By Eric Engelbert
The Headlines Say People Are Leaving. Here Is What the Numbers Actually Show.
From 2020 to 2024, California lost a net 1.46 million residents to other states. That number gets used to argue the state is collapsing. The reality is more specific. The people leaving are not a random cross-section of California. There is a clear profile, a clear reason, and a clear set of places they are landing. And in Orange County, home prices are not reflecting the narrative at all. Inventory here is tighter now than it was a year ago, not looser. Here is what the data actually shows.
The State Numbers
From 2020 to 2024, California lost a net total of 1.46 million residents to domestic migration, people moving to other states minus people moving in from other states. In the most recent year on record, July 2024 to July 2025, that net domestic outflow grew to about 216,000 people, matching levels last seen in 2018 and 2019, per Hans Johnson at the Public Policy Institute of California.
California's overall population did grow slightly in 2025, up about 19,200 people to roughly 39,529,000. But that growth came entirely from international arrivals, about 126,000 new residents from abroad, which offset the domestic losses. Remove international migration and the state shrinks. California has been on that side of the ledger for over two decades now.
The states absorbing the most arrivals from California and other high-cost states, based on the most recent multi-year data:
- Texas, largest numeric gain in the country, adding roughly 391,000 residents in a single year
- Florida, adding roughly 197,000 residents
- South Carolina, fastest growing by percentage at around 1.5% annually
- North Carolina, largest numeric gain among Southern states outside Texas and Florida
- Arizona, consistently top five for both population growth and net domestic migration
- Idaho, around 1.4% annual growth
- Utah, driven by both migration and high birth rates
The most common destinations for Californians specifically, based on Census data, are Texas, Nevada, Arizona, Washington, Florida, Oregon, and New York, in that order.
Who Is Actually Leaving
The picture most people have of someone leaving California is a homeowner cashing out equity and starting fresh somewhere cheaper. The data does not back that up. The California Policy Lab at UC Berkeley tracked anonymized credit records from 2016 to 2025 and found that people who leave California have credit scores about 17 points lower than neighbors who stay, carry roughly $5,500 more in student debt, and have homeownership rates 33% lower. The people leaving are skewing younger, more likely renting, and under more financial pressure.
The move tends to pay off. Within a year of leaving, Californians find rents about 30%, or $631 a month, lower in their new city. The median home price where they land is roughly $396,000, or 48%, less than what they left behind. Within seven years of leaving, Californians are 48% more likely to own a home than if they had stayed.
The honest version of this story is not that everyone is leaving. It is that California is losing a disproportionate share of renters and lower-income households who are priced out, while the homeowners who can afford to stay, largely do. That distinction matters a lot when you are trying to understand what it means for local real estate.
Who Is Buying
While domestic migration flows out, international buyers have become a meaningfully larger part of who is purchasing in California. Foreign buyers spent $56 billion on US homes between April 2024 and March 2025. California captured about 15% of that volume, the second highest share of any state. Nearly 60% of those international buyers in California come from Asia or Oceania. Buyers from China alone paid cash 71% of the time at an average purchase price of about $1.2 million. Across all international buyers nationally, 56% paid cash, compared to 28% among typical US buyers.
That combination, fewer lower-income renter households able to stay, paired with a consistent wave of cash-heavy international buyers, helps explain why prices have held up even while the population narrative says people are leaving. Supply is not meeting the demand that is actually here.
What This Looks Like in Orange County
Orange County follows the same pattern as the state, just at a smaller scale. The county posted a net population loss of about 6,100 people in 2024, the most recent county-level data available. That breaks down into roughly 22,400 more people moving out to other parts of the country than moving in from other states, offset by about 29,800 more international arrivals than departures. Locals are leaving for cheaper markets. International buyers are filling part of the gap.
I have seen this on both sides of the transaction. In the past year I have sold properties for a couple who moved to Atlanta, a couple who moved to South Carolina, and a couple who moved to Utah, all trading Orange County equity for lower costs elsewhere. I am also working with buyers actively purchasing here, including an international buyer from India, which is consistent with what the national data shows.
Where the local story gets interesting is inventory. National reports have suggested Orange County supply is roughly flat year over year. My own numbers say otherwise. On June 15, 2025, total active inventory in Orange County stood at 5,121 properties. On June 15, 2026, that number had dropped to 4,800 properties, down about 6.3%. The market here is not loosening. It is tightening.
I track this weekly. The Orange County housing report on this site has the archived data going back, so you can compare June 2025 to June 2026 city by city. The tightening shows up across different buyer types. Newport Beach is driven by coastal and international demand. Laguna Niguel is move-up family demand. Yorba Linda attracts buyers looking for larger properties and the school district. All three are seeing the same supply squeeze.
What Is Happening in the Places People Are Moving To
Several years out from the peak pandemic relocation wave, the picture in destination markets has changed. Remote work flexibility is still a factor, but it has settled down as a primary driver. The main reason people are leaving California now is affordability, the same as it has been for years, just more acute.
What has also changed is that the "cheap" markets are not as cheap as they were. Years of sustained inbound migration pushed home prices well above pre-pandemic levels in places like Boise, Austin, and Salt Lake City. Someone moving from Orange County today is still getting more for their money, but the spread has narrowed since 2021 and 2022. Meanwhile, roads, schools, and water infrastructure in fast-growing metros continue to lag population growth, sometimes by years. The trade-off is real, and for buyers who move, it often still pencils out. But it is a more complicated calculation than it was four years ago.
Thinking About a Move or a Sale?
If you are watching these trends and trying to figure out what they mean for a home you own or are planning to buy in Orange County, the data is useful but it does not replace knowing your specific city and neighborhood. I track inventory, days on market, and sale prices weekly across every OC city. The market reports by city on this site are a good place to start if you want to see exactly how your area is performing right now and how that compares to a year ago.
If you are considering selling and want a realistic picture of what your home is worth in this market, or if you are thinking about buying and want to understand where inventory actually stands city by city, reach out directly.
