of the larger 55-plus communities in south OC. Single-family and attached homes generally in the $700,000s to $1.2 million range.
  • Gavilan at Rancho Mission Viejo. The newest 55-plus product in OC, with new construction homes in a master-planned community setting. Pricing generally in the $900,000s to $1.5 million-plus range.
  • Mobile home and manufactured home senior parks (Huntington Beach, Costa Mesa, others). Communities like Huntington By the Sea, Skandia Mobile Country Club, and Crystal Cay offer some of the most affordable senior ownership in the county, often in the $200,000s to $500,000s depending on location and condition.

See our complete guide to 55-plus communities in Huntington Beach.

Continuing Care Retirement Communities (CCRCs)

CCRCs are designed so that a resident can move in while fully independent and stay through the assisted living and even skilled nursing stages of life without changing addresses. They usually require a substantial entrance fee plus monthly service charges. In OC, established examples include Walnut Village in Anaheim, The Covington in Aliso Viejo, and Vivante in Costa Mesa. Entrance fees can range from the low six figures into the millions, with monthly fees typically $4,000 to $8,000.

Assisted Living and Memory Care

This is the category The Marisol joins. Existing OC operators include Sunrise, Belmont Village, Atria, Carmel Village, and many smaller boutique operators. Monthly pricing in 2026 generally ranges $5,500 to $9,500 for assisted living and $8,500 to $13,000 plus for memory care, with significant variation based on care level and amenities.

Affordable Senior Housing

The hardest category to find, and the one with the deepest waitlists. Examples include income-restricted senior apartment communities operated by nonprofits like Jamboree Housing and National Community Renaissance, as well as HUD Section 202 properties scattered throughout the county. Eligibility is generally tied to income limits set as a percentage of Area Median Income (AMI). Rents are typically capped at 30% of household income, which is the only way the math works for seniors living on fixed benefits.

My Take, From an Orange County Real Estate Perspective

The Marisol is a great project for the residents and families it will serve. The amenities sound excellent, the location is solid, and at a time when most operators are pulling back, the fact that this deal got financed is a sign of how strong the underlying demand really is. Huntington Beach gets a high-quality care community on a site that needed redevelopment anyway. That's a win.

But it's only part of the story. Orange County is aging fast, and the housing types we're building don't match the income distribution of the seniors who already live here. A two-bedroom assisted living unit at $9,000 a month is a real product for a real customer. So is a $400,000 mobile home in a senior park where lot rent runs another $1,200 a month. So is a $250,000 condo at Laguna Woods Village. The county needs all of it, and it needs more of the lower end of the spectrum than developers are currently incentivized to build.

A well-functioning senior housing market isn't one product at one price point. It's a ladder. The Marisol adds rungs at the top. The harder question is who is building the rungs in the middle and at the bottom.

What This Means If You Or A Family Member Is Planning Ahead

A few things worth thinking about while you have time:

  • Don't wait until a health event to look at options. The communities with the best fit usually have waitlists. Touring early, even years early, gives you better choices.
  • Understand the four categories. Independent for-sale 55-plus, CCRCs, assisted living and memory care, and affordable senior apartments are very different products with very different costs and qualifications.
  • Plan for the move in stages. Many residents transition from a single-family home into a 55-plus condo, then later into a CCRC or assisted living. Each stage involves a real estate decision.
  • Look at total cost of ownership, not just price. Mobile home parks often have monthly lot rent. CCRCs have entrance fees. Condos in 55-plus communities have HOAs that can be substantial. The sticker price is rarely the full picture.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the difference between The Marisol and a 55+ community?

The Marisol is assisted living and memory care. Residents rent a unit and pay a monthly fee that includes meals, housekeeping, and care services. A 55+ community is age-qualified housing where residents typically own their home and live independently with no care services included. Different products, different pricing models, different residents. Most assisted living residents are in their 80s. Most 55+ community residents are in their 60s and 70s.

What are the best alternatives to assisted living?

The best alternative depends on what level of help is actually needed. A few of the most common paths:

  • In-home care. Caregivers come to the resident's existing home. Often cheaper and less disruptive when only a few hours of daily support are required.
  • Adult day programs. Structured daytime activities and supervision while the resident continues to live at home.
  • Independent living in a 55+ community or CCRC. Works well for seniors who don't yet need hands-on help but want a community environment with built-in social connections.
  • Multi-generational living. Increasingly common in Orange County, often supported by adding an ADU to an adult child's property.
  • Aging in place with home modifications. Walk-in showers, grab bars, ramps, and stair lifts can extend the years a senior safely stays in their existing home.

Are there single family detached homes in 55+ communities in Orange County?

Yes. Several Orange County 55+ communities offer detached single family homes:

  • Laguna Woods Village (Laguna Woods). Detached single family options alongside its co-op and condo inventory.
  • Brookhaven (Brea). Detached homes in a smaller 55+ setting.
  • Palmia (Mission Viejo). Detached single family homes with HOA-managed amenities.
  • Gavilan at Rancho Mission Viejo. Newer construction detached homes in a master-planned community.
  • San Juan Capistrano 55+ neighborhoods. Detached homes in several smaller communities.

Pricing varies widely by community, age of the home, lot size, and location, generally ranging from the $700,000s to well above $1.5 million.

How much does assisted living typically cost in Orange County?

Assisted living in Orange County in 2026 generally runs between $5,500 and $9,500 per month for a one-bedroom unit, with two-bedroom and care-level surcharges pushing some communities above $11,000 per month. Memory care typically starts higher, often $8,500 to $13,000 or more per month, because of the increased staffing and secured environment. Newer construction with high-end amenity packages, like The Marisol, tends to land at the upper end of these ranges.

When will The Marisol open?

The Marisol is scheduled for delivery in 2028. Pre-leasing for assisted living and memory care communities typically opens 6 to 12 months before doors open, so detailed pricing and availability information should become public sometime in 2027.

Explore Senior and Family Homes in Huntington Beach and Nearby Cities

  1. Huntington Beach: 55+ Communities and Senior Homes
  2. Orange County 55+ Communities
  3. Huntington Beach: All Homes for Sale
  4. Costa Mesa: Homes for Sale
  5. Newport Beach: Homes for Sale
  6. Fountain Valley: Homes for Sale

The Bigger Question

Orange County is one of the most desirable places in the country to age, and it's about to be tested. The boomers who built this county are entering the stage of life where they need housing types that the market hasn't been building enough of. The Marisol is a strong addition at the high end. The bigger question is whether the rest of the ladder gets built fast enough to meet what's coming.

Posted in Real Estate News
May 20, 2026

How Mile Square Golf Course Went From 36 Holes to 18, and What It Means for OC's Other Public Courses

By Eric Engelbert

Quick context. In July 2021, Mile Square Golf Course in Fountain Valley went from 36 holes to 18. Most golfers I talk to think back property taxes were the reason. They weren't. The real story is a $3.6 million back-rent dispute on county-owned land, and it's a useful lesson in how easily a public golf course can lose ground when the land underneath it belongs to someone else.

The third Orange County golf course story in three years. This one is different.

I've been writing about Orange County golf course losses for a while now. Oak Creek in Irvine is being proposed for 3,100 new homes. Newport Beach Golf Course is losing land to a surf park. Costa Mesa Country Club may lose holes to a road for the Fairview housing project. Each of those is driven by some flavor of development pressure.

Mile Square is different. There was no housing project. No surf park. No state housing mandate. The course shrank because the operator and the landowner couldn't agree on what was owed in rent, and the deal they cut to settle it cost the public 93 acres of golf.

What Mile Square Actually Was

Mile Square Regional Park is a 607-acre county-owned park sitting between Fountain Valley, Santa Ana, and Westminster. Inside it were three 18-hole golf courses. Two of them, the Classic Course (opened 1969) and the Players Course (added in 1999), were operated by a single partnership, Mile Square Golf Course LLC. The third 18-hole course at the park is operated separately and was not affected by what follows.

For more than 50 years, that partnership ran a 36-hole public facility on county land, paying rent under a long-term lease. Then came the 2017 audit.

The 2017 Audit and the $3.6 Million Number

The dispute, in plain numbers:

  • $3.6 million. Amount the county said the operator had underpaid in rent over several years, based on a routine audit.
  • The operator disputed it. An outside consultant they hired said the rent had been correctly calculated.
  • The county owned the land. That's the part everyone forgot.

This is the part that surprises most people. The audit didn't allege fraud or anything close to it. It was a disagreement about how the rent formula in the lease should be applied. But because the county owned the land and the operator did not, the conversation about who was right became a conversation about what happens next.

The Settlement

Rather than litigate the underpayment, the county and the operator restructured the deal:

  1. The operator returned 93 acres to Orange County.
  2. The 36-hole facility was consolidated to a single 18-hole course. The Players Course closed in July 2021, and some Classic Course holes were also reshuffled. The old Players #1 was reversed and woven into the consolidated routing.
  3. In exchange, the operator got a lower, sustainable rent, more in line with what other county golf concessionaires were paying.
  4. The operator also folded in upgrades: 90 new carts, redone driving range irrigation, refurbished banquet facilities, and a new wedding garden.
  5. Green fees were not raised.

The piece worth remembering: the operator kept the price the same for the players. The cost of the settlement was paid in acreage, not in green fees.

What the 93 Acres Are Becoming

The county didn't take the land back to sell it or develop housing. The master plan, championed at the time by then-Supervisor Andrew Do, repurposed the 93 acres for public recreation in some of the lower-income neighborhoods the park serves. Planned uses include walking trails, a grassy meadow with amphitheater, a nature camp for kids, botanical gardens, a visitor center, picnic and group camping areas, and a raised boardwalk over a wetland pond.

That's a meaningfully different outcome from Oak Creek or Newport Beach. Those courses are losing land to development. Mile Square lost land to expanded public park use.

The Political Side Worth Knowing

The plan was approved at the July 13, 2021 Board of Supervisors meeting. Supervisor Katrina Foley, whose district borders the park, asked county staff to present the master plan publicly during the meeting. Board Chairman Andrew Do cut her off and asked the public to refer to the project document, which was attached as page 1,355 of the meeting's agenda packet. The plan was approved without a full presentation.

Fountain Valley Councilman Glenn Grandis later said the county's outreach (two public input meetings in 2019, plus surveys at park events) was "one-directional." Foley called the supervisors' decision to skip a public walk-through of a multi-million-dollar park plan "outrageous."

If that sounds familiar, it should. The same pattern, where the public is told a plan exists but never quite shown what's in it, is happening right now around the Costa Mesa Country Club and the Fairview Developmental Center plan.

Why This Matters for Other OC Courses

The Mile Square story isn't really about one golf course. It's about a structural reality most public-golf players never think about: a lot of Orange County golf is played on land that the operator doesn't own.

That doesn't make the courses unstable in any everyday sense. They're well run, packed with players, and generating real revenue. But it means the underlying lease, and the relationship between the operator and the landowner, is the thing that determines whether a course stays a course.

Orange County Golf Courses on Leased Land

A non-exhaustive list of OC courses where the land is leased or publicly owned:

  • Mile Square Golf Course (Fountain Valley). County-owned land, operated under lease by Mile Square Golf Course LLC. Consolidated from 36 to 18 holes in 2021.
  • Costa Mesa Country Club / Costa Mesa Municipal Golf Course (Costa Mesa). City-owned, operated under concession. Currently at the center of the Fairview Developmental Center fight.
  • Newport Beach Golf Course (Newport Beach). Sits on John Wayne Airport land, which is county-owned. The lease for the land expires in 2027. The course is privately operated.
  • The Huntington Club, formerly Seacliff Country Club (Huntington Beach). Private country club operating on leased land. New ownership has been reinvesting in the course in recent years.

There are likely others. If you operate or play a course in OC where the land underneath you is leased, that lease is the document that decides what the next twenty years look like. Most golfers never read it. Most lease decisions are made without them in the room.

The Real Lesson

When a course gets shut down or shrunk, the headline almost always points at the developer or the city council. The Mile Square story shows the quieter version. A back-of-house disagreement about a rent calculation can do the same thing a developer can. It just doesn't make the front page.

If the land is leased, the lease wins. Every time. The strongest protection a public course has isn't the loyalty of its players. It's a long, well-structured lease with a fair rent calculation that holds up under audit.

My Take, From a Scratch Handicap

I played both Classic and Players at Mile Square before the consolidation. The Players course had its quirks, but losing it was a real loss for working players in the area. What kept Mile Square worth caring about was the same thing that keeps Costa Mesa Country Club worth caring about: access and price. A regular person could play a regulation course there without spending a private-club budget. That doesn't exist in most of California anymore.

The piece of the Mile Square outcome that gets less attention than it deserves is that the operator held green fees flat through the settlement. They could have used the new, lower rent as an excuse to upgrade pricing. They didn't. That's the model. When public courses change shape, the green fee for the average player has to be the one number that stays the same.

A public golf course that becomes unaffordable hasn't been saved. It's been replaced with a nicer one most people who used it can no longer play.

What This Means for Costa Mesa Real Estate

If you live near, or are buying near, any of the OC courses on leased land, the lease structure is part of your due diligence whether you realize it or not. A few things worth thinking through:

  • Golf-adjacent home premiums are real, but they're tied to the amenity remaining intact. A course that's been consolidated or downsized changes the value proposition for nearby homes.
  • Renewal dates matter. The Newport Beach Golf Course lease expires in 2027. That's a date worth knowing if you live in a community whose value depends on that course.
  • Operator changes are signals. A new operator on an existing lease often means new economics, which often means changes to layout, amenities, or pricing.
  • "Publicly owned" does not mean "permanent." Mile Square is the cleanest example of that in OC.

Other OC Golf-Course Stories in This Series

  1. Costa Mesa Country Club May Lose Holes to Fairview Housing Project. Here's Why.
  2. Oak Creek Golf Club May Be Replaced by 3,100 New Homes. What's Next for Irvine?
  3. Newport Beach Golf Course, Surf Park, and Housing: The Airport Area Transformation.

Explore Homes for Sale Near Mile Square and Other OC Courses

  1. Fountain Valley: Homes for Sale in Fountain Valley
  2. Costa Mesa: Homes for Sale in Costa Mesa
  3. Huntington Beach: Homes for Sale in Huntington Beach
  4. Newport Beach: Homes for Sale in Newport Beach
  5. Irvine: Homes for Sale in Irvine

The Bigger Question

Orange County still has some of the best, busiest, most affordable public golf in California. The Mile Square outcome shows that the threat to those courses isn't always a developer with a 3,000-home master plan. Sometimes it's a routine audit and a clause in a lease. If you care about keeping public golf in OC the way it is, the place to pay attention isn't only the city council. It's the renewal calendar on every long-term lease in the county.

Posted in Real Estate News
May 20, 2026

Costa Mesa Country Club May Lose Holes to Fairview Housing Project | Here's Why

By Eric Engelbert

Update: May 2026. The City of Costa Mesa has released the Draft Fairview Developmental Center (FDC) Specific Plan and Draft Environmental Impact Report. Public comments closed April 15, 2026. The Plan is not yet approved. It still has to clear Planning Commission and City Council, with a final document expected in late 2026. A Master Developer has not yet been selected. The State is still accepting bids.

The next big Orange County golf-course fight isn't about losing a course. It's about a road across one.

I've written about Newport Beach Golf Course and the proposed wave pool. I've written about Oak Creek Golf Club becoming 3,100 new homes. Both of those stories follow the same pattern: a developer wants the land, the golfers want their course, and the city tries to thread the needle.

The Fairview Developmental Center fight in Costa Mesa is different. The course itself isn't being sold. The land isn't even owned by the same entity. And the law that's driving the whole thing isn't really about housing. It's about how little say a city actually has once the state gets involved.

What's Actually Being Proposed

The Fairview Developmental Center sits on Harbor Boulevard, almost completely surrounded by the Costa Mesa Municipal Golf Course, the public Costa Mesa Country Club, home to both the Los Lagos and Mesa Linda layouts. The FDC site is state-owned, about 100 acres, and slated to be sold or long-term-leased to a Master Developer.

What the Draft Specific Plan contemplates:

  • 2,300 to 4,000+ residential units
  • About 35,000 sq ft of retail/commercial
  • Population of 5,744 to 10,232 residents at full build-out
  • 18 to 20 years of cleanup and construction
  • A tower at the western edge that could reach up to 18 stories

The state's plan has the developer paying roughly $1 for the land in exchange for taking on environmental remediation of the old developmental center. The financials don't pencil out until around 3,500 units. Less density, no deal.

The Golf Course Is in the Crossfire, Literally

Here's the part that has Costa Mesa golfers up in arms. If unit counts grow past certain thresholds, and under California's State Density Bonus Law they almost certainly will, the project triggers a need for a second access road. The only practical route for that road cuts directly across active holes on the municipal course.

From a scratch handicap, the issues are obvious:

  • 2 to 5 holes get re-routed at minimum.
  • Without serious screening, you've got shattered windshields on the new road.
  • The Draft Plan says hole relocation is "the developer's responsibility," but it does not require the redesign to be done to the City's satisfaction, and it doesn't tie the work to a binding development agreement.
  • Translation: nothing in the document forces the developer to pay for a good redesign. The cheapest fix that fits on paper is legally fine.

Why This Fight Is Different: It's Really About State Housing Law

At Oak Creek, the Irvine Company owns the land and wants to redevelop it. The City Council has real leverage. At Newport Beach, the airport-area parcel is also privately owned. The city negotiates from a position of authority.

At Fairview, Costa Mesa has almost none of that leverage. Here's why.

The land is state-owned. The City of Costa Mesa has the right to review the deal between the State and the developer. It doesn't have the right to approve it. The Specific Plan is the city's one real tool, and even that gets weakened by what comes next.

State Density Bonus Law overrides local zoning. Once a developer dedicates a meaningful percentage of units to affordable housing, the state allows them to exceed local density limits and claim up to five "concessions," things like increased height, reduced setbacks, and reduced parking. The 2,300-unit count in the Housing Element is a floor, not a ceiling. A developer can legally push that number well above 3,500, and that pushes traffic above the threshold where a second access road becomes mandatory.

Costa Mesa is under state housing mandate pressure. The city's 6th Cycle Housing Element targets more than 17,000 new units citywide. The FDC site is the single largest housing opportunity parcel the city has. Block this one and the state's enforcement options get a lot more interesting.

This is why politicians look like they're dismissing golfer concerns. From a council seat, blocking the road to save a handful of holes can look like vetoing the entire project. And once the project is dead, the state can step in and force something worse. They're not being indifferent. They're playing a board where most of their pieces have already been taken off.

Is This a Done Deal?

Not yet. The Draft Specific Plan is out for review. The Draft EIR will trigger a 45-day public comment period. After that comes Planning Commission, then City Council. A Master Developer hasn't even been selected. The State is still taking bids. Final Plan adoption is expected in late 2026.

What's Already Happened and What's Still Ahead

The public input phase wrapped up this spring. The final round of community workshops ran in late March 2026:

  • A workshop at the Costa Mesa Municipal Golf Course drew around 50 attendees, almost all golfers. Councilmembers Buley, Marr, and Reynolds, along with Planning Commissioner Zich, were there to watch.
  • A second workshop at the Senior Center was sparsely attended.
  • The final session was held virtually on Zoom.
  • Public comments on the Draft Specific Plan closed April 15, 2026.

Former Vice Mayor Jay Humphrey publicly called for a true town hall during the golf course meeting. Staff said no. About ten residents made it clear they disagreed, and that frustration with the format has not gone away.

What still has to happen before anything is approved:

  1. City staff revises the Specific Plan based on the public comments received.
  2. The Final Environmental Impact Report is released, triggering a 45-day public review period.
  3. Planning Commission hearings and a recommendation.
  4. City Council final consideration and adoption, expected in late 2026.
  5. The State selects a Master Developer (bids are still being accepted).

If you want a say in how Costa Mesa Country Club survives this, the Planning Commission and City Council hearings later this year are where it has to happen.

My Opinion: If the Course Loses, Here's What I'd Fight For

I'll be honest. I think there's a strong chance some version of this development happens, and a real chance the road across the golf course goes with it. The state's leverage is real, the financials only work at higher density, and the city's options are narrower than most residents realize.

So if we accept that some of the course is going to change, my proposal, and what I'd be pushing the City to extract from the Master Developer as a community benefit, looks like this:

A redesign worth losing holes over. Paid for by the developer.

  1. Build a short par-3/par-4 course playable in about two hours. Use the affected acreage to create something genuinely useful: a place beginners, juniors, working parents, and seniors can actually finish a round on a weekday evening.
  2. Lengthen and improve the remaining championship course to a true 7,500 yards. Bring it up to modern tournament standards. Costa Mesa deserves a course that holds up to today's distances.
  3. Keep the practice facility intact and modernized. The driving range is one of the most-used in Orange County. Lights, mats, target greens. All of it should be preserved and upgraded, not shrunk.
  4. Hold green fees flat. Written into the development agreement. No carve-outs. No "subject to operating costs" loopholes. The community gives up holes; the community keeps the prices.

Why Affordability Has to Be Non-Negotiable

The thing that makes Costa Mesa Country Club worth fighting for isn't the prestige. It's the access. This is one of the few places left in coastal Orange County where someone earning a regular paycheck can play a real 18-hole course, hit balls on a championship-grade range, and get instruction from a teaching pro, without remortgaging the house.

People come here from all over Orange County. The weather is great. The price is right. The range is busy seven days a week. Juniors learn here. Retirees walk loops here. Working adults sneak in nine holes after work. Coaches and instructors build careers here.

If the redesign that comes out of this development raises green fees, we haven't preserved a public golf course. We've replaced an affordable one with a nicer one most of the people who use it today can't afford.

That isn't a win. That's the loss everyone says they're trying to prevent.

What This Means for Costa Mesa Real Estate

Whether you like the project or not, the Fairview plan is going to shape the local market for years:

  • Inventory: Even on the low end, 2,300 new units changes the supply picture in central Costa Mesa.
  • Affordability mix: A meaningful share is required to be income-restricted, but the market-rate units will likely price to the West-of-405 / Mesa Verde area.
  • Adjacent home values: Homes facing the golf course remain a premium product, if the course remains a functioning amenity. A degraded or fee-hiked course erodes that premium.
  • Traffic and quality of life: Build-out spans 18–20 years. That's two decades of construction impact on Harbor, Fair Drive, and the OC Fair corridor.

The Bigger Question

Can a city under state housing pressure protect the public amenities that already define it? Costa Mesa is about to find out. Costa Mesa Country Club isn't a private club hiding behind a gate. It's a working, busy, affordable, community course that genuinely serves the people who live here. That's worth a fight, not to stop the housing, but to make sure the price of building it isn't paid by the residents who use the course most.

Explore Homes for Sale Near Costa Mesa Country Club

If you're considering a move in the area, especially before the Fairview plan moves toward final approval, explore current listings in Costa Mesa and the surrounding cities most likely to feel the ripple effects:

  1. Costa Mesa: Homes for Sale in Costa Mesa
  2. Newport Beach: Homes for Sale in Newport Beach
  3. Irvine: Homes for Sale in Irvine
  4. Santa Ana: Homes for Sale in Santa Ana

Other OC Golf-Course Development Stories We've Covered

  1. Oak Creek Golf Club may become 3,100 new homes: what's next for Irvine?
  2. Newport Beach Golf Course, surf park, and housing: the airport area transformation

How to Stay Involved

The Draft Specific Plan and Draft Environmental Impact Report are available for public review at fdcplan.com. The Draft EIR will open a 45-day public comment period, then move to Planning Commission, and finally to City Council for adoption. If you want a say in how Costa Mesa Country Club survives this, those hearings are where it has to happen.

The course isn't going away tomorrow. But the document that decides what it looks like a decade from now is being written right now.

Posted in Real Estate News
May 11, 2026

5 Reasons You Might Need a Broker Opinion of Value (Beyond Just Selling Your Home)

Seller Education • Estate Planning

5 Reasons You Might Need a Broker Opinion of Value (Beyond Just Selling Your Home)

A real Mission Viejo case study and five common scenarios where a written, defensible value opinion is the right tool for the job.

By Eric Engelbert May 11, 2026 7 min read

A Recent Case in Mission Viejo

Earlier this year, the family of a longtime North Mission Viejo homeowner reached out with a difficult task. Their father had passed away in December 2025, leaving behind the family home in the Montiel tract, a two-story 1970s build on an elevated lot with a view of the Saddleback Mountains. Their mother was still living there, and the family needed something specific from me: a written, professionally documented opinion of what the home was worth on the date their father passed away.

They were not selling. They were not refinancing. They were trying to settle their father's estate properly with the help of a CPA and an estate attorney, and they needed a Broker Opinion of Value (BOV) for tax reporting purposes.

This is one of the most common, and most important, uses of a BOV that homeowners do not think about until they are in the middle of it.

What Is a Broker Opinion of Value?

A Broker Opinion of Value is a written assessment of a property's fair market value, prepared by a licensed real estate broker, based on a physical inspection of the property and analysis of recent comparable sales.

Important Distinction

It is not an appraisal. Appraisals are prepared by state-licensed appraisers under USPAP and are typically required for lender-financed transactions. A BOV is faster, more accessible, and well-suited to situations where a formal appraisal is not required but a defensible, supported value opinion is needed.

It is also not a Zillow Zestimate, Redfin estimate, or any other algorithmic value. Those tools have their place, but they do not walk through the property. They do not know the condition of the upstairs versus the downstairs, they do not see deferred maintenance or recent renovations, and they often miss the nuances that drive value in established neighborhoods.

How a Real BOV Comes Together

For the case above, I personally walked the property. I saw that the family had completed a substantial first-floor renovation in 2021, including a remodeled kitchen, and had since invested in:

  • A full repipe of the residence
  • A new HVAC system
  • New downstairs windows and doors
  • Exterior stucco work
  • A 2023 whole-house termite tenting

I also saw that the upstairs was original and would benefit from cosmetic updating. Those condition details matter, and an algorithm cannot see them.

I then pulled twelve closed two-story sales in the Montiel tract from 2025, including two that were exact floor plan matches to the subject home and had been observed in similar first-floor condition at the time of their sales. Those two comps anchored the analysis. I bracketed them with the closest-in-time sale, the broader cluster of similar-size sales, and outlier sales that helped define the upper and lower bounds.

The result was a multi-page letter with a comparable sales grid, summary statistics, neighborhood and market commentary, a written reconciliation, and a final opinion of value as of the exact date of death. The family handed it to their CPA, who used it to establish the stepped-up cost basis for the property.

A casual value estimate does not hold up to IRS scrutiny. A properly supported BOV does.

5 Reasons You Might Need a Broker Opinion of Value

The estate scenario above is just one use case. Here are five of the most common reasons homeowners come to me for a BOV.

1

Death in the Family or Estate Settlement

When a property owner passes away, heirs typically receive a "stepped-up" cost basis equal to the property's fair market value on the date of death. That value determines how much capital gains tax the family will pay if and when the property is later sold. A documented BOV from a licensed broker, prepared with retrospective sales data, gives the CPA and estate attorney exactly what they need to support that basis on the estate's tax return.

2

Thinking About Selling

Before you list, you want to know what your home is realistically worth in the current market. Not what your neighbor thinks, not what an online algorithm says, and not what your old appraisal from a few years ago shows. A BOV gives you a defensible, comp-supported value range so you can decide whether to list now, make targeted improvements first, or hold. It is also useful for setting a strategic asking price and understanding what concessions, if any, you can afford to make.

3

Mortgage Refinance, HELOC, or Removing PMI

Most lenders require a formal appraisal for refinance transactions. But a BOV is useful before you start the process. It tells you whether refinancing is likely to make sense at your home's probable current value, whether you have enough equity to drop private mortgage insurance, or whether you should wait. Spending a few hours on a BOV can save you the cost and frustration of starting a refinance application that turns out to be a non-starter.

4

Divorce, Family Settlement, or Buy-Out

When real estate is part of a divorce settlement or a buy-out among family members, siblings inheriting jointly, or business partners separating, both sides need a value they can agree on. A neutral, written BOV from a licensed broker provides that starting point. Many family law attorneys prefer it as a first step before commissioning a full appraisal.

5

Trust Administration, Property Tax Appeals, or Long-Term Planning

Trustees managing real estate held in a trust may need periodic valuations for trust accounting purposes. Homeowners who believe their property has been over-assessed can use a BOV as supporting evidence in a property tax appeal. And families doing long-term estate or financial planning often want an honest, current value to inform decisions about gifting, refinancing, or restructuring how the property is held.

Considering a Broker Opinion of Value?

If you are facing one of the situations above, or any situation that requires a written, defensible opinion of value, a BOV is often the right tool. Faster than a full appraisal, far more rigorous than an online estimate, and prepared by someone who knows your neighborhood firsthand.

Request a BOV Consultation
Posted in Real Estate News
April 23, 2026

Newport Beach Golf Course: Surf Park Rejected, Housing Next?

By Eric Engelbert

UPDATE: APRIL 2026

The Newport Beach City Council has rescinded its October 2024 approval of the Snug Harbor Surf Park, a Wavegarden-powered wave lagoon that would have consumed roughly five acres of the Newport Beach Golf Course. The reversal came after a local group, Save Newport Beach Golf Course, gathered more than 6,100 verified petition signatures, enough to force either a public ballot or a rescission. Council members chose to rescind. The developer still holds approval for a scaled-down 20,000-square-foot version of the project, and the underlying golf course lease on the county-owned portion of the land runs through 2027. No housing proposal has been filed. But with the course sitting squarely inside the city's Airport Area housing overlay, the post-2027 question is no longer theoretical.

A quiet 18-hole executive course just became Orange County's most-watched piece of land.

The Newport Beach Golf Course at 3100 Irvine Avenue has been a fixture between the 55 and 73 freeways, tucked alongside John Wayne Airport, since 1976. It's an 18-hole executive layout designed by David and Harry Rainville. It plays to 3,216 yards at par 59, has a lighted driving range, and is one of the few public spots in this part of Orange County where you can grab a quick twilight round after work. It's also a course I've played many times over my 30 years in the game.

For most of its life, it was unremarkable in the best possible way, just a reliable, accessible public course. That changed in 2024, when a new proposal landed on the city's agenda that would have fundamentally altered what the property was for.

How the Wave Pool Fight Started

In September 2024, the Newport Beach City Council approved a $277,000 impact study, paid for by the developer, Back Bay Barrels LLC, to evaluate a Wavegarden-powered surf park on the golf course site. The company, founded by Newport Beach surfer Adam Cleary, had a sweeping vision: a roughly five-acre surf lagoon capable of producing up to 1,000 waves per hour, a three-story clubhouse, a surf academy, restaurants, retail, fitness and yoga space, and 20 bungalow-style athlete accommodations.

THE CATCH FOR GOLFERS:

The surf park would have sliced the course in half, eliminating three of the 18 holes, the putting green, the pro shop, the driving range, and the restaurant. The remaining 15 holes would have been split onto opposite sides of the surf lagoon. The Southern California Golf Association publicly questioned whether a chopped-up course could survive financially, and anyone who has managed tee sheets for a living would have raised the same question.

In October 2024, the City Council unanimously approved the project along with a general plan amendment that would have expanded the developer's footprint from 20,000 to 60,000 square feet. That vote is what lit the fuse.

The Petition That Stopped It

Within weeks, a grassroots group called Save Newport Beach Golf Course began collecting signatures for a referendum to overturn the general plan amendment. By the end of 2025, they had submitted more than 6,100 valid signatures, clearing the threshold required to force the council to either (a) place the question on a ballot or (b) rescind the approval outright.

January 2026: The Newport Beach City Council voted 6-0 (with one recusal) to rescind the general plan amendment. The developer still has the right to move forward on a 20,000-square-foot version, but the full-scale surf park is off the table.

If this dynamic sounds familiar, it should. It's a near-mirror of what's happening up the freeway in Irvine, where voters are wrestling with how much say they should have over the redevelopment of Oak Creek Golf Club. (See our blog post on the Oak Creek Golf Course redevelopment proposal.) Two different cities, two different proposals, one very similar fight: a long-standing golf course, a developer with a big vision, a state pushing hard on housing production, and residents using every procedural tool they have to slow it down.

A Loss for Golfers, Then a Win, at Least for Now

The Newport Beach Golf Course is not a prestige venue, and that's exactly the point. It's a working-person's course. It's where juniors hit their first real greens, where seniors walk nine after lunch, where the range stays full until the lights shut off.

FROM A SCRATCH HANDICAP:

As someone who has played golf at a scratch level for two decades, I can tell you: executive courses and lighted ranges are how most players in this county actually keep their games sharp. You don't prepare for a weekend round at Pelican Hill by practicing in your garage.

If the full surf park had gone through, the displacement would have been immediate. Newport Beach has very few public golf options to absorb that kind of traffic:

  • Hyatt Newport Back Bay Golf Course (9-hole)
  • Rancho San Joaquin Golf Course (Irvine)
  • Costa Mesa Country Club (Los Lagos and Mesa Linda)
  • Tustin Ranch Golf Club

For now, the course stays. But the structural pressures that made the surf park proposal attractive haven't gone anywhere.

Why Housing Is the Next Question

Here's the piece that often gets lost in the surf-park headlines: the county of Orange owns the back nine of the Newport Beach Golf Course, and that ground lease expires in 2027. The privately owned portion has its own timeline. Either way, this property's land-use future is up for renegotiation within roughly 18 months.

THE HOUSING PRESSURE AROUND THIS SITE:

• Newport Beach must plan for 4,845 new units under state RHNA mandates

• The Airport Area has a 2,577-unit development limit and is the city's primary housing engine

• The Irvine Company is converting MacArthur Court offices into 700 residential units

• Uptown Newport is planned for 1,200+ units at full buildout

In other words: the entire neighborhood around this golf course is being rezoned and redeveloped for housing. A 50-acre flat parcel inside an active housing overlay, with a lease expiring in 2027, adjacent to a major employment center, is not the kind of land that quietly stays a par-59 executive course forever. No formal housing proposal has been filed. But if you're handicapping what happens next, residential is the most probable use, not surfing.

Will 4,000+ New Homes Crash the Newport Beach Market?

This is the question I get most often once the topic of Newport Beach's state-mandated housing numbers comes up, and the short answer is no. Adding 4,000+ units across the Airport Area, Newport Center, Uptown Newport, MacArthur Court, and potentially the golf course site over the next several years is not going to crater values in a city where demand has consistently outpaced supply for decades.

ORANGE COUNTY NEW CONSTRUCTION
Homes built in 2025 and 2026, last 6 months

54
AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET
38
MEDIAN DAYS ON MARKET

Those are not numbers consistent with oversupply.

In a soft market, brand-new inventory is the first thing to sit, and it's not sitting. Buyers are still paying up for new product, and builders are still hitting their pro forma absorption rates.

Newport Beach specifically is a supply-constrained market, not a supply-flooded one. The units being added are spread across multiple submarkets, delivered over a multi-year timeline, and are largely high-density multifamily in the Airport Area, not direct competitors to coastal single-family inventory in Corona del Mar, Balboa Island, the Peninsula, or the Bluffs. Those are two different buyer pools.

TRACK THE NUMBERS YOURSELF

I publish two reports every month so you can watch this play out in the data rather than the headlines:

Newport Beach Real Estate Market Report (local inventory, pricing, days on market, and absorption rate by neighborhood)

Orange County Housing Report (the macro county-level picture alongside Newport's local trends)

The California Pattern

Nationally, the golf industry has been shrinking since the mid-2000s. Between 2011 and 2020, more than 150 U.S. courses closed each year while only a handful opened. In 2023 alone, the U.S. saw roughly 90 closures against just 24 new openings. California has led the decline. Stevinson Ranch, Malibu Golf Club, Mile Square, Sunol Valley, and others have all gone dark over the past 25 years. The driver is always the same combination: rising water and maintenance costs, soft demand for mid-tier public play, and land values that make redevelopment impossible to turn down.

That's the macro backdrop for both the Newport Beach Golf Course and Oak Creek. It's why these fights keep happening. And it's why, even when the community wins a round, like the Snug Harbor referendum, the underlying pressure doesn't go away.

A Market That Still Has Demand

Newport Beach real estate has held up through every national slowdown of the past two decades, and the Airport Area is arguably the most important growth zone in the city. Proximity to John Wayne, easy access to the 73 and 405, walking distance to Fashion Island and the Bluffs, and a full conversion of nearby offices into housing have made this submarket a focal point for both buyers and institutional capital. (See our blog post on the Newport Beach housing element ruling.)

If and when the golf course land transitions, demand will not be a question. The question will be what gets built and how many votes it takes to get there.

Is This a Done Deal?

NO. The surf park's full-scale version is rescinded. A 20,000-square-foot scaled-down version is still technically alive on paper. The golf course itself continues to operate today.

The county has signaled it wants to keep golf on the land post-2027, but no binding commitment has been announced, and the state's housing pressure is not going to lessen between now and then.

What changed in 2026 is the political reality. Newport Beach residents just demonstrated, as Irvine residents have done around Oak Creek, that they will use the initiative process to reshape land-use decisions they don't like. Any future proposal here, whether it's housing, a scaled surf park, or something else, will have to reckon with that.

The Trade-Offs

There's a real tension running through every one of these fights, and it's worth naming honestly. California has a severe housing shortage. Orange County cities are under state mandates to zone for thousands of new units. At the same time, open space, recreation, and community character are also real values. Once a course is gone, it's gone. No city in Orange County has built a new public 18-hole course in decades.

The Newport Beach Golf Course fight is not really about surfing versus golfing. It's about who gets to decide what a piece of land is for, and how much weight long-standing recreational use carries when weighed against housing production targets set in Sacramento. That same tension is driving the Oak Creek debate in Irvine, and it will drive the next one too.

Explore Homes for Sale in Newport Beach and Surrounding Cities

If you're considering a move or investment in the area, explore current listings in these Orange County cities near the Airport Area:

  1. Newport Beach: Homes for Sale in Newport Beach, CA
  2. Costa Mesa: Homes for Sale in Costa Mesa, CA
  3. Irvine: Homes for Sale in Irvine, CA
  4. Tustin: Homes for Sale in Tustin, CA
  5. Santa Ana: Homes for Sale in Santa Ana, CA
  6. Lake Forest: Homes for Sale in Lake Forest, CA

Public Golf Courses in Newport Beach and Surrounding Cities

If you're trying to stay in the game while this land-use fight plays out, here are the most accessible public options nearby:

Newport Beach:

Newport Beach Golf Course: The 18-hole lighted executive course at the center of this story, still open, still one of the few places in this part of the county where you can get a full round in after work.

Hyatt Newport Back Bay Golf Course: A 9-hole par-3 layout at the Hyatt Regency, good for short-game work and a quick nine.

Pelican Hill Golf Club: Two Tom Fazio championship courses with ocean views. The premium option in the area.

Costa Mesa:

Costa Mesa Country Club: Two 18-hole public layouts (Los Lagos and Mesa Linda), probably the most accessible full-length public golf near Newport Beach.

Irvine:

Rancho San Joaquin Golf Course: Irvine's original public course, with lakes and mature trees.

Strawberry Farms Golf Club: A full-length championship course with a more rural feel than you'd expect given the location.

Oak Creek Golf Club: Still open, but facing its own redevelopment proposal. See the Oak Creek blog linked above for the full story.

Tustin:

Tustin Ranch Golf Club: Easily the best daily-fee experience in the area, with a genuine private-club feel.

Santa Ana:

Willowick Golf Course: The oldest 18-hole public course in Orange County, and itself the subject of long-running redevelopment conversations.

River View Golf Course: A quirky, tight layout along the Santa Ana River.

2026 Update: Surf Park Rescinded, Housing Question Still Open

The most important development in 2026 is the Newport Beach City Council's January vote to rescind the general plan amendment that would have enabled the full-scale Snug Harbor Surf Park. That decision was a direct response to a referendum drive that gathered more than 6,100 signatures through the Save Newport Beach Golf Course campaign. The 6-0 rescission vote (with one recusal) eliminated the developer's right to expand into the additional 40,000 square feet that the October 2024 approval had authorized. A 20,000-square-foot scaled version remains technically viable.

THE BIGGER QUESTION, STILL UNRESOLVED: What happens when the lease expires in 2027? The county has said it wants to preserve golf on the land, but no binding agreement is in place. The course sits inside the Airport Area housing overlay, where Newport Beach is under significant state pressure to accommodate thousands of new units. No housing proposal has been filed. No ballot measure on the long-term use of the site has been scheduled. Save Newport Beach Golf Course and other community groups remain organized and active, and as the Oak Creek fight up the freeway has shown, voter-initiative tools can meaningfully shape the outcome when residents choose to use them.

The final round hasn't been played on this course yet. But the back nine, literally and politically, is where the next decision will be made.

Posted in Real Estate News
April 7, 2026

Oak Creek Golf Course May Be Replaced by 3,100 New Homes | What’s Next for Irvine?

By Eric Engelbert

UPDATE: JULY 2026

On April 14, 2026, the Irvine City Council approved a zoning change to allow for a public nature park on the Oak Creek site. On July 6, 2026, the City issued a Notice of Preparation for the Environmental Impact Report (EIR), which is the formal start of the state-required environmental study. A public meeting is scheduled for July 20, 2026, where residents can comment on what the study should cover. No voter ballot measure has been scheduled as of this writing, and the question of whether voters must approve any change to the site's 1988 open space protection remains unresolved.

UPDATE: APRIL 2026

The Irvine Company significantly revised its Oak Creek plan, now proposing a 50-acre public nature park as a centerpiece of the development. In March 2026, the Irvine Planning Commission voted unanimously (7-0) to recommend a zoning change that would allow for the nature park. As of this writing, the project has not been fully approved, no voter ballot measure has been held, and the 1988 open space protection remains a central point of legal and political debate.

UPDATE: NOVEMBER 2025

The Irvine City Council approved a formal agreement with The Irvine Company for the proposed Oak Creek Golf Club redevelopment, including a land use plan change for the Oak Creek site. Environmental and traffic reviews are underway, with formal public hearings expected in late 2026. Residents may vote on the future of the site due to its original 1988 open space protection.

The long-rumored transformation of Oak Creek Golf Club in Irvine is officially underway, at least on paper.

The Irvine Company submitted a formal proposal to the City of Irvine to redevelop the 193-acre public golf course into a new master-planned community. Their original proposal called for 3,100 homes. The city's land use plan change the City Council approved in April 2026 sets the cap lower, at up to 2,400 residential units. The final number will be determined as the project works through the environmental study and approval process.

THE IRVINE COMPANY'S ORIGINAL PROPOSAL (3,100 UNITS):

1,500 single-family homes

1,600 apartments

• A new public school funded by the developer

• A community center repurposed from the existing clubhouse

WHAT THE CITY'S APPROVED PLAN ALLOWS:

Up to 2,400 residential units

• A 50-acre public nature park and trail system

• A future elementary school site

• Neighborhood parks and transportation improvements

If approved, this would become the Irvine Company's 23rd residential village, named Irvine Spectrum District Village. Located just south of the 5 Freeway between Jeffrey Road and Sand Canyon Avenue, the land sits near Irvine Spectrum's commercial hub, making any future community walkable and bikeable to jobs, shops, and services.

A GOLFER'S PERSPECTIVE: MY TWO CENTS

I am a golfer, and I will be straight with you: I would rather see Oak Creek stay exactly as it is. It is a well-run public facility with one of the best practice ranges in Orange County, and it serves the community every single day.

Here is the part that I find hard to get past. The City of Irvine has already planned for more than 57,000 housing units across the city. The state only requires 23,610. That is nearly two and a half times the state requirement, before Oak Creek contributes a single home to the count. There is land in the Irvine Business Complex, the Great Park area, and the Spectrum corridor that can absorb thousands of units without touching a single fairway.

So the question worth asking is: with that much capacity already in the pipeline, why does the golf course have to go? These are some of the wealthiest developers in the country. At some point, it is fair to ask how much is enough.

A Loss for Golfers, A Win for Housing?

Oak Creek is not just any golf course. It is home to one of the largest practice facilities in Orange County, busy seven days a week. The driving range alone generates significant revenue. Still, in the race to build more homes, that recreational use may soon be history if this project moves forward.

For local golfers, the closure would push more traffic onto nearby public courses, crowding practice times and tee times. Some alternatives in the area:

  • Lake Forest Golf and Practice Center
  • Rancho San Joaquin Golf Course
  • Tustin Ranch Golf Club

And this would not be an isolated event. In California, dozens of golf courses have closed over the past 25 years, including Stevinson Ranch, Malibu Golf Club, Mile Square, and Sunol Valley Golf Club. Most closures come down to financial pressure, rising maintenance and water costs, and land values that make residential development too attractive to ignore.

THE U.S. GOLF INDUSTRY IS SHRINKING
2023 U.S. course activity

90
COURSES CLOSED
24
NEW COURSES OPENED

Between 2011 and 2020, over 150 courses closed per year nationally. California has seen very few new openings in recent years.

A Market That Still Has Demand

Across the U.S., homebuyers are proceeding cautiously. But Orange County is an exception. Demand here remains high, especially in desirable cities like Irvine, one of the largest and fastest-growing cities in the region. (See our blog post about the largest and smallest cities in Orange County.)

Irvine consistently ranks among the safest cities in America, and its well-planned communities and top-rated schools keep it in demand regardless of national housing trends. (Check out our blog on the safest cities in California.)

Is This a Done Deal?

NOT YET. The City Council approved the zoning change in April 2026 and the environmental study process launched in July 2026. But several major hurdles remain before any ground is broken.

The 50-acre nature park at the heart of the revised plan would feature trails, creeks, meadows, woodlands, and a nature center for educational programming. It would also connect to the Jeffrey Open Space Trail, completing a continuous greenway from Limestone Canyon Nature Preserve in the east to Quail Hill Nature Preserve in the west. That is a genuine community benefit, and it appears to be what convinced the Planning Commission to vote 7-0 in favor of the zoning change in March 2026.

WHERE THINGS STAND AS OF JULY 2026:

• City Council approved zoning change: April 14, 2026

• Environmental Impact Report process started: July 6, 2026

• Public meeting (residents can comment on what the study covers): July 20, 2026

• Voter approval question: unresolved

• Ground breaking: years away at minimum

The voter approval question is the biggest wildcard. In 1988, Irvine residents voted to protect the Oak Creek land as permanent open space. Opponents of the development argue any change to that protection must go back to the voters. Mayor Larry Agran and other City Council members have signaled support for a ballot measure, but as of July 2026 no ballot measure has been scheduled or confirmed. Advocacy groups like Save Irvine Open Space remain actively engaged.

Let's be clear: when the Irvine Company wants to build, they usually do. The addition of the nature park appears to be a strategic move designed to build community and political support. Whether it is enough to clear a potential voter hurdle remains to be seen.

THE IRVINE COMPANY'S COMMUNITY BENEFITS PACKAGE:

• Up to $96 million in fees paid to the city

2,000 rent vouchers for affordable housing (valued at $72 million)

• Additional land and avocado groves donated to help expand a nature preserve in northern Irvine

What Is an Environmental Impact Report?

An Environmental Impact Report, or EIR, is a study required by California law for major development projects. It looks at how a proposed project could affect traffic, air quality, noise, water, wildlife, public services, and more. The process starts with a Notice of Preparation, which tells the public the study is coming and invites comments on what it should cover. That notice was issued for this project on July 6, 2026. A public meeting follows, giving residents a chance to weigh in before the study is written. Once the draft study is published, there is another comment period before it is finalized and certified. For a project this size, the full process typically takes one to two years.

The Trade-Offs

If approved, the Oak Creek project would bring thousands of housing units to one of the most centrally located areas of Irvine. At a time when inventory is limited and prices remain high, it is easy to see the appeal, especially given the state's housing requirements that cities like Irvine are under pressure to meet. But Irvine has already planned for more than 57,000 units citywide. The state requires 23,610. That context matters when weighing whether a public golf course is the right place to squeeze out more housing.

For those who valued Oak Creek as a peaceful escape, this change may feel bittersweet. The final putt has not dropped yet, but if it does, it will mark the end of an era for recreational golfers in Orange County.

Oak Creek is just one of dozens of major development projects reshaping Orange County right now. See every city, every project, and every status on our New Developments in Orange County page.

Explore Homes for Sale in Irvine and Surrounding Cities

If you are considering a move or investment in the area, explore current listings in these Orange County cities:

  1. Irvine: Homes for Sale in Irvine, CA
  2. Costa Mesa: Homes for Sale in Costa Mesa, CA
  3. Newport Beach: Homes for Sale in Newport Beach, CA
  4. Lake Forest: Homes for Sale in Lake Forest, CA
  5. Santa Ana: Homes for Sale in Santa Ana, CA
  6. Tustin: Homes for Sale in Tustin, CA

Public Golf Courses in Irvine and Surrounding Cities

If Oak Creek closes, local golfers will need options. Here are the public and semi-public courses in the area worth knowing about.

Irvine

Rancho San Joaquin Golf Course

Irvine's first public golf course, featuring scenic lakes and challenging greens.

Strawberry Farms Golf Club

Combines rural beauty with championship golf and a unique setting.

Costa Mesa

Costa Mesa Country Club

Two 18-hole courses, Los Lagos and Mesa Linda, catering to all skill levels.

This course is also under pressure from developers. Read more »

Newport Beach

Newport Beach Golf Course

An 18-hole executive course, conveniently located and lighted for night play.

This course has also faced development pressure. Read more »

Pelican Hill Golf Club

Two Tom Fazio-designed courses with stunning ocean views.

Lake Forest

Lake Forest Golf and Practice Center

A 9-hole executive course, ideal for beginners and seasoned players alike.

Santa Ana

Willowick Golf Course

The oldest 18-hole public golf course in Orange County, offering a classic experience.

River View Golf Course

Known for its unique and challenging layout.

Tustin

Tustin Ranch Golf Club

A picturesque course with a reputation for excellence and a private club feel.

Posted in Real Estate News