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July 6, 2026

Related Bristol Is Replacing Metro Town Square with 3,750 Homes, a Hotel, and 13 Acres of Parks in Santa Ana

By Eric Engelbert

A 41-acre site in Santa Ana just received approval for one of the largest mixed-use redevelopments in Orange County history. The Related Bristol project will replace the aging Metro Town Square shopping center with 3,750 apartment homes, 200 senior living units, a 250-room hotel, 350,000 square feet of retail and dining, and 13.1 acres of publicly accessible open space. The total development value is $2.9 billion. The Santa Ana City Council approved it 6-0 in October 2024. Construction is set to begin in 2026, with the full project completing in phases by 2036. If you own a home, rent an apartment, or are considering buying anywhere near the Bristol Street and Sunflower Avenue corridor, here is what you need to know about the project that will define this part of Orange County for the next generation. We also recently covered The Village Santa Ana, a second major redevelopment directly adjacent to this site, adding another 1,583 homes just to the south.

Metro Town Square: A 50-Year-Old Mall That Time Left Behind

Metro Town Square opened in the 1970s on a 41-acre block bounded by Bristol Street to the east, Plaza Drive to the west, Sunflower Avenue to the south, and MacArthur Boulevard to the north. For decades it served the surrounding community as a functional neighborhood retail center, home to nearly 100 tenants ranging from restaurants and service businesses to clothing and grocery. But like many suburban malls built in that era, it struggled to adapt to changing retail patterns and experienced a gradual decline in traffic and tenancy over the past 20 years.

What triggered the redevelopment was not a developer swooping in to force out tenants. The families who had owned the property for generations reached out to Related California themselves, because all of the retail leases at Metro Town Square were expiring in 2025. With a mass lease expiration on the horizon and no compelling case for a conventional retail renovation, the ownership decided to pursue something transformational. That origin story matters: Related was brought in by the landowners, not the other way around.

For now, the nearly 100 existing tenants remain open for business while Related secures project financing ahead of the 2026 construction start. Phased construction will begin at the southern end of the site and move northward, meaning tenants in the northern portion of Metro Town Square will operate longer before their portion of the site is cleared. Related has not announced a formal tenant relocation program publicly, but the phased approach gives businesses in the northern zone additional time to prepare.

Related California: The Firm Behind Hudson Yards, Now Betting Big on Santa Ana

Related California is a subsidiary of Related Companies, one of the largest privately held real estate firms in the United States. The parent company is best known for developing Hudson Yards in Manhattan, a $25 billion mixed-use complex on the far west side of New York City that stands as the largest private real estate development in American history. Related Companies operates at the top of the institutional development market, and its involvement signals the level of capital and long-term commitment this project represents.

Related California was founded in 1989 and has spent more than three decades building across the state, with a portfolio of more than 20,700 residential units completed or under construction. Its work spans the full spectrum from luxury high-rise residential to affordable housing redevelopment, making it unusual among large-scale developers for its genuine range across income levels and product types. Related California is frequently cited as the largest developer of mixed-income housing in California.

Their Orange County footprint already includes work in Santa Ana. The Crossroads at Washington, an affordable community in Santa Ana's Logan neighborhood, provided 85 apartments for extremely low-income families and people experiencing homelessness. Related Bristol is a different scale and product entirely, but the existing OC presence means the developer is not learning this market from scratch. Their Newport Beach-area relationships and familiarity with OC entitlement processes were evident in the relatively smooth path to a 6-0 council approval.

The Design Team: Robert A.M. Stern, Gehl, RIOS, and Elkus Manfredi

The architecture and planning team assembled for Related Bristol is one of the most credentialed groups ever brought to an Orange County project. Understanding who these firms are gives a real sense of the ambition behind the design.

Robert A.M. Stern Architects (RAMSA) is the lead architect. RAMSA is a New York firm founded by Robert A.M. Stern, the former dean of the Yale School of Architecture and one of the most respected architects in the world. The firm is known for buildings that blend traditional American architectural character with contemporary program requirements, including residential towers at 15 Central Park West in New York and new residential colleges at Yale and Princeton. The choice of RAMSA signals that Related wants Related Bristol to feel rooted and permanent rather than trend-driven.

Elkus Manfredi Architects is a Boston firm with deep expertise in mixed-use urban design, particularly retail and entertainment districts. Their work includes major mixed-use projects across the country and they are specifically known for designing ground-level environments that activate streets and draw pedestrian activity.

RIOS is the landscape architecture and urban design lead, responsible for the 13.1 acres of publicly accessible open space, including parks, plazas, streetscapes, and pedestrian pathways. RIOS is also the landscape architect on The Village Santa Ana directly to the south, which creates an unusual opportunity for design continuity between the two projects.

Gehl is the urban planning consultant. Gehl is a Copenhagen-based firm with a global reputation for human-scale city design, focused on making urban spaces walkable, bikeable, and genuinely inviting for everyday life rather than just impressive in renderings. Their involvement points to a serious commitment to the pedestrian experience throughout the 41-acre site.

3,750 Homes, a Hotel, Senior Living, and Three Phases Over Ten Years

Related Bristol will be built in three sequential phases, none of which will overlap, starting from the southern portion of the site and progressing northward. The full project is projected to complete by 2036. Here is the full scope:

3,750 residential apartments across the three phases, making this one of the largest single-site apartment developments ever approved in Orange County. 200 senior living units, a component that directly addresses the needs of an aging Orange County population that is increasingly priced out of the assisted living and senior housing market. A 250-room hotel, which will serve both business travelers working in the South Coast Metro employment district and visitors to the nearby Segerstrom Center for the Arts and South Coast Plaza. 350,000 square feet of retail and dining, roughly three times the footprint of the retail component at The Village Santa Ana next door, intended to create a genuine commercial district rather than ground-floor amenity space. And 13.1 acres of open space, all of it publicly accessible, including parks, plazas, and pedestrian pathways connecting through the site.

The site will also include 6,520 onsite parking spaces, a number that reflects both the density of the project and the reality that Central OC residents will not be abandoning their cars anytime soon, regardless of how walkable the new neighborhood is designed to be.

No on-site affordable units are included in the plan. Related California will instead pay $18 million in affordable housing in-lieu fees to the city, which can direct those funds toward affordable housing elsewhere in Santa Ana.

$544 Million in Community Benefits and 16,800 Jobs: The Deal Santa Ana Made

The City of Santa Ana approved Related Bristol with what it described as an unprecedented community benefits package valued at $544 million. That figure encompasses direct payments, public infrastructure, open space commitments, job creation, and projected tax revenue over the life of the project.

The direct payments to the city include a $22 million Community Benefit Fund, which the council has discretion to allocate toward fire and life safety improvements, a multi-use community center or library, affordable housing, public art, or other community priorities. This is in addition to the $18 million in affordable housing in-lieu fees. The city projects the development will generate $500 million in new net tax revenue to Santa Ana over the first 30 years, which is critical context given the city's current fiscal pressures. Santa Ana is currently facing a budget deficit of approximately $19 million as of 2026, with the expiration of Measure X sales tax revenues threatening to deepen that gap in the years ahead. A project that generates $500 million in new city revenue over three decades is not optional. It is structural.

On employment, the project is projected to generate 16,834 one-time construction jobs and between 1,215 and 5,529 permanent ongoing jobs, with first-source local hiring commitments focused on Santa Ana and Orange County residents. The path to that approval was not entirely smooth: representatives from the LA/OC Building Trades Council and IBEW Local 441 raised concerns in the weeks before the council vote that Related California had not yet reached a formal community labor workforce agreement with local unions, which would have ensured Santa Ana residents had priority for construction employment. The council ultimately voted 6-0 to approve without that agreement in place, a decision that drew some criticism from organized labor. Whether Related California reaches a broader workforce agreement as financing is finalized will be worth watching before construction begins.

What 5,000 New Market-Rate Homes Mean for a Working-Class City

Related Bristol and The Village Santa Ana, taken together, represent more than 5,300 new homes being added to a single stretch of South Santa Ana over the next 10 to 20 years. None of those units are on-site affordable. Both projects pay in-lieu fees instead. That is the honest math, and it deserves direct discussion.

Santa Ana is a majority-Latino city with some of the highest population densities in California. It is a city where working families have been getting priced out of their own neighborhoods for years, and where the word "gentrification" is not an abstraction but a lived daily experience for many residents. Bringing nearly $6 billion in combined development investment to this corridor will change the character of the surrounding neighborhoods. Higher-end retail, new restaurants, premium apartment buildings, and increased foot traffic from a hotel and office workers will shift what this part of Santa Ana looks and feels like. That is not inherently good or bad. It depends entirely on whether existing residents benefit from those changes or are displaced by them.

The $22 million community benefit fund and the $18 million in affordable housing fees create tools the city council can use to mitigate displacement and invest in existing residents. Whether those tools are deployed effectively is a policy question that will unfold over the next decade. The jobs component, particularly the first-source hiring commitment, is potentially the most meaningful economic lever for current Santa Ana residents if it is enforced with specificity rather than left as a general aspiration.

Read our coverage of the nearby Village Santa Ana, another 1,583-home project just south on Sunflower Avenue.

What Nearby Homeowners Should Expect from Two Simultaneous Mega-Projects

If you own a home within a mile or two of Bristol Street and Sunflower Avenue, you are not tracking one major construction project. You are tracking two. Related Bristol and The Village Santa Ana are both projected to break ground in 2026. While neither project will be simultaneously active across its full footprint, there will be periods during the next decade when both sites have active construction phases running at the same time. The cumulative impact on traffic, noise, and daily life in the surrounding neighborhood will be more significant than either project in isolation.

Bristol Street, Sunflower Avenue, Plaza Drive, and MacArthur Boulevard will all carry elevated construction traffic over an extended period. The 55 Freeway on-ramps serving this area will also see increased congestion during peak construction phases. Homeowners who commute through this corridor should plan for meaningful delays and consider alternate routes during the heaviest periods of each phase.

The long-term value story is considerably stronger. The combined effect of nearly $6 billion in institutional development investment, backed by some of the most capable firms in the country, is a generational improvement in the desirability of this corridor. New parks, activated retail streets, a hotel, office employment, and well-designed public spaces all improve the neighborhood context that surrounding homeowners live in and that buyers evaluate when making purchase decisions. The tax revenue generated by both projects will also improve city services and public infrastructure over time, which benefits every property owner in Santa Ana.

The practical advice for homeowners near the site is the same as for The Village Santa Ana: the next five years will bring disruption. The decade after that should bring appreciation. If your planning horizon is short, price accordingly. If you are holding long, the trajectory of this corridor is as clear as it has been in decades.

Wondering what your home is worth now? Call or text Eric at 949-430-7500 for a no-obligation market analysis.

What This Means for Buyers and Renters in the South Coast Corridor Today

For renters, Related Bristol adds 3,750 market-rate units to the Central OC rental market over a ten-year period. The near-term effect on rents is minimal since the first units are years away. But the long-term addition of this volume of supply, combined with the 957 units at One Metro West in Costa Mesa and the 1,583 units at The Village Santa Ana, represents a meaningful increase in the total rental housing stock in this part of Orange County. More supply at the higher end of the market tends to create pricing pressure across the submarket over time, which benefits renters throughout the corridor.

For buyers, the corridor between South Coast Plaza and the Segerstrom Center for the Arts is undergoing a transformation that will take years to fully price into surrounding property values. Buyers who purchase in Santa Ana or the adjacent Costa Mesa neighborhoods today are entering before the most visible signs of that transformation are on the ground. That is historically when the best value is available.

Current market conditions in Santa Ana offer more negotiating room than buyers have had in several years. Homes are sitting longer, and sellers are more willing to negotiate on both price and terms than they were in 2021 or 2022. The fundamentals of a neighborhood in the early stages of a 20-year institutional redevelopment story are not yet reflected in asking prices for the majority of single-family homes in the area. That gap will close.

Browse homes for sale in Santa Ana or explore all Orange County listings at ocrealestateinc.com

Related Bristol Is the Largest Redevelopment Project in Santa Ana History

$2.9 billion. 41 acres. 3,750 homes. A hotel, senior living, 13 acres of parks, and a design team that includes the architects of Hudson Yards and 15 Central Park West. This is not a speculative proposal. It is approved, financed, and breaking ground in 2026. The South Coast Metro corridor is being rebuilt from the ground up, and the decisions you make about buying, renting, or holding in this area in the next few years will be made in the shadow of that reality.

Questions about buying, selling, or renting in the South Coast area? Call or text Eric at 949-430-7500 or visit ocrealestateinc.com

Posted in Real Estate News
July 6, 2026

The Village Santa Ana: South Coast Plaza Village Is Being Replaced by a 25-Story Mixed-Use Neighborhood

By Eric Engelbert

One of Orange County's most recognizable but quietly declining retail sites is about to disappear. The South Coast Plaza Village, the 1973-era open-air mall on Sunflower Avenue just south of the 405 Freeway, is being demolished and replaced by an entirely new urban neighborhood. The project, called The Village Santa Ana, will bring 1,583 homes, 300,000 square feet of office space, 80,000 square feet of retail and dining, and nearly 14 acres of open space to a 17-acre site that has sat in slow decline for years. Buildings will rise up to 25 stories. The Santa Ana City Council approved the project unanimously, 7 to 0, on September 16, 2025. Construction was projected to begin in January 2026. Here is everything buyers, renters, and anyone living in the South Coast corridor needs to know.

What Is There Now: A Mall That Never Quite Found Its Footing

South Coast Plaza Village opened in 1973 on the southwest corner of Bristol Street and Sunflower Avenue in Santa Ana, situated directly across Sunflower from its much more famous sibling, South Coast Plaza. The two malls were developed by the same family, the Segerstroms, but South Coast Plaza evolved into one of the highest-grossing retail centers in the country, while South Coast Plaza Village followed a different and quieter trajectory. Today the 164,000-square-foot center operates with fewer tenants and noticeably less traffic than it did in its peak years.

The names that remain are notable in their own right. Morton's The Steakhouse and Darya Fine Persian Cuisine are anchors with loyal clientele. Grace Tailoring, a small alterations business owned by Rick Kim's family, has been operating at the center for 14 years. The Regency Theatres location, which sat on the only parcel of the property located across Plaza Drive from the main mall footprint, closed in February 2025, becoming the first visible sign that redevelopment was imminent.

Management has communicated with the remaining tenants. Rick Kim told the OC Register that South Coast Plaza representatives have assured his family they will help find a new space when the time comes. His quote captures the situation well: "We're not worried. Our hope is we can stay close and secure a space that's walking distance within the plaza." The Segerstrom family has deep roots in this community, and their handling of the tenant transition will likely reflect that. No formal relocation commitments have been made public.

The Developers: A Century-Old OC Family and a Global Real Estate Firm

The land is owned by C.J. Segerstrom and Sons, the family development company that has been building Orange County since 1898. The Segerstroms are not an outside investor swooping in to extract value from a site. They are one of the foundational forces that built South County. They developed South Coast Plaza, the Segerstrom Center for the Arts, and much of the commercial fabric around Costa Mesa and Santa Ana. With the land already in family ownership, there is no acquisition cost in this deal, which significantly changes the financial equation and gives the project unusual long-term flexibility.

The operating development partner is Hines, a Houston-based real estate investment firm with a Newport Beach office and a substantial footprint in Orange County. Hines is one of the largest privately owned real estate firms in the world, with projects in more than 30 countries. Locally, their work includes 2211 Michelson in Irvine, a Class A office tower near John Wayne Airport; 1750 East Fourth Street in Santa Ana, a residential development a few blocks north of the project site; The Volt Campus in Orange, an adaptive reuse creative office project; and Ball Road Business Park in Anaheim. Hines has the institutional capacity to finance and execute a 20-year, multi-phase project of this scale. The combination of Segerstrom's land ownership and Hines's development muscle is an unusually strong partnership for a project of this complexity.

The design team is equally credentialed. Gensler is the lead architect. Gensler is one of the largest and most recognized architecture firms in the world, with extensive mixed-use and urban design experience across California. RIOS is handling landscape architecture and urban design. RIOS has a reputation for ambitious public realm work, and the 13.8 acres of open space planned for this project, 7.5 acres of which will be publicly accessible, will be one of the most significant tests of their approach in Orange County.

1,583 Homes, Towers Up to 25 Stories, and 14 Acres of Open Space

The Village Santa Ana will be built in five phases over approximately 20 years. The full buildout includes 1,583 residential units, 300,000 square feet of office space, 80,000 square feet of retail and dining, 13.8 acres of open space, and 3,439 parking spaces. Buildings range from low-rise street-level retail up to towers reaching 25 stories, making this the tallest residential development proposed in Santa Ana's recent history.

Phase 1, the first portion to break ground, targets 360 residential units, 73,175 square feet of commercial space, and 3.1 acres of open space. Phase 1 is the foundation of the project's public realm and will set the architectural and community tone for everything that follows. Each subsequent phase adds residential density, office square footage, and park area, building toward the full neighborhood vision over the next two decades.

There are no on-site affordable units. Instead, the developer agreed to pay $7.1 million in affordable housing in-lieu fees to the city, which can deploy those funds toward affordable housing elsewhere in Santa Ana. The project also includes a $9.3 million community benefits package, paid in four installments as each phase is completed, with the city council directing how those funds are allocated. Development fees total approximately $6 million.

One notable concession made during the approval process: the original specific plan included hotel use. After opposition from Unite Here Local 11, the hotel workers union, the developer agreed to remove the hotel entitlement. A conditional use permit would now be required if Hines ever wanted to revisit that component in the future.

Unanimous Approval, a 10x Tax Revenue Jump, and What the $1.9 Billion Figure Actually Means

The Santa Ana City Council voted 7 to 0 to approve The Village Santa Ana on September 16, 2025. That unanimity is significant. It reflects both the strength of the project's community benefits package and the city's urgent fiscal reality. Santa Ana currently collects just over $500,000 per year in tax revenue from the South Coast Plaza Village site. Once The Village Santa Ana is fully built out, that figure is projected to reach $5.5 million per year, nearly ten times the current amount. The city is also facing a projected $30 million budget deficit beginning around 2029, when its Measure X sales tax measure sunsets. A project that nearly decuples tax revenue from one site, while adding 9,000 jobs (approximately 1,000 of them recurring), is difficult to vote against in that environment.

You may have seen this described as a "$1.9 billion project." That number requires some explanation. The development will encompass approximately 1.9 million square feet of new construction across all five phases. The figure sometimes cited as "$1.9 billion" appears to conflate the square footage with a dollar value. No publicly disclosed construction budget of $1.9 billion has been confirmed by the developers or the city. The OC Business Journal estimated the finished project's total value could approach $1.5 billion. A final development cost over 20 years in that range, or potentially higher given inflation and financing costs, is plausible for a project of this scope in coastal Southern California. But because the Segerstrom family owns the land outright, there is no land acquisition cost factored into the equation, which is a meaningful difference from most large-scale developments.

Construction was projected to begin in January 2026. As of this writing, no formal groundbreaking ceremony has been announced publicly, though the timeline implies Phase 1 site work should be underway or imminent.

A Neighborhood in Transition: Gentrification, Related Bristol, and What It Means for Santa Ana

It is impossible to discuss The Village Santa Ana honestly without acknowledging the broader context. Santa Ana is a majority-Latino, working-class city. It is also one of the most densely populated cities in California, with a chronic shortage of housing at prices its residents can actually afford. The Village Santa Ana adds 1,583 homes with zero on-site affordable units. The developer pays $7.1 million into an affordable housing fund instead. Whether that tradeoff serves Santa Ana's existing residents or accelerates displacement depends heavily on where and how those funds are deployed, and on what rents or sale prices the new units ultimately command.

The Village Santa Ana is also not the only large-scale redevelopment happening in this corridor. Just to the east, Related Bristol, a joint venture between Related California and Bristol Street property owners, received approval in 2024 to redevelop the Metro Town Square Mall site into 3,750 homes across 42 acres, with a reported project value of $2.9 billion. Together, the Village Santa Ana and Related Bristol projects could add more than 5,000 new homes to a single stretch of Bristol and Sunflower over the next 20 years, fundamentally reshaping the character of that corridor.

The 9,000 jobs projected for The Village Santa Ana, with 1,000 recurring positions, offer a counterpoint. Construction employment, office tenants, and ground-floor retail jobs can benefit existing Santa Ana residents if training and hiring programs are structured intentionally. The $9.3 million community benefits package is meant to fund exactly those kinds of initiatives, but the specifics of how the council allocates those funds will matter more than the dollar figure alone.

Who Will Live There and What Will It Cost?

No pricing has been released. The project has not confirmed whether the residential units will be for-sale condominiums, rental apartments, or a combination. Given Hines's track record on comparable projects and the 20-year development horizon, the most likely scenario is rental apartments in the early phases, with potential for-sale product as later phases are designed closer to their construction dates.

What the project's positioning signals is a premium product. Gensler-designed buildings up to 25 stories, 7.5 acres of public open space, 80,000 square feet of ground-floor retail and dining, and a site adjacent to South Coast Plaza and the Segerstrom Center for the Arts are not the components of a workforce housing project. Current market averages for Santa Ana rentals run approximately $2,000 to $2,400 for a one-bedroom and $2,600 to $3,100 for a two-bedroom, depending on building quality and location. A luxury Hines product in this location, when Phase 1 units eventually come to market, would likely price above current Santa Ana averages and closer to the Irvine or Costa Mesa luxury tier, potentially $2,800 to $3,500 for a one-bedroom and $3,500 and up for a two-bedroom.

For buyers watching this corridor, the transformative scale of these projects (Village Santa Ana plus Related Bristol) is a signal worth tracking. Long-term, the addition of tens of thousands of square feet of office, curated retail, and well-designed open space to a site adjacent to two of OC's most significant cultural and retail anchors tends to lift the desirability of surrounding neighborhoods. For buyers considering Santa Ana or the South Coast area now, that trajectory is part of the value calculus.

Browse homes for sale in Santa Ana or explore all Orange County listings at ocrealestateinc.com

What This Means for South Coast Area Buyers and Renters Right Now

Projects like The Village Santa Ana take decades to fully realize. Phase 1 is just beginning, and the final tower will not top out for 20 years. That time horizon matters for how you weigh the development's impact on your decisions today.

For renters in Santa Ana and the surrounding area, the near-term effect of a project this size is minimal. The new units are years away from lease-up. What the project signals is that institutional capital and top-tier development talent view this corridor as a long-term bet, which is a meaningful endorsement of the area's trajectory. For renters who want to get ahead of that trajectory, now is a reasonable time to be looking at buying in Santa Ana before Phase 1 delivers and attention shifts toward the neighborhood.

For buyers, the current market in Santa Ana offers more negotiating room than it has in several years. Homes are sitting longer across Orange County, and sellers in the $600,000 to $900,000 range are more willing to negotiate on price and terms than they were in 2021 and 2022. Buying into a neighborhood with a 20-year institutional redevelopment story already approved and funded is a different proposition from speculating on an uncertain future. The story here is not speculation. It is already approved, already breaking ground, and already backed by one of the most capable development teams in the region.

What Nearby Homeowners Should Expect: Construction Traffic, Timelines, and Long-Term Value

If you own a home within a mile or two of the Sunflower and Bristol corridor, The Village Santa Ana is not an abstraction. It is a 20-year construction project that will have real and immediate effects on your daily life before it delivers any of its long-term benefits.

The honest reality is that construction traffic will be significant and sustained. Phase 1 alone involves site demolition, foundation work for mid-rise buildings, underground parking, and utility relocation on a 17-acre footprint. Sunflower Avenue, Bristol Street, and the surrounding surface streets will see elevated truck traffic, temporary lane closures, and increased congestion during construction hours. And The Village Santa Ana is not the only project under way in this corridor. The Related Bristol project, which will redevelop the Metro Town Square Mall site into 3,750 homes across 42 acres just to the east, received approval in 2024 and is moving toward its own groundbreaking. When both projects are simultaneously in construction, the cumulative impact on traffic through this stretch of Santa Ana will be measurable. Homeowners who commute through Bristol, Sunflower, or the 55 Freeway on-ramps should plan for longer drive times during peak phases of both developments.

The longer-term story for homeowners is more favorable. Large-scale mixed-use redevelopment, when it is well-executed and well-funded, tends to improve property values in surrounding neighborhoods over time. The mechanisms are straightforward: new retail and dining activate the area and reduce the need to drive elsewhere, new office employment brings higher-income residents into the neighborhood's orbit, and well-maintained public parks raise the perceived quality of the surrounding blocks. The Segerstrom family's track record in this regard is strong. South Coast Plaza and the Segerstrom Center for the Arts have been substantial contributors to the desirability and value of surrounding Costa Mesa and Santa Ana neighborhoods for decades.

The city's tax revenue projection makes the case numerically. When the South Coast Plaza Village site currently generates just over $500,000 in annual tax revenue and The Village Santa Ana is projected to generate $5.5 million at full build-out, that additional $5 million per year in municipal revenue means more city services, better-maintained infrastructure, and a city government with more fiscal capacity to invest in the neighborhoods that surround the project. Combined with Related Bristol's own projected tax contributions, this corridor has the potential to become one of the most significant revenue-generating districts in Santa Ana, which benefits homeowners across the city through improved public services and a strengthened city balance sheet.

The practical advice for homeowners near the site: the next three to five years will come with disruption. The decade after that should come with appreciation. If you are thinking about selling in the short term, pricing decisions will need to factor in construction fatigue as a headwind. If your horizon is ten years or longer, the development story surrounding your home is getting materially stronger.

Wondering what your home is worth in today's market? Call or text Eric at 949-430-7500 for a no-obligation valuation.

The Village Santa Ana Is One of the Biggest Redevelopment Stories in OC Right Now

A 17-acre site next to South Coast Plaza, 1,583 homes, a unanimous city council vote, and a development partnership between the family that built Orange County and one of the world's largest real estate firms. This project is not a proposal anymore. It is happening. If you are a buyer, a renter, or a homeowner anywhere in the South Coast corridor, understanding what is coming to this site is worth your time.

Questions about buying or renting near South Coast Plaza? Call or text Eric at 949-430-7500 or visit ocrealestateinc.com

Posted in Real Estate News
July 6, 2026

One Metro West: Costa Mesa Is About to Get Its Biggest New Housing Development in Decades

By Eric Engelbert

A 15-acre industrial site on Sunflower Avenue just north of the 405 Freeway is about to become something Costa Mesa has not seen in a long time: a brand-new mixed-use neighborhood with nearly 957 apartment homes, resort-style amenities, 6,000 square feet of retail, and the first new public park the city has added in over 20 years. The project is called One Metro West, and it has been in the works since 2019. It has cleared multiple approval hurdles, survived a heated community debate over density and voting rights, and had its design modified as recently as May 2026. A groundbreaking has not been officially announced as of this writing, but with final approvals now in place and a 2028 opening target, the development team appears to be close. Here is the full story and what it means if you are living in, buying in, or renting in central Orange County.

What Was There Before: A Warehouse Next to a Freeway

The 1683 Sunflower Avenue site has spent decades as industrial land. A 345,000-square-foot warehouse building currently sits on the property, partly occupied by Robinson Pharma, a contract pharmaceutical manufacturer. The 405 Freeway runs directly adjacent to the south, which adds noise and air quality considerations any residential developer would need to engineer around. On its eastern edge, the site sits just west of SoCo (South Coast Collection), the high-end design and dining district on Hyland Avenue known for its furniture showrooms and a food hall that includes some of Orange County's best restaurants. That walkable proximity to SoCo gives One Metro West a retail and lifestyle context that most apartment communities near freeways cannot claim.

What makes the site particularly compelling is its employment context. Anduril Industries, the defense technology company, has operated its headquarters just down Sunflower at 1400 Anduril (on the corner of Harbor Boulevard and Sunflower, in the former Los Angeles Times printing plant known as "The Press") since 2021. The campus spans 634,000 square feet across five buildings and is fully leased with 13 years remaining on Anduril's lease. The workforce is already there and already needs housing. Combined with the roughly 5,000 other employees working in the north Costa Mesa corridor, the demand for well-located rental housing near this site is established, not speculative.

Who Is Behind One Metro West?

The project is a joint venture between two well-established developers: Beverly Hills-based Rose Equities and San Diego-based Garden Communities CA. Rose Equities is a family-owned company that has been building owner-operated communities since 1949. Their portfolio spans Southern California and extends into markets like New York, where they paid $71 million for a former hotel site in Westchester County with plans for a 760-unit apartment complex. Rose Equities is also partnering with Garden Communities on a 272-unit project in Torrance. They are not a one-project developer, and they are not new to Orange County, holding membership in both the Newport Beach and Costa Mesa Chambers of Commerce.

Garden Communities CA is the operating partner with direct Orange County experience. They currently run two luxury apartment communities in Irvine: Volar Apartments at 1100 Volar near John Wayne Airport, and Metropolis, a contemporary community featuring a private bowling alley, rooftop pool, and high-end finishes. They also have a third Irvine project in the pipeline: Trilogy Gardens, a 876-unit, three-building community approved by the City of Irvine in the Irvine Business Complex. Garden Communities positions itself at the luxury end of the multifamily market, and their Irvine properties give a clear preview of the product quality and price point One Metro West will likely target.

The architect is AC Martin, a Los Angeles firm with roots going back to 1906. Their Orange County work includes the Garden Grove Civic Center Revitalization, which houses the Garden Grove Police Department. They are a serious institutional firm, not a trendy boutique. The building design for One Metro West is described as "timeless" with clean lines, natural materials, and a strong emphasis on the interplay between indoor and outdoor living, rooftop terraces, and social gathering spaces at multiple levels.

957 Apartments, Three Towers, and the First New Park in Costa Mesa in Over 20 Years

One Metro West will rise across three six- and seven-story buildings on a 15.23-acre site. The current approved plan calls for 957 total units, reduced from the original 1,057 following a project modification approved by the City on May 29, 2026. Of those, 106 units are designated affordable housing for households earning at the very low and low income levels, which the City has defined as annual household incomes of approximately $34,274 and $54,840. The remaining units are market-rate rentals.

The amenity package is the clearest signal of where Garden Communities is positioning this community in the market. Plans include an Equinox-style 24/7 fitness center, yoga and aerobics studio, a wellness room with oxygen stations and cryotherapy, and three resort-style saltwater swimming pools, one of which is a rooftop junior Olympic-sized pool. Multiple rooftop terraces are designed for both lounging and organized events. The 42,000-square-foot amenity and co-working building (modified from the original creative office concept) gives residents flexible workspace options on site. Unit sizes range from studios to larger multi-bedroom configurations across all three buildings.

The crown jewel of the public-facing portion of the project is a 1.7-acre park and event plaza, the first new park added to Costa Mesa in more than 20 years. The park is designed to host live music, outdoor performances, community events, and everyday recreation. A 6,000-square-foot specialty retail component will activate the street level. This combination of public park, retail, and community space is intentional: Rose Equities has framed One Metro West as a neighborhood asset for all of Costa Mesa, not just a residential complex for its tenants.

Five Years from Proposal to Groundbreaking: The Long Road to One Metro West

One Metro West has been navigating the approval process since 2019. The Costa Mesa City Council gave initial approval to the project on June 16, 2021. At that point, the development was expected to break ground in July 2022 and be fully complete by January 2026. Neither of those dates materialized.

The delays stemmed from a combination of legal challenges, regulatory hurdles, and a significant fight over whether Costa Mesa voters had the right to weigh in on the project. By mid-2024, reporting suggested construction would begin in 2025. As of early 2026, the project underwent a formal modification through California's CEQA environmental review process, reducing the unit count to 957 and converting the office component to a resident amenity and co-working building. That modified project received final CEQA approval on May 29, 2026. A groundbreaking has not been publicly announced as of this writing, but the modified approval clears the last major regulatory hurdle. With a 2028 target for the first residents to move in, construction would need to begin in the second half of 2026 to stay on schedule, given the three-year phased build-out timeline the developer has described.

The City of Costa Mesa estimates One Metro West will generate $350 million in economic impact and bring approximately 1,800 permanent jobs to the city. The community benefits package associated with the project is valued at roughly $68 million, nearly four times the city's annual capital budget. Development fees total approximately $6 million.

The Fight Over Density and the Right to Vote

One Metro West generated real community opposition. A group called "We Are Costa Mesa" organized against the project, circulating a petition and arguing that a seven-story, 1,050-plus-unit complex was too dense for the area, would strain city services, worsen traffic, and alter the character of the state streets neighborhood nearby. Those are legitimate concerns worth naming honestly in any discussion of the project.

The deeper grievance was procedural. Costa Mesa has a voter protection measure called Measure Y, enacted in 2016, which requires large-scale developments that exceed certain zoning thresholds to go before the city's voters for approval. When the City Council approved One Metro West in June 2021, that vote requirement was still technically in place. Then Measure K passed in 2022. Measure K exempted housing developments on commercially and industrially zoned land from the Measure Y voter approval requirement, specifically to comply with state housing laws that restrict cities from blocking housing through local ballot requirements. The Council used Measure K to re-approve One Metro West without a public vote. Opponents argued that Measure K stripped residents of their right to weigh in on the most significant development in their neighborhood in decades.

The opposition never gathered significant organized traction, and the approvals have held. The May 2026 project modification, which reduced the total unit count by 100 units and shifted the office component to resident amenity space, was at least partly responsive to feedback about the scale and programming of the development. Whether the reduction from 1,057 to 957 units meaningfully addresses the density concerns that drove the opposition is a matter of perspective.

What Will It Cost to Live There?

No pricing has been officially released. The project is not expected to welcome its first residents until 2028, and Garden Communities typically does not set rents until closer to lease-up. What we can do is look at the signals the project is sending and compare them to the current market.

When One Metro West was first presented to the public back in 2019, the developer estimated that studios would start at roughly $2,600 to $2,700 per month if they were leasing at that time. Since then, Costa Mesa rents have moved. Current 2026 market averages are approximately $2,130 for a studio, $2,599 for a one-bedroom, $3,181 for a two-bedroom, and $3,569 for a three-bedroom, according to RentCafe data.

The amenity package at One Metro West, rooftop pools, cryotherapy, Equinox-style fitness, co-working, resort-style pools, and event terraces, is firmly in the luxury tier. Garden Communities' existing Irvine properties Volar and Metropolis are high-end communities in a market where rents are already above Costa Mesa averages. Based on the comparable luxury positioning and the two-year period between now and opening, expect One Metro West to price above current Costa Mesa market averages, likely in the range of $2,500 to $3,000 for studios and $3,000 to $3,500 or higher for one-bedrooms at opening, depending on floor, view, and which building phase they are in.

The 106 affordable units will be priced below market for qualifying households. If you or someone you know earns in the $34,000 to $55,000 range annually and is interested in the affordable component, it will be worth monitoring the developer's waitlist process as the opening approaches.

What This Means for Central OC Buyers and Renters

For renters, One Metro West adds nearly 1,000 new units to a central OC market that has been supply-constrained for years. More supply, even at the luxury end, tends to put some downward pressure on asking rents across the submarket as existing properties compete for residents. The addition of a large workforce-adjacent community near Anduril and the rest of the north Costa Mesa employment corridor will also absorb demand that currently disperses into Irvine, Santa Ana, and the surrounding cities. That is a subtle but real benefit for renters looking anywhere in the 405 corridor.

For buyers, the development of a new mixed-use neighborhood on previously industrial land is generally a positive signal for surrounding property values over time. A well-designed community with a public park, retail, and a major employer footprint next door tends to stabilize and improve the desirability of the surrounding area. Costa Mesa has long been one of the better-value cities in Orange County for buyers who want proximity to Newport Beach and the coast without paying Newport Beach prices. That positioning is unlikely to change, and projects like One Metro West reinforce the narrative that Costa Mesa is actively investing in its future.

If you are considering buying or renting in Costa Mesa or the central OC corridor, the current market offers more time and negotiating room than buyers have had in several years. Homes are sitting longer, and sellers are more willing to negotiate on price and terms than they were in 2021 or 2022.

Browse homes for sale in Costa Mesa or explore all Orange County listings at ocrealestateinc.com

One Metro West Is Worth Watching

A project this size does not come together often in a built-out city like Costa Mesa. The developers have a strong Orange County track record, the architect has institutional credibility, and the location next to a growing tech and defense employment hub makes the demand case real. Whether you are a renter tracking your next apartment, a buyer watching neighborhood trends, or a homeowner curious about what a major new development means for your area, One Metro West is a story worth following as it moves from approvals toward groundbreaking.

Questions about buying or renting in Costa Mesa or central OC? Call or text Eric at 949-430-7500 or visit ocrealestateinc.com

Posted in Real Estate News
July 2, 2026

Gateway Village Irvine: 1,138 New Homes Break Ground in North Irvine

By Eric Engelbert

On June 23, 2026, the City of Irvine and Brookfield Residential broke ground on Gateway Village, a 70-acre residential community taking shape at Portola Parkway and Jeffrey Road in North Irvine. This is one of the more significant new housing announcements in Orange County in recent years, and the backstory of how it came together makes it an even better story than the headline numbers suggest. Here is everything you need to know about what is being built, who is building it, and what it means if you are considering buying in Irvine.

What Was There Before: A $285 Million Problem Solved

The northeast foothills of Irvine had a long-running issue that most people outside the immediate area did not know about. The All American Asphalt plant had been operating in that part of the city since the early 1990s. For years, nearby residents complained about air quality, odors, and the general impact of having a major industrial operation sitting in what should have been one of the most scenic stretches of North Irvine. Mayor Larry Agran described it plainly, calling it "the largest industrial polluter, not just in Irvine, but in the whole county."

In 2023, the City of Irvine bought the asphalt plant for $285 million and shut it down. That acquisition cleared the path for what is now Gateway Village and the adjacent Gateway Preserve. It was an expensive decision, but it transformed a chronic neighborhood complaint into what will become one of the most desirable addresses in North Irvine. The groundbreaking in June 2026 is the direct result of that 2023 investment.

A Public-Private Partnership: Irvine Company, Brookfield, and the City

Gateway Village is not a standard developer-buys-land-and-builds story. It came together through a public-private partnership between three major players. The City of Irvine acquired and removed the asphalt plant. The Irvine Company then dedicated 91 acres of land for the residential village and the extension of the Jeffrey Open Space Trail. The City selected Brookfield Residential as the development partner responsible for designing and building the homes.

Brookfield Residential is not a small regional builder. It is one of the largest homebuilders in North America, with a long track record in master-planned communities across California and the Southwest. The City's stated reasons for selecting Brookfield were its high-quality neighborhood design, attainable price points, and the thoughtful integration of affordable housing into the overall plan. The fact that the Irvine Company contributed the land rather than selling it at market rate is a meaningful piece of this story. It allowed the project to incorporate a genuine affordable housing component at a scale that would be difficult to finance if the land had been purchased at current Irvine prices.

What Is Being Built: 1,138 Homes Across Six Neighborhoods

Gateway Village will include 1,138 total homes spread across six distinct neighborhoods. Of those, 851 will be market-rate homes for sale and 287 will be affordable housing apartments, representing 25% of the total unit count. That affordable component is meaningful in a city where most new housing comes in well above what moderate-income households can reach.

The homes range from 1,050 to 2,600 square feet, with options spanning one to five bedrooms across multi-story layouts. That range is notable because it covers a wide spectrum of buyer needs, from smaller first or second homes to larger family configurations, all within the same master-planned community. Parks and recreational amenities are included in the site plan alongside the residential neighborhoods.

Pricing has not been released yet. The City described Brookfield's approach as offering "attainable price points," but specific numbers will not be public until model homes open, which is expected in summer 2027. If you want to be among the first notified when pricing comes out, that is something I can help with. I track new construction in Irvine closely and will have that information as soon as it is available.

Interested in new construction in Irvine? Browse what is available now at ocrealestateinc.com/irvine-real-estate-for-sale/new-construction/

The Gateway Preserve: 700 Acres of Open Space Next Door

What makes Gateway Village stand out from a typical Irvine new home community is what sits directly adjacent to it. The broader Gateway Project includes a 700-acre Gateway Preserve, overseen by the Irvine Ranch Conservancy, which will feature approximately 10 miles of new hiking and biking trails through preserved native landscapes and habitat mitigation areas.

The preserve serves as an entry point to the 20,000-acre Northern Open Space Preserve, connecting residents to Limestone Canyon, Black Star Canyon, and eventually the Cleveland National Forest. A new pedestrian bridge spanning Portola Parkway will extend the Jeffrey Open Space Trail into the preserve, linking Gateway Village directly to the broader trail network that runs through North Irvine.

For buyers who value proximity to outdoor recreation, this is a meaningful differentiator. Most Irvine communities offer parks and greenbelts within the development. Gateway Village offers a direct connection to one of the largest contiguous open space networks in all of Southern California.

Timeline: What to Expect and When

The groundbreaking was June 23, 2026. From there, the expected milestones look like this:

  • Summer 2027: First model homes open. This is typically when Brookfield will release pricing, floor plans, and begin taking interest lists or reservations for the first phases.
  • Early 2028: Community and open space features, including the Gateway Preserve access and trail connections, are expected to be open to the public.

That timeline means buyers interested in Gateway Village have roughly a year before they need to make any decisions, but interest lists for desirable Irvine communities tend to fill quickly. Brookfield projects in master-planned communities often have waitlists for premium lots well before model homes open. If this is on your radar, it is worth getting on a list sooner rather than waiting for the grand opening weekend.

What This Means for Buyers Looking at Irvine

Irvine is consistently ranked among the safest cities in America, has top-rated schools in the Irvine Unified School District, and remains one of the most in-demand real estate markets in all of Orange County. The challenge has always been inventory. Gateway Village adds over 850 market-rate homes to a city where supply has been chronically tight, and it does so in the northeast foothills, an area that has historically offered some of the most scenic settings in Irvine without the premium price tags of communities closer to the coast.

For buyers who have been priced out of coastal OC or who have been circling Irvine and waiting for the right opportunity, Gateway Village is worth watching closely. The combination of a quality builder, Irvine Company land, a City-backed project, and 700 acres of adjacent open space is not something that comes together often.

While you are waiting for Gateway Village to open its model homes, there are strong opportunities available in Irvine right now across a range of price points and property types. The current market offers more negotiating room than buyers had two or three years ago, and days on market have extended enough to allow for more deliberate decision-making.

Browse all Irvine homes for sale at ocrealestateinc.com/irvine-real-estate-for-sale/ or explore new construction options in Irvine available today.

I Am Watching This Project Closely

Gateway Village is the kind of development that does not happen very often in a city as built-out as Irvine. When a project combines this much new inventory, open space, an established builder, and a City-backed land contribution, it tends to move quickly once model homes open. If you want to be in the first wave of informed buyers when pricing is released in summer 2027, I would be glad to put you on my list and reach out the moment details are available.

Call or text Eric at 949-430-7500 or visit ocrealestateinc.com to explore Irvine listings now.
Posted in Real Estate News
July 2, 2026

The Best Places to Watch Fireworks in Orange County | Updated for 2026

By Eric Engelbert

The Fourth of July is one of the best times to be in Orange County. Beaches, harbors, hillside parks, and community fields all come alive with fireworks, music, food, and family events. This year carries extra meaning: 2026 marks the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence, and communities across OC are going bigger than usual. Whether you want a front-row oceanfront seat, a low-key community celebration, or a pet-friendly drone show alternative, here is your updated guide to the best Fourth of July events in Orange County for 2026.

Where to watch fireworks in Orange County on the Fourth of July

Coastal Fireworks Shows

Huntington Beach

Huntington Beach hosts one of the largest Independence Day celebrations on the West Coast. The multi-day festivities include a Surf City 5k run, a parade, and a pier festival. The grand finale is a fireworks show over the ocean, with views from the beach, the pier, and downtown. VIP seating is available for purchase. This is the big one if you want a true Southern California beach Fourth.

Laguna Beach

Watch fireworks from Monument Point at Heisler Park or Main Beach. The display kicks off at 9 p.m. against a stunning oceanfront backdrop. Parking is limited and fills quickly, so plan to arrive well before dark.

Newport Beach

The Newport Dunes Waterfront Resort hosts a full weekend of family-friendly activities including watersports, live music, food, and a fireworks show over the Back Bay. Reserve early for best access and viewing positions.

Dana Point

Fireworks are launched from a barge off Doheny State Beach with the harbor and coastline as your backdrop. New for 2026, the Condor Squadron is scheduled to fly over the coast in vintage World War II-era aircraft before the show, a fitting tribute in this America 250 year. Festivities begin mid-afternoon and fireworks start at 9 p.m.

Spotlight: Laguna Niguel Drone Show

Laguna Niguel returns with its popular drone show for 2026, having made the switch from traditional fireworks due to the city's Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zone classification. Over 400 synchronized drones light up the night sky at Crown Valley Park, choreographed to live patriotic music beginning at 9 p.m.

New this year is a Patriotic Flyover at 5:30 p.m. before the drone show. The full day of activities also includes the 43rd annual Pancake Breakfast starting at 7:30 a.m. and the 47th annual Run in the Park at 8 a.m. This is one of the most family-friendly and pet-friendly options in South OC, with none of the noise or fire risk of traditional fireworks. If you have never seen a large-scale drone show, this is worth making the trip for.

Community Celebrations

Anaheim

Anaheim Hills hosts a full day of events including a Firecracker 5k/10k run starting at 7 a.m., a Yankee Doodle dog show, a community parade, and live entertainment. Fireworks start at 9 p.m. Angel Stadium also hosts fireworks displays after every game across the full holiday weekend. Note that illegal fireworks carry steep fines in Anaheim, so stick to the official shows.

Mission Viejo

Mission Viejo throws one of South OC's biggest free Fourth of July celebrations, with live entertainment, rides, games, food trucks, and vendor booths leading up to the fireworks show. A great option for families who want a full-day event without the beach traffic.

San Juan Capistrano

At Marco Forster Middle School, families enjoy live music, food trucks, games, and a hometown-style fireworks show. This is one of South OC's most relaxed and community-focused Fourth celebrations.

Ladera Ranch

Start the day with the Freedom Run, then head to Founders Park for a community parade and festival. Evening fireworks cap off one of South OC's favorite neighborhood Fourth events.

Costa Mesa

The OC Fair and Event Center lights up the night on July 3rd with music, food, and fireworks. Bring lawn chairs and enjoy a relaxed celebration under the stars a day ahead of the holiday crowd.

La Habra

La Bonita Park's Fourth of July Spectacular features live music, kids' activities, and a fireworks finale. A solid neighborhood choice for a community-focused family evening.

Mountain Escapes

Big Bear Lake

Big Bear's 4th of July Fireworks Spectacular is launched over the lake and runs 30 to 40 minutes. Great viewing spots include Veterans Park, Pine Knot Landing, and Ski Beach. For a premium experience, purchase tickets to the "Above the Boom" event at Snow Summit for mountaintop views, dinner, and live music above the fireworks.

Lake Arrowhead

Lake Arrowhead Village hosts a massive show at 9 p.m. with daytime air shows, lakeside BBQs, and live music leading up to the fireworks. Parking fills quickly so early arrival is essential.

Tips for a Great Fourth of July

Arrive early. Most venues fill up hours before the fireworks start. Beach cities in particular have limited parking that disappears fast.

Bring the essentials. Blankets, chairs, sunscreen, snacks, and a portable phone charger will make your day significantly more comfortable.

Know the local laws. Many OC cities including Irvine, Laguna Beach, and Newport Beach ban all personal fireworks entirely. Others enforce strict fines for illegal use, including social host liability. When in doubt, leave the fireworks to the professionals.

Consider the drone shows. If you have pets, young children, or live in a fire-prone area, drone shows like the one in Laguna Niguel offer a spectacular and responsible alternative to traditional fireworks. The technology has improved dramatically and the shows are genuinely impressive.

Check start times. Most fireworks displays begin around 9 p.m. Give yourself at least 90 minutes to get parked and settled in coastal cities.

Happy Fourth of July from Orange County Real Estate, Inc.

From seaside fireworks to vintage aircraft flyovers and synchronized drone displays, 2026 brings an extra layer of meaning to Independence Day as the country marks 250 years. Wherever you celebrate, enjoy the holiday with the people who matter most. If you have questions about buying or selling a home in any of these communities, I am always glad to help.

Call or text Eric at 949-430-7500 or visit ocrealestateinc.com
Posted in Real Estate News
July 2, 2026

The 'Orange County Is Overvalued' Headline Is Misleading. Here Is What the Data Actually Shows.

By Eric Engelbert

Recent coverage in the San Diego Union-Tribune and other outlets cited the U.S. News Housing Market Index, a widely followed national study that ranks metro areas by how much of local income goes toward a mortgage payment. Southern California dominates that list. The Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim metropolitan statistical area, which includes much of Orange County, ranks fifth in the nation, with housing costs consuming roughly 66% of the area's median income. San Diego ranks fourth at 66.3%. The Bay Area is second. Every market in the top five is in California or Hawaii. Headlines framing this as an Orange County-specific crisis spread quickly. Before you read too much into them, it is worth understanding exactly what the study is measuring, what it is missing, and what the actual OC market data shows right now. Because "overvalued" and "headed for a crash" are two very different things, and conflating them does a disservice to anyone trying to make a real decision about buying or selling a home here.

What Does "Overvalued" Actually Mean in This Study?

The U.S. News Housing Market Index calculates overvaluation by measuring how much of the local area's median income goes toward a monthly mortgage payment. Back in early 2020, a typical homeowner with a fixed mortgage rate was spending less than 25% of their income on housing. By late 2024, that figure had climbed to nearly 36% nationally. In the LA-Orange County metro, it sits at roughly 66%. The study uses that payment-to-income ratio to rank metros from most to least stretched. The higher the percentage, the more "overvalued" the designation.

It is a reasonable framework for many markets. But it has a significant blind spot when applied to Orange County, and it produces a misleading number for a very specific demographic reason.

The Income Number Is Not Telling the Full Story

Here is what these studies are measuring: county median household income, which in Orange County sits at approximately $116,289. That sounds healthy. But the number masks a critical detail about who is actually living here versus who is actually buying.

Orange County has a substantial and growing population of homeowners over age 65. According to census data, roughly 15 to 16 percent of Orange County residents are 65 or older, and a meaningful share of all owner-occupied housing units are held by retirees. The median household income for OC residents aged 65 and over is approximately $74,774, the second lowest of any age group in the county. These are people living on Social Security, pensions, investment distributions, and retirement savings. Their taxable income is low by design. But most of them own their homes outright, or with minimal remaining mortgage debt. They are not the buyers these studies are trying to analyze, and yet their incomes pull the county median down and make the price-to-income ratio look more distorted than it actually is for the working households who are in the market.

When you measure OC home prices against the incomes of working-age dual-income households, tech employees, healthcare professionals, finance workers, and the small business owners who actually represent active buyer demand in this county, the picture looks considerably different than the headline suggests.

What Actually Drives Orange County Home Prices

The price of a home is not set by the county median income. It is set by the people competing to buy that home on any given day. And in Orange County, several structural forces have kept demand consistently high regardless of what interest rates or macro headlines are doing.

Coastal California has a physical supply constraint that no amount of policy or market correction will undo. There is simply no more land to build on in Newport Beach, Laguna Beach, Huntington Beach, or Dana Point. The cities are built out. What gets built in the remaining developable areas, like the Westminster Mall redevelopment or new projects in Irvine, adds some supply but nowhere near enough to fundamentally shift the demand picture.

Orange County also draws buyers from a wide geographic pool. Buyers relocating from San Francisco, Silicon Valley, or Los Angeles sometimes arrive with significant equity or cash from a prior sale, comparing OC prices not to their OC income, but to what they just sold in another expensive market. International buyers and multigenerational households further diversify the demand base in ways a simple income-to-price model does not capture.

Employment in OC remains anchored by industries that pay well: healthcare, aerospace and defense, finance, technology, and professional services. These are not minimum wage jobs being priced out by a high cost of living. They are the industries that produce the buyers who are absorbing OC inventory right now.

What the 2026 Market Data Actually Shows

Setting aside the valuation debate for a moment, here is what is actually happening in the OC market as of mid-2026.

Active inventory is running around 4,500 to 4,800 homes, which represents improvement from the historic lows of 2021 and 2022, but is still well below pre-pandemic norms. The current months of supply for detached homes sits at approximately 2.5 months, compared to a national average of 3.5 months. That means OC still leans toward a seller's market in the single-family segment, even as the overall pace of the market has slowed.

Median prices have softened slightly year over year. Detached homes came in around $1.4 million median in late 2025, down roughly 5.7% year over year. Attached homes (condos and townhomes) came in near $810,000, down about 2.9%. These are not the numbers of a market in freefall. They are the numbers of a market that ran very hot for several years and is now finding a more sustainable level.

One of the most telling data points: condo and townhome sales jumped 41.4% year over year. Buyers are not leaving the market. They are adjusting to what is available and affordable within OC, and the attached home segment is absorbing significant demand as a result. Homes are sitting on the market an average of 41 days, up about 29% year over year. That is not a red flag. That is buyers taking a breath and being more deliberate, which benefits anyone who is patient and prepared.

Affordability Problem vs. Overvalued Market: Two Different Things

Orange County absolutely has an affordability problem. There is no honest way to argue otherwise. With current mortgage rates around 6.68% and median detached home prices well above a million dollars, the monthly carrying cost on a new purchase is historically high relative to county income. Estimates suggest only around 18% of OC households can qualify for a median-priced home under current conditions. That is a serious issue for first-time buyers and middle-income families trying to enter the market.

But affordability pressure is not the same thing as overvaluation in the bubble sense. A market is overvalued in the dangerous sense when prices have risen beyond what any reasonable demand can support, and a correction back to fundamentals is both likely and significant. OC prices are high, but they are high for reasons that are structural, geographic, and durable. Coastal California has never been "affordable" in any modern era. What has changed is the combination of rate increases and pandemic-era price acceleration compressing buyers from both directions at once.

A correction back to 2019 prices in Orange County would require either a dramatic increase in supply, a sustained collapse in demand, or both. Nothing in the current data suggests either of those is imminent. What we are more likely to see is a continued period of modest price adjustments and slower appreciation while incomes gradually catch up, which is a very different outcome than "the 2nd most overvalued market in the country" implies to most readers.

For Buyers: There Is Still Real Value in Orange County

This is not a market to be afraid of. It is a market that rewards preparation and clear thinking about what you need.

The attached home segment, condos and townhomes in cities like Anaheim, Fullerton, Garden Grove, Orange, and Costa Mesa, offers entry points that are meaningfully more accessible than the single-family median. With sales in that category up 41% year over year, more buyers are discovering that ownership in OC at a reasonable price point is achievable if you are open to the right product type.

Inland OC cities consistently offer stronger value relative to coastal zip codes without sacrificing the school quality, infrastructure, and access to employment that make OC worth buying into. The days of being pressured into waiving inspections and bidding $200,000 over asking are gone in most of the market right now. With homes sitting an average of 41 days before going into escrow, buyers have time to be thoughtful. That is a meaningful shift from where we were two years ago, and it is an advantage worth using.

For buyers who are ready and qualified, waiting for prices to drop dramatically based on a "overvalued" headline is a risky strategy in a market where structural demand is not going away and inventory is still constrained. The right home at the right price exists right now. The question is whether you are in a position to find it.

Want to know which OC cities and neighborhoods offer the best value right now? Read the weekly OC Housing Report or call or text Eric at 949-430-7500.

For Sellers: What This Means for Your Home

If you own a home in Orange County and you read a headline calling this one of the most overvalued markets in the country, the immediate reaction might be to worry about what happens next. Here is a more grounded read on the situation.

Your home's value is being supported by the same structural forces that have kept OC prices elevated for decades: low inventory, consistent demand from well-paid professionals, and the geographic reality of coastal Southern California. The slight year-over-year price dips in the current data reflect the interest rate environment compressing buyer purchasing power, not a fundamental breakdown in demand for OC real estate.

What matters most for sellers right now is accurate pricing. Homes that are priced to reflect current conditions, not peak 2022 conditions, are still selling. Homes that are overpriced are sitting. The 41-day average days on market is a market telling sellers to be realistic about where buyers are right now. A well-priced, well-presented home in a desirable OC city is not struggling. It is just taking slightly longer to find the right buyer than it would have in 2021.

If you are considering selling and wondering whether now is the right time, the answer depends more on your personal timeline and what you are moving into than on whether OC is technically overvalued by an academic model built around county median income.

The Bottom Line on the Overvalued Ranking

Orange County is expensive. It has always been expensive. The payment-to-income model that drives these rankings is a useful macro tool, but it measures the wrong income for the wrong population when applied to a county where a large share of homeowners are retirees on fixed incomes who bought their homes decades ago. It also lumps OC in with the broader LA metro, a region where income, density, and housing stock look very different city by city. The buyers who are actually competing for OC homes today are, on average, higher earners than the county median suggests, and they are competing for supply that remains constrained well below pre-pandemic levels.

Affordability is a real and serious issue for entry-level buyers. The gap between what OC homes cost and what a median household earns is real and documented. But that is a different conversation from whether OC home values are about to collapse. The data does not support that outcome. What it supports is a market that is cooling, recalibrating, and offering better opportunities for prepared buyers than we have seen in several years.

Questions about where OC values are headed? Call or text Eric at 949-430-7500 or visit ocrealestateinc.com.

Posted in Real Estate News
July 1, 2026

Hoag Buys the Ziggurat: The Full Story Behind Orange County's Most Unusual Real Estate Deal

By Eric Engelbert

If you have driven through Laguna Niguel on the 5 or the 73, you have seen the Ziggurat. It is hard to miss. The massive stepped pyramid sits on a hillside at 24000 Avila Road, a million square feet on 92 acres, one of the most recognizable buildings in all of Orange County. For the last several years it has been sitting mostly empty, owned by the federal government and quietly deteriorating. In June 2026, Hoag Memorial Hospital Presbyterian closed on its purchase of the building for $207 million. Getting there was anything but straightforward. And what happens next matters not just for healthcare in South OC, but for the cost of that healthcare, and for the real estate around it.

What Is the Ziggurat?

The official name is the Chet Holifield Federal Building, named after a longtime California congressman. But nobody calls it that. The nickname comes from the ancient Mesopotamian stepped pyramid temples, and the resemblance is unmistakable. The building was designed by William Pereira, the same architect responsible for the Transamerica Pyramid in San Francisco and the original UC Irvine campus. It was completed in 1971 and originally housed thousands of federal employees.

Over the decades, federal tenant headcount shrank and the building was never efficiently utilized for its size. By the time the General Services Administration (GSA) listed it for sale, it was largely vacant, generating no revenue and accumulating repair costs. The GSA estimated that selling the property would save taxpayers more than $340 million in long-term repair and upgrade costs. The Trump administration pushed to sell off underused federal properties nationwide, and the Ziggurat was a prime candidate.

The Auction: 157 Bids, a Collusion Allegation, and a Deal That Fell Apart

The GSA put the building on the market with starting bids at $70 million in 2024. What followed was one of the more unusual bidding wars in Orange County real estate history. Over the course of roughly five months, two serious buyers submitted a combined 157 bids against each other: Hoag Memorial Hospital Presbyterian and a team made up of Jeff Pintar of San Juan Capistrano-based Pintar Investment Company and Cameron Hildreth of Hilco Development Services.

Pintar and Hilco were not medical operators. Their stated plan was a large-scale demolish-and-rebuild mixed-use project: residential, office, and retail buildings across the 92-acre site. Hildreth was direct about the building itself, telling the Business Journal "We're going to knock it down. It never served its purpose." They also told reporters they were open to having a hospital on the property "with the right partner." That last line becomes very relevant in a moment.

In October 2024, Pintar and Hilco won the auction at $177 million and put down a $17.7 million deposit, with the remaining balance due April 24, 2025. Then, according to Hoag, something went wrong. During the bidding process, Pintar allegedly approached Hoag and suggested they "work together instead of against each other" rather than continuing to compete. The implication, based on what Pintar had publicly said about their plans, appears to be that they wanted Hoag as the medical anchor tenant while Pintar built everything else around them. Hoag refused, reported the contact as a violation of GSA auction rules, and sued the GSA in November 2024.

On March 10, 2025, the GSA cancelled the $177 million deal with Pintar and Hilco entirely and awarded the property to Hoag instead. Hoag dismissed their lawsuit on March 20, the day after the award was confirmed. Hilco vowed to fight but could not prevent the transfer. The final purchase closed June 30, 2026 at $207 million, more than Pintar's winning bid, reflecting where Hoag had been bidding before being outbid in the auction.

Will the Ziggurat Be Preserved or Demolished?

One of the most common questions after the sale: is Hoag going to tear it down? The honest answer is that nobody outside of Hoag knows, and Hoag has not said. But the terms of the sale tell you something important.

When the GSA first auctioned the building in 2022 and 2023, the sale included a mandatory Conservation and Preservation Easement requiring the buyer to protect the building's historic character. That auction got zero bids. For the 2024 re-auction, GSA removed the easement requirement entirely. In its place, a $2 million mitigation fund was negotiated as a condition of sale. That fund is now with the Orange County Community Foundation and will be used for historic preservation efforts elsewhere in the county. It is compensation for the loss of the building's protection, not a guarantee of it.

Hoag's entity, Laguna Ridge Healthcare Development, LLC, confirmed to GSA before closing that it will not execute a Conservation and Preservation Easement for the property. The Ziggurat has no legal protection from demolition.

What GSA did require was documentation of the building's history. Griffin Enright Architects and Architectural Resources Group completed a HABS Level II architectural survey, producing archival-quality drawings and photographs. The original design drawings, the building's scale model, and the design charrette report are being transferred to the Laguna Niguel Historical Society. The building may not survive, but the record of it will.

Preserve Orange County and Docomomo-US, the organization dedicated to preserving mid-century modern architecture, both have the Chet Holifield Federal Building on their endangered lists. Docomomo still classifies the building as "Threatened." Hilco, the competing bidder, was blunt about their plans: "We're going to knock it down. It never served its purpose." Hoag has said nothing on the subject. Silence is not preservation.

Given Hoag's purpose for the site, a phased redevelopment is more likely than an outright demolition. The 92-acre site is large enough for a full campus rethink, and some portions of the existing structure may be repurposed while others are replaced with purpose-built medical facilities. But whatever Hoag ultimately announces, the iconic stepped pyramid silhouette that has defined the Laguna Niguel skyline since 1971 is not guaranteed to be part of it.

$207 Million Is Just the Beginning

The purchase price is the headline number, but it is not the full picture. Hoag is simultaneously spending $1 billion on expansions in Irvine and opened a new 20,000 square foot health center in San Clemente in mid-2025. The Ziggurat acquisition is the capstone of a very deliberate geographic strategy: Hoag has stated publicly that its goal is to have a healthcare facility within 10 minutes of every Orange County household.

To put the scale in perspective: this is a nonprofit hospital system spending over $1.2 billion on real estate and construction within a relatively short window, plus whatever it costs to retrofit or replace the Ziggurat itself for medical use. That $340 million in taxpayer savings the GSA cited reflects what the federal government would have spent maintaining the building. The actual cost of transforming a 1970s federal office pyramid into a functioning 21st-century medical campus will be its own significant number, and Hoag has not publicly detailed those plans yet.

Healthcare systems do not absorb those capital costs quietly. They pass them on through higher facility fees, elevated service charges, and contractual pressure on insurance carriers. This is one of the structural reasons healthcare costs in OC continue to rise, and the Ziggurat is a vivid example of the scale of investment now required to deliver modern medical care.

Why South OC Needs This

The Ziggurat purchase did not happen in a vacuum. South Orange County has had a shrinking healthcare footprint for years. MemorialCare closed its San Clemente hospital back in 2016, leaving a gap in the southernmost part of the county that has never been fully filled. Patients in South OC dealing with serious emergencies have had limited nearby options, often requiring longer transports to Hoag's Newport Beach campus, Providence Mission in Mission Viejo, or Saddleback Medical Center in Laguna Hills.

Hoag and Providence have been in a quiet race to claim South OC. Providence Mission is investing $712 million in new South OC facilities. Hoag's combination of the San Clemente health center and now the Ziggurat site positions them to cover the corridor from the mid-county down to the southern tip. For residents of Laguna Niguel, Mission Viejo, Aliso Viejo, San Juan Capistrano, and Dana Point, this competition could meaningfully improve access to care over the next several years.

The Laguna Beach ER: A Crisis That Makes the Ziggurat More Urgent

While Hoag is building out, another piece of the South OC healthcare picture is quietly collapsing. Providence Mission Hospital Laguna Beach, the small community hospital that has served coastal Laguna for decades, is facing an existential problem. The facility is nearly 70 years old and would need approximately $300 million in seismic retrofitting by 2030 to comply with California's mandatory earthquake safety standards, plus an estimated $50 million to replace aging plumbing and electrical systems. That is $350 million to bring a small community hospital up to code.

Providence has indicated it cannot justify that investment, and announced plans to close the emergency room and shift the Laguna Beach campus toward urgent care and outpatient services only. The ER currently handles roughly 17,000 visits per year. When surveyed, 88% of Laguna Beach residents said having a 24/7 emergency room was important to them. The city created an ad hoc committee and action plan in response, and as of mid-2026 the situation remains unresolved, though the direction is not encouraging for ER advocates.

It is also worth noting what the Laguna Beach facility could not do even before this crisis. Patients experiencing a stroke or heart attack were already being transported out, to Hoag in Newport Beach or to "Big Mission" in Mission Viejo, because the Laguna Beach campus simply was not equipped to handle those emergencies. The closure of the ER would eliminate even the stabilization function the facility currently provides.

This is exactly the kind of gap the Ziggurat site is positioned to address. A major Hoag medical campus at 24000 Avila Road in Laguna Niguel sits within reasonable distance of both the Laguna Beach coastal communities and the broader South OC corridor. Hoag has not announced specific services planned for the site, but the geography makes its strategic purpose clear.

What This Means for Your Medical Bills and Your Insurance

Here is the part that does not get enough attention. When a health system spends $207 million on land, $1 billion on construction, and hundreds of millions more retrofitting or replacing a 1970s pyramid, those costs do not disappear. They get built into the cost structure of every procedure, every ER visit, every lab draw, and every overnight stay at that facility for the next several decades.

Hospital facility fees, which are the charges layered on top of doctor fees simply for using the building, are one of the least-discussed drivers of rising healthcare costs in California. A new or substantially renovated campus commands premium facility fees that reflect the capital investment behind it. Insurance carriers negotiate rates with these systems, and when a dominant regional system like Hoag commands more geographic coverage and fewer competitors, their negotiating leverage increases. Premiums follow.

None of this is a criticism of Hoag's expansion. Orange County genuinely needs more healthcare capacity, and private investment is filling a void that California's regulatory and seismic environment has made increasingly expensive. But for homeowners, renters, employers, and families in OC, the Ziggurat purchase is a reminder that the healthcare market in this county is being reshaped in ways that will show up in your insurance statement long before they show up in a new building on Avila Road.

What It Means for Real Estate in the Area

A major medical campus is generally positive for surrounding property values, particularly for commercial real estate, medical office buildings, and multifamily housing. Healthcare workers, visiting patients, and medical support businesses all create consistent demand for nearby housing and services. The 92-acre Ziggurat site is large enough that Hoag's buildout will likely reshape the character of that stretch of Avila Road over the next decade.

For homeowners near the site in Laguna Niguel, the short-term picture involves construction activity and traffic adjustment, while the long-term picture is a well-funded anchor institution with stable employment driving neighborhood demand. Medical campuses do not close and move to Texas. They generate payroll and patient traffic for generations.

On the flip side, the ongoing uncertainty around the Laguna Beach hospital campus may create near-term softness in the immediate area around the Mission Hospital Laguna Beach site as the community and Providence work through what happens to that property. If the ER closes and the campus shifts to outpatient only, the land use questions around a 70-year-old hospital building in coastal Laguna Beach become interesting from a real estate standpoint. That is a situation worth watching closely.

If you are curious how these changes might affect your home's value or you are considering buying or selling in South OC, I am glad to talk through what the data looks like right now.

South OC Is Being Reshaped

The Ziggurat sale is one of the more consequential transactions in Orange County in recent memory, not just for healthcare but for the communities that surround it. The story is still developing, and the full scope of Hoag's plans for the site has not been announced. I will be following this closely and updating as more details become public.

Questions about South OC real estate? Call or text Eric at 949-430-7500 or visit ocrealestateinc.com.

Posted in Real Estate News
July 1, 2026

California Unemployment 2026: What the Numbers Show and What It Means for Real Estate

By Eric Engelbert

California's unemployment rate has been getting attention lately, with some figures circulating that are significantly higher than what the official data actually shows. This post looks at what the numbers really say, how California compares to other major states, and what is driving a job market that has consistently lagged the national average for years. There is no single answer, and anyone who tells you there is probably has a political point to make. The reality is a combination of policy choices, business decisions, and structural shifts in the economy that have been building for a long time.

All unemployment figures in this post are seasonally adjusted and sourced directly from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, April 2026 release. The BLS is an independent federal statistical agency whose methodology has not changed with administrations.

What the Numbers Actually Show

California's unemployment rate as of April 2026 was 5.3 percent, seasonally adjusted. That is down slightly from 5.4 percent a year earlier, but still well above the national rate of 4.3 percent. The 10 percent figure that has been circulating on social media does not appear in any current government data from either state or federal sources. The last time California unemployment was near 10 percent was during the Great Recession, and the COVID peak hit 16.1 percent in April 2020.

5.3 percent is elevated, and it is worth understanding. But context matters, and exaggerated numbers make it harder to have an honest conversation about what is actually going on.

State April 2026 Rate April 2025 Rate Change
California 5.3% 5.4% -0.1
Illinois 5.1% 4.5% +0.6
Florida 4.8% 3.7% +1.1
New York 4.6% 4.1% +0.5
Texas 4.3% 4.1% +0.2
National Average 4.3% 4.3% 0.0
South Dakota (lowest) 2.2% 2.0% +0.2

A few things stand out in this comparison. Texas sits right at the national average and has held relatively steady, which is notable given how much business migration into Texas has been reported. Florida jumped a full 1.1 percentage points over the year, one of the largest increases of any state, which raises its own questions about whether that growth story is starting to show cracks. Illinois and New York are both elevated but still below California. And states with very low unemployment, like South Dakota and North Dakota, tend to have small, less diversified economies that behave differently from major population centers.

The Cost of Doing Business in California

California is one of the most expensive states in the country to employ people, and that gap has been widening. As of January 1, 2026, the statewide minimum wage rose to $16.90 per hour, with another round of local increases effective July 1, 2026. Fast food workers are covered by a separate $20 per hour floor. Healthcare workers have their own wage schedule that goes higher still. In cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco, local ordinances push wages above the statewide floor across a range of industries.

Higher wages are not inherently a problem. Workers earning more money spend more money locally, which supports the broader economy. But for employers operating on thin margins, particularly in retail, hospitality, food service, and light manufacturing, a rapid rise in the wage floor creates real pressure. Some reduce hours. Some accelerate automation. Some close locations. The hotel industry in Southern California saw significant layoffs in 2024 and 2025 tied directly to rising labor costs coming out of contract negotiations and new wage requirements.

Beyond wages, California added hundreds of new employment law requirements in 2025 and 2026 alone, covering expanded leave protections, pay equity reporting, personnel file requirements, independent contractor rules, and payroll tax obligations. Compliance costs real money, and for smaller employers, it often means choosing between hiring and staying compliant.

Tech Jobs and the White Collar Exodus

For most of the past two decades, California's high unemployment rate was partly offset by the sheer dominance of Silicon Valley. Tech employment kept the state's upper end of the income spectrum strong even when other sectors struggled. That cushion has eroded.

Major companies have relocated headquarters or significant operations out of California in recent years. Tesla and SpaceX moved to Texas. Oracle relocated to Austin. Chevron announced a move to Texas. Realtor.com moved to Austin. These are not fringe companies, they are the kinds of employers who bring thousands of well-paying jobs and the ecosystem of vendors and services that surrounds them.

The reasons companies cite consistently include high taxes, the cost of office space and housing for employees, the regulatory environment, and the quality of life concerns that affect talent retention. Texas and Florida in particular have offered significant incentives, lower taxes, and a faster permitting environment to attract relocating businesses.

California still produces more tech innovation than anywhere else in the world, and the state is home to companies that are not going anywhere. But the net trend in tech employment has been negative, and the jobs that leave tend to be the kinds of jobs that anchor entire neighborhoods.

Low Income Jobs and the Minimum Wage Question

One of the harder questions in this debate is whether California's rising minimum wage is directly cutting lower income jobs. The honest answer is that economists genuinely disagree, and the evidence is mixed depending on the industry, the region, and the time frame you look at.

What is clear is that the fastest job losses in California in recent years have been concentrated in sectors where wage costs are a large portion of total expenses, particularly food service, retail, and hospitality. Whether those jobs disappeared because of the minimum wage, because of automation that would have happened anyway, because of reduced consumer spending from people leaving the state, or some combination of all three is difficult to isolate. But the pattern is real, and the timing tracks closely with the accelerated minimum wage increases that began in 2022 and 2023.

California has also seen net outmigration of over 200,000 people between 2024 and 2025, and the people leaving tend to be working and middle class households who found the cost of living unworkable. Fewer residents means less local spending, which in turn means less demand for the workers who serve them. The pattern of who is leaving and where they are going is worth understanding on its own, and this post covers California's migration trends in more detail.

Is It the Government or the Companies?

This is the question that tends to get answered based on what you already believe, so it is worth trying to be straightforward about what the evidence actually supports.

On the government side: California has made a deliberate policy choice to prioritize worker protections, higher wages, and environmental and regulatory standards over business-friendly conditions. That choice has real costs. Employers operating in California face a compliance burden and cost structure that is materially higher than most competing states. When a business looking to expand or relocate can achieve similar outcomes at lower cost in Texas or Nevada, many will take that option. That is not a conspiracy, it is a rational business decision that policy in Sacramento has consistently made easier to justify.

On the business side: companies that leave California for incentive packages from other states are making short-term financial decisions that affect thousands of workers and the communities they live in. Some of that is legitimate business management. Some of it is opportunistic, taking advantage of bidding wars between states that ultimately transfer tax burdens from corporations onto individual residents in the destination state. The workers who lose jobs when a headquarters moves do not always have the option to follow.

The more useful question than blame is what the consequences are. California is running a projected budget deficit of $50 to $70 billion for 2025 and 2026, a stark reversal from a $97 billion surplus in 2021 and 2022. A state that is simultaneously losing businesses, losing residents, and losing tax base while adding regulatory requirements is creating a compounding problem that does not resolve quickly.

If Companies Are Leaving, Where Do the Jobs Come From?

This is the right question, and the answer is more nuanced than the headlines suggest. California is not hollowing out uniformly. What is happening is closer to a split, where the high end of the economy is holding and in some areas growing, while the middle and lower end is under pressure from rising costs and outmigration of employers who rely on lower wage labor.

The sectors that are staying and growing in California include artificial intelligence, where California captures an extraordinary share of the national venture capital market (roughly 70 percent of all U.S. venture funding in early 2025 went to California companies), aerospace and defense, advanced manufacturing, biotech and life sciences, and entertainment. These are industries that are difficult to replicate elsewhere because of the talent concentration, the research university ecosystem, and decades of infrastructure investment that other states cannot easily match.

What California is losing is the employer base that runs on thin margins: retail, food service, light manufacturing, and hospitality, sectors where wage floors and compliance costs have made the math increasingly difficult. A $20 minimum wage in fast food, for example, accelerates the shift to automated ordering and smaller staff that was already underway. Those jobs do not move to Texas, they largely disappear entirely. And the workers who held them are left competing for a smaller pool of available positions.

The practical result is a state that remains an economic powerhouse at the top of the income scale while creating real hardship at the bottom, and a shrinking middle that has been leaving at the rate of over 200,000 people per year. California has the fourth largest GDP of any nation on earth, at $4.25 trillion as of 2025. That number is real and it is growing. But GDP does not tell you whether the person who drives to work past a dozen vacant storefronts is better or worse off than they were five years ago.

The Outlook: Things May Get Worse Before They Get Better

The forecasts from independent economic institutions, not Sacramento and not Washington, paint a consistent picture. According to the UCLA Anderson Forecast, California's unemployment rate is expected to peak somewhere in the 6.0 to 6.2 percent range in the near term before beginning a recovery in late 2026 and more meaningful improvement in 2027. The California Association of Realtors projects unemployment rising to 5.8 percent for the full year 2026, with nonfarm job growth of just 0.3 percent, barely enough to keep pace with population. By 2027, the average is projected to move back toward the mid-to-lower 5 percent range.

That means, broadly speaking, that the California job market is likely to get slightly softer before it stabilizes, with the recovery delayed rather than cancelled. The factors driving that softness, tariffs, federal spending reductions, elevated business costs, and ongoing outmigration of employers, are not expected to resolve quickly. But California has come back from deeper holes than this. The post-COVID recovery from 16 percent unemployment happened faster than most analysts expected, and the structural advantages of the state's economy, talent, capital, and innovation density, do not disappear because a handful of high-profile companies moved their headquarters to Austin.

The more legitimate long-term concern is whether the budget math holds together. A state running a $50 to $70 billion deficit while simultaneously adding regulatory costs to employers is not in a sustainable position. At some point, something has to give, either in the form of policy changes that make California more competitive, or in a continued slow erosion of the employer base that makes the deficit harder to close. That is the structural tension that will define the next five years of California's economy more than any single company's relocation announcement.

What This Means for Real Estate Now and in the Future

For anyone buying, selling, or holding real estate in California, the employment picture matters in ways that are both direct and indirect. Here is how to think through it at different time horizons.

Right now: The California Association of Realtors is projecting a median home price of $905,000 for 2026, up 3.6 percent from 2025. Home sales are expected to increase modestly, about 2 percent, to 274,400 units statewide. Active listings are projected to be up nearly 10 percent, meaning more supply than buyers have had in years. That combination of modest price appreciation and improving inventory is actually a healthier market than what California experienced during the post-COVID frenzy, and it reflects a market that is stabilizing rather than crashing.

The risk pockets: ATTOM's Q1 2026 housing risk report flags California counties as among the higher-risk markets in the country as unemployment and foreclosures tick upward. That risk is not uniform. It is concentrated in areas with higher proportions of lower income households and industries under wage and cost pressure. Coastal Orange County, with its concentration of higher income buyers and limited housing supply, is in a different position than, say, the Inland Empire or parts of the Central Valley.

The buyer pool: Rising unemployment does not immediately collapse home prices in high-demand markets, but it does reduce the depth of the buyer pool over time. Buyers who are employed but uncertain about their job security pull back. Lenders tighten qualifying standards when unemployment trends upward. Move-up buyers who need to sell first become more cautious. All of these forces slow transaction volume before they affect prices, which is why watching employment data is actually a leading indicator for real estate, not a lagging one.

Longer term (2027 and beyond): If the economic forecasts are correct and California begins a meaningful recovery in 2027, real estate demand should follow. The state still has a structural housing shortage that has been building for decades. Pent-up demand from people who wanted to move but held back during a period of high rates and uncertainty will not disappear. The California market has historically rewarded buyers who purchased during periods of uncertainty and held through the recovery. That pattern is not guaranteed to repeat, but the underlying supply and demand dynamics that have driven long-term appreciation in desirable California markets have not fundamentally changed.

What this means for Orange County specifically: Orange County has consistently held its value better than most California markets during downturns because of its employer mix, its desirability as a place to live, and the income level of its residents. The same forces driving statewide unemployment, tech job losses, business outmigration, and rising costs, are real here too but are buffered by aerospace, healthcare, finance, and a significant base of self-employed and ownership-class buyers who are less exposed to payroll unemployment than the figures suggest.

Look at the employer base that anchors Orange County and you can see why the market behaves differently than the statewide numbers imply. Boeing, Raytheon, and a network of aerospace and defense subcontractors provide stable, well-paying employment that does not relocate easily. Hoag, CHOC, Kaiser, and the broader healthcare system employ tens of thousands of people in jobs that are not going to Texas. Financial services, insurance, and professional services firms cluster in Irvine and Newport Beach and serve national and global clients, insulating them from purely local economic conditions. Add to that a large population of business owners, retirees, and equity-rich homeowners who drive real estate demand independent of the monthly jobs report, and you have a market that simply behaves differently than the headline California unemployment number would suggest.

That said, Orange County is not immune. When statewide unemployment rises, it shows up in the market in a few specific ways that buyers and sellers should track. First, move-up buyers become more cautious. A household where one spouse works in a sector that is contracting will hold off on a purchase or a trade-up even if their income is currently stable, because uncertainty is its own form of constraint. Second, the entry-level segment, which in Orange County starts around $700,000 to $800,000, tends to feel softness first when lending standards tighten in response to rising unemployment. Lenders get conservative before conditions actually deteriorate. Third, rental demand tends to rise when ownership becomes less accessible, which matters if you hold investment property in the county.

The long view on Orange County real estate is that scarcity of supply has historically been the dominant factor. This is a built-out, coastal county with limited land for new development, persistent in-migration from higher-priced markets to the north, and a lifestyle that commands a premium most buyers are willing to pay. Rising unemployment in Fresno or Sacramento affects the statewide data. It does not change the fundamental supply and demand equation for a well-located home in Irvine, Newport Beach, or Laguna Niguel. That distinction matters when you are making a decision about whether to buy, sell, or hold.

Want to understand what the market is doing in your specific neighborhood right now? Call or text Eric at 949-430-7500 or view the Orange County Housing Report.

Posted in Real Estate News
June 29, 2026

Westminster Mall Redevelopment 2026: Bolsa Pacific Groundbreaking, Costs, and What It Means for Homeowners

By Eric Engelbert

Westminster Mall Redevelopment: From Plan to Groundbreaking

I originally wrote about the Westminster Mall redevelopment back in 2023, when the city had just approved a plan for the site and the project was still mostly a vision on paper. A lot has changed since then. The mall closed its doors, the site changed hands, and in April 2026 the developer broke ground on what is now a fully named, fully funded project. Here is an updated, complete look at where things actually stand.

The Project Now Has a Name: Bolsa Pacific at Westminster

The redevelopment is officially branded Bolsa Pacific at Westminster, a mixed-use community planned across 83.3 acres on the former mall site. The total project is valued at approximately $2.5 billion at full build out.

It is worth understanding the difference between two numbers that get used somewhat interchangeably in news coverage. The City of Westminster's 2022 site plan set a maximum limit of up to 3,000 residential units, 600,000 square feet of retail, and 9.5 acres of parks. That limit is not the same as the actual project being built. Bolsa Pacific, the real proposal moving forward, comes in smaller than that maximum on every measure. Explore Westminster homes near the site.

The Breakdown: Homes, Apartments, Retail, and More

Bolsa Pacific is planned for 2,250 total residential units, split roughly as follows:

  • Approximately 860 for-sale homes and townhomes
  • About 1,200 market-rate apartments
  • Roughly 225 to 228 affordable housing units (this number varies slightly depending on the source, the official project site cites 228, while most news coverage cites 225)

On the commercial side, the plan includes 210,000 to 220,000-plus square feet of retail and dining space, anchored by a next-generation Target relocating within the development and a roughly 15,000 square foot food hall. A hotel with 120-plus rooms is also part of the plan.

Open space is a real part of the plan as well, with at least 15 acres set aside, including a 2-acre park designed as a shared gathering space for residents.

What It Took to Acquire the Site

Shopoff Realty Investments spent roughly $239 million total acquiring the mall property, across three separate land transactions over time. The mall had been owned by multiple parties for years, including Kaiser Permanente, Shopoff Realty, True Life Companies, and Washington Prime Group. The final and largest piece, the remaining 57.5 acres, was purchased from Washington Prime Group for $144.2 million in early 2026, consolidating the site under one developer.

True Life Companies, which previously owned a piece of the mall property, is also separately building 89 condos on their portion of the site. That project, a five-story building with 80 market-rate units and 9 units set aside for lower-income buyers, sits on about 3.6 acres near the former Babies R Us. It went through Westminster Planning Commission hearings in early 2025 and is a separate approval from Bolsa Pacific, adding to the total homes coming out of the mall site.

The Groundbreaking, April 15, 2026

The official groundbreaking ceremony took place on April 15, 2026. Bill Shopoff, head of Shopoff Realty Investments, symbolically tore down the old mall sign to mark the start of construction. Demolition of the mall structure is now underway, and the site has moved from a planning exercise into an active construction project.

Why the Mall Made the News for the Wrong Reasons

Before the groundbreaking, the mall made headlines for a different reason. The property closed on October 29, 2025, ahead of demolition, and the now-vacant building quickly became a target for trespassers and vandals, including an incident where people broke in and spray painted parts of the interior.

According to the City of Westminster's official press release from January 14, 2026, police responded to more than 400 calls and made over 65 arrests at the property in the months following its closure. It is a reminder of how quickly a vacant commercial site can become a problem for a city, and it is part of why the demolition and redevelopment timeline matters to the surrounding community, not just to future residents.

What Comes Next, and What We Do Not Know Yet

The full project approval package has been submitted to the City of Westminster, with a decision expected later in 2026. From there, the expected timeline looks roughly like this:

  • 2027: Homebuilders begin purchasing finished lots, with grading and infrastructure work underway.
  • Late 2027 to early 2028: Model homes are expected to open.
  • 2030: Full project completion is targeted.

One honest gap in the information right now: there are no condo or townhome sale prices to report yet. The project is still pre-construction, and pricing typically is not released until homebuilders are under contract and closer to opening model homes. I will update this post as soon as actual pricing becomes available, rather than guess at numbers that do not exist.

Westminster's Bigger Housing Picture

Bolsa Pacific is the headline project, but it is helpful to understand how it fits into Westminster's broader housing situation. California requires Westminster to plan for 9,759 new homes by 2029, the eighth-largest requirement in Orange County. Bolsa Pacific's 2,250 units combined with True Life's 89 units account for roughly 24 percent of that total from the mall site alone.

Other active residential projects in the city add to that count. Bolsa Row, a 200-unit luxury apartment building at the corner of Brookhurst and Bolsa Avenue in Little Saigon, is already complete and occupied, with a second phase adding retail and restaurant space now underway. Sycamore Creek Plaza at Springdale Street and Dorothy Lane is a 213-unit mixed-use project with commercial space, a public plaza, and community amenities, with a groundbreaking anticipated later in 2026. Together, the known pipeline across these projects reaches approximately 2,750 units. Westminster still has a long way to go before 2029, but unlike some other OC cities, it has a state-approved housing plan and a real anchor project now under construction. You can see how Westminster compares to other cities on the OC New Developments page.

What This Means for Nearby Neighborhoods and Investors

Will it improve property values? My honest read is yes, over the long term. Research on similar mall-to-mixed-use projects consistently shows a ripple effect on nearby home values, with prices rising somewhere in the 5 to 20 percent range once a project like this matures. Better walkability, new restaurants and shops, and a neighborhood that looks and feels more alive than a half-empty mall drive that change.

Will it hurt values in the short term? Possibly, for homes immediately adjacent to the construction zone. Years of demolition, grading, and heavy equipment traffic right next door is a real disruption, and some buyers will discount a home for being close to an active construction site simply because of the noise and dust. I would expect that effect to be temporary and limited to the closest streets, not the broader neighborhood, and it tends to reverse once construction wraps and the new amenities open.

Is there traffic data available? The City's environmental study and traffic plan cover roadway improvements tied to the project, including signal and intersection changes. I was not able to pull specific traffic numbers from the publicly available documents, but those studies are posted on the City of Westminster's website for anyone who wants to dig in. In general, projects this size are required to pay for signal and intersection upgrades nearby, and I would expect Bolsa, Edwards, and Westminster Boulevard to see the most work as construction ramps up.

Should smaller investors look at nearby rental properties? It is worth a look, with some caveats. Data on rentals near mixed-use projects shows that rents in these areas tend to run higher than similar buildings further away, since renters will pay more to be close to walkable shops, restaurants, and amenities. If you are considering a small multifamily purchase near the site, factor the construction timeline into your numbers. The next few years will be noisier than the years after. I would also check whether a property sits in any area flagged for future zoning changes, since that can affect what you are allowed to do with it down the road. You can browse multi-family homes for sale in Westminster to see what is currently available near the site. Happy to run the numbers on specific properties if you are seriously looking.

Watching This One Closely

This is one of the biggest redevelopment projects in Orange County, and it is going to reshape what Westminster looks and feels like over the next several years. If you are curious about how this might affect home values in the surrounding neighborhoods, or you want to be among the first to know when pricing and model homes are announced, I would be glad to help.

Want updates on Bolsa Pacific and homes near Westminster? Call or text Eric at 949-430-7500 or visit ocrealestateinc.com.
Posted in Real Estate News
June 26, 2026

Real Estate and Divorce: A Practical Guide to Selling, Buying Out, or Refinancing

By Eric Engelbert

I went through a divorce myself, and real estate was part of it. I know firsthand how heavy that combination feels, untangling a marriage and a mortgage at the same time, often while trying to keep the rest of your life looking normal to everyone around you. That experience changed how I approach this work. This guide is the directional, practical breakdown I wish someone had handed me at the time, covering the real estate decisions that come up during divorce, the financial blind spots that catch people off guard, and how the right team around you can make a genuinely difficult process more manageable.

This is not legal or financial advice, and nothing here replaces your attorney or financial professional. Think of it as a map of the terrain so you know what questions to ask and who to bring in before decisions get made.

Why Privacy Comes First

Divorce already feels like living in a fishbowl. Neighbors notice moving trucks. Friends ask questions. The last thing anyone needs is a real estate process that broadcasts what is happening to every buyer, agent, and passerby in the neighborhood.

When I work with someone through a divorce, keeping the situation private is not an afterthought, it is part of how I structure the entire transaction. In practice, that looks like a few specific things:

  • Discreet showings. Scheduling tours when neighbor and street traffic is light, and keeping lockbox access tightly controlled rather than wide open.
  • Separate communication. If both spouses prefer not to be on the same email thread or in the same room, I can communicate with each person individually and keep things moving without forcing unnecessary contact.
  • Marketing that looks standard. The listing itself should look like any other well presented home on the market. Nothing in the photos, the description, or the showing instructions should hint that this is a forced or urgent sale, because that kind of signal invites lowball offers.

None of this changes what we owe each other in terms of honesty about the property itself. It simply means the personal circumstances behind the sale stay between us.

The Three Main Paths, and Where People Get Tripped Up

Almost every divorce involving a home lands on one of three roads. Each one has a financial blind spot worth knowing about before you decide.

Selling the home. This is the clean break option, and for a lot of couples it is the simplest path forward. The blind spot here is taxes. Under IRS rules, a married couple selling their primary residence can typically exclude up to $500,000 in capital gains, while a single person can only exclude $250,000. Timing matters. Selling while still legally married, or shortly after, versus waiting years after the divorce is final, can change the tax bill significantly depending on how much the home has appreciated.

A buyout. One spouse keeps the home and pays the other for their share of the equity, usually through a refinance that pulls cash out or pays off the departing spouse directly. This is often the emotionally preferred option, especially when kids are involved and one parent wants to keep them in the same house and school. The blind spot here is the quitclaim deed. A lot of people assume that signing a quitclaim deed, which removes a name from the title, also removes that person from the mortgage. It does not. The mortgage is a separate legal obligation, and if the spouse who keeps the home later misses a payment, it can still damage the credit of the spouse who is no longer on title. A true financial break almost always requires a refinance in the keeping spouse's name alone, not just a deed change.

Before any buyout negotiation begins, both parties need to agree on what the home is actually worth. I was trained by an appraiser and can prepare a Broker Opinion of Value that gives both sides a reliable, defensible starting point for those conversations. A BOV does not replace a formal appraisal ordered by a lender or a court, but in the early stages of a divorce negotiation it gives everyone a grounded picture of the asset being divided before attorneys start billing hours arguing over a number no one has actually verified.

A refinance or cash out refinance. Sometimes the goal is not to sell or transfer ownership outright, but to restructure the existing mortgage, either to remove one spouse from the loan, to pull equity out to cover a buyout, or to adjust the payment to something a single income can support. This path depends heavily on qualifying income, which is where the next section comes in.

Selling One Home and Buying Two: A Fourth Option Worth Knowing About

There is a fourth path that does not always come up early in the conversation, selling the marital home and using the proceeds to fund two separate purchases, one for each spouse. For some couples this ends up being the cleanest solution of all, since it gives both people a true fresh start rather than one spouse staying in a home that is full of memories of the marriage while the other rebuilds from scratch.

This option is also the most logistically complex of the four, and managing it well is where having an agent who understands divorce timelines matters most. A few of the moving parts I help coordinate:

  • Timing the sale against the court's calendar. Settlement agreements and court orders often come with specific deadlines for when the home must be sold or proceeds must be divided. The listing, marketing period, and closing all need to be planned backward from that date, not forward from when someone feels ready to list.
  • Coordinating two purchases at once. Each spouse is typically searching for a new home, working with different lenders, and operating on a different timeline. Keeping both purchases moving without one spouse's closing delaying the other's takes active coordination, especially when both are trying to close around the same proceeds from the same sale.
  • Splitting and accessing proceeds correctly. The settlement agreement usually dictates exactly how sale proceeds get divided, and escrow needs clear, specific instructions before funds can be released to each spouse. Getting this wrong can delay both new purchases.
  • Having a backup plan. If one spouse's new purchase falls through while the other's does not, there needs to be a plan for where that spouse and any children will live in the interim. Building in a reasonable buffer between the sale closing and the new purchases closing helps avoid this becoming a crisis.

Children play a major role in how this gets planned, often more than the financial details. Where each new home lands relative to the children's current school, friends, activities, and each parent's home matters a great deal, both for the kids' day to day stability and for how custody and visitation logistics will actually work in practice. Proximity to grandparents and other family who provide support is also worth weighing seriously, especially in the first year or two after the divorce when everyone is adjusting. I try to factor all of this into the home search itself, not just the financial side of the transaction, so both new homes actually work for the family's day to day life, not just the closing statement.

Building the Right Team Around You

No single professional has every answer here, and trying to make these decisions with only an attorney, or only an agent, or only a lender, tends to leave gaps. A few specialists are worth knowing about.

A Certified Divorce Financial Analyst, or CDFA, looks at the full financial picture, the home, retirement accounts, debts, and future cash flow, and helps map out which combination of assets makes sense to keep or trade. Real estate decisions made in isolation, without seeing the rest of the financial picture, can end up costing more than they save.

A Certified Divorce Lending Professional, or CDLP, understands how a divorce decree affects mortgage qualification in ways a standard loan officer often does not. For example, lenders typically need to see a set number of months of spousal support or child support payments actually received before they will count that income toward qualifying for a refinance or new purchase. A CDLP knows these timing rules and can help structure the decree language and the loan application so they actually work together.

A real estate agent who understands divorce transactions brings the privacy practices already mentioned, along with experience handling two parties who may not be communicating well, getting both signatures coordinated, and keeping the transaction moving without adding friction to an already difficult situation.

When the Property Was Owned Before the Marriage

Not every situation is the same, and one of the most common variations is when one spouse owned the home before the marriage began. In theory, separate property stays separate. In practice, it is rarely that simple.

If marital income, meaning income earned by either spouse during the marriage, was used to pay down the mortgage, fund a major renovation, or cover property taxes and upkeep over the years, the other spouse may have a legitimate claim to a portion of the equity that built up during the marriage. This is generally called commingling, and untangling it usually requires tracing exactly which funds paid for what, and when. This is precisely the kind of analysis a CDFA is trained to walk through, and it is one of the clearest examples of why guessing at these numbers on your own can leave real money on the table, in either direction.

Frequently Asked Questions

Do we have to sell the house during a divorce?
No. Selling is one option, but a buyout or a refinance can also work, depending on whether one spouse wants to keep the home and can qualify for the loan on their own.

Does a quitclaim deed remove my name from the mortgage?
No. A quitclaim deed only removes a name from the title. The mortgage is a separate legal obligation, and the only reliable way to remove a name from it is a refinance or a sale.

How much capital gains tax exclusion do I get if I sell while divorcing?
A married couple can typically exclude up to $500,000 in capital gains on the sale of a primary residence, while a single person can only exclude $250,000. Timing the sale around your marital status can make a meaningful difference.

Can alimony or child support be used to qualify for a new mortgage?
Often yes, but lenders generally require a set number of months of actual, documented receipt of that income first. A Certified Divorce Lending Professional can walk you through the specific timing your lender will require.

What if I owned the house before the marriage?
Separate property can become partially shared if marital income was used to pay the mortgage, fund renovations, or cover upkeep during the marriage. This is called commingling, and a Certified Divorce Financial Analyst can help trace exactly how much, if any, the other spouse may be entitled to.

Will anyone know my sale is related to a divorce?
Not if it is handled correctly. Discreet showings, standard marketing, and separate communication with each spouse keep the situation private and keep the listing from looking like a forced sale.

You Do Not Have to Figure This Out Alone

If you are facing a sale, a buyout, or a refinance during a divorce, I would be glad to talk through your specific situation, privately and without pressure. Having walked through this myself, I understand what is actually at stake beyond the numbers, and I will treat your situation with the same discretion I would want for my own.

Want to talk through your options privately? Call or text Eric at 949-430-7500 or visit ocrealestateinc.com.

Posted in Real Estate News